據(jù)鉆機(jī)地帶網(wǎng)站8月11日?qǐng)?bào)道，油價(jià)創(chuàng)下自2022年年中以來(lái)最長(zhǎng)的連續(xù)上漲，多份報(bào)告預(yù)測(cè)需求增加，這為油價(jià)上漲提供了新的動(dòng)力。油價(jià)上漲是建立在供應(yīng)中斷風(fēng)險(xiǎn)增加和沙特延長(zhǎng)減產(chǎn)的基礎(chǔ)上的。

據(jù)國(guó)際能源署(IEA)8月11日發(fā)布的月度報(bào)告稱，全球石油需求在6月份飆升至歷史最高水平，8月份可能進(jìn)一步飆升。歐佩克周四發(fā)布的月度報(bào)告預(yù)計(jì)，本季度市場(chǎng)將出現(xiàn)每日逾200萬(wàn)桶的供應(yīng)缺口。

與此同時(shí)，自6月底以來(lái)推動(dòng)油價(jià)上漲的供應(yīng)擔(dān)憂仍未減弱。近期地緣政治沖突升級(jí)，貿(mào)易商正密切關(guān)注原油在黑海地區(qū)的出口可能受到的干擾。周二，歐佩克領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者沙特阿拉伯重申了下個(gè)月自愿限制石油供應(yīng)的承諾。

西得克薩斯中質(zhì)原油收于每桶83美元上方，延續(xù)了自2022年6月以來(lái)最長(zhǎng)的七周漲幅。周四，原油期貨觸及去年11月以來(lái)的最高盤中水平。

自6月下旬以來(lái)，由于沙特阿拉伯減產(chǎn)，以及歐佩克及其盟友的出口限制，石油價(jià)格上漲。貿(mào)易商們也在繼續(xù)關(guān)注更廣泛的經(jīng)濟(jì)前景，因?yàn)槊缆?lián)儲(chǔ)(Federal Reserve)激進(jìn)加息周期的影響繼續(xù)波及市場(chǎng)，但摩根大通(JPMorgan Chase & Co.)周五表示，到9月份油價(jià)可能達(dá)到90美元。

包括Natasha Kaneva在內(nèi)的分析師參考布倫特基準(zhǔn)在一份報(bào)告中寫道，“我們認(rèn)為油價(jià)將繼續(xù)從目前的水平向每桶90美元攀升。關(guān)鍵市場(chǎng)指標(biāo)顯示，現(xiàn)貨市場(chǎng)正在迅速趨緊”。

價(jià)格：

紐約9月交付的西得克薩斯中質(zhì)原油期貨上漲37美分，收于每桶83.19美元。

布倫特原油10月期貨上漲41美分，收于每桶86.81美元。

這種供應(yīng)緊張正影響到下游的燃料市場(chǎng)，在歐洲，一種煉油后剩下的石油的價(jià)格幾十年來(lái)首次超過(guò)了原油。汽油和柴油價(jià)格也遠(yuǎn)高于季節(jié)性標(biāo)準(zhǔn)，部分原因是煉油廠限制產(chǎn)量。

郝芬 譯自 鉆機(jī)地帶網(wǎng)站

原文如下：

Oil Posts Seventh Weekly Gain as Markets Tighten

Oil posted its longest streak of gains since mid-2022 as multiple reports forecasting increased demand gave a fresh boost to a rally built on increased supply-disruption risks and extended Saudi production cuts.

Among the bullish projections was a monthly IEA report on Friday that said world oil demand surged to a record in June and may soar even higher in August . An OPEC monthly report on Thursday forecast markets will experience a sharp supply deficit of more than 2 million barrels a day this quarter.

Meanwhile, the supply concerns that have driven oil’s rally since late June have yet to abate. Traders are closely watching the potential disruption of oil exports in the Black Sea after recent escalations in the geopolitical conflicts. On Tuesday, OPEC leader Saudi Arabia reaffirmed its commitment to voluntarily curb supplies next month.

West Texas Intermediate rose to settle above $83, cementing a seven-week stretch of gains that is its longest since June 2022. Futures reached the highest intraday level since November on Thursday.

Oil has rallied since late June on cuts from Saudi Arabia, aided by export curbs from OPEC+ ally. Traders are also continuing to monitor the wider economic outlook, as the impact of the Federal Reserve’s aggressive rate-hiking cycle continues to ripple through markets, but JPMorgan Chase & Co. said Friday that prices could reach $90 by September.

“We believe prices will continue to climb from here towards $90,” analysts including Natasha Kaneva wrote in a note, referring to the Brent benchmark. “Key market gauges are pointing to a rapidly tightening physical market.”

Prices:

WTI for September delivery rose 37 cents to settle at $83.19 a barrel in New York.

Brent for October settlement advanced 41 cents to settle at $86.81 a barrel.

The tightness is flowing through to downstream fuel markets, with a type of petroleum left over from oil refining costing more than crude in Europe for the first time in decades. Prices of gasoline and diesel are also well above seasonal norms, partly as a result of refinery output curbs.