石油需求強(qiáng)勁，并可能在今年第三季度進(jìn)一步增強(qiáng)

世界上最大和第三大原油進(jìn)口國，將成為全球原油需求增長的主要推動(dòng)力

由于原油需求創(chuàng)歷史新高和供應(yīng)減少或?qū)?dǎo)致巨大的市場(chǎng)缺口，高盛銀行預(yù)計(jì)油價(jià)將在今年年底升至每桶86美元

據(jù)油價(jià)網(wǎng)2023年7月25日?qǐng)?bào)道，由于市場(chǎng)開始相信基本面反映出的狀況，同時(shí)尋找經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的跡象，布倫特原油價(jià)格最近幾天在每桶80美元上方找到了底部新高。

分析師表示，由于歐佩克+減產(chǎn)和美國頁巖產(chǎn)量增長放緩導(dǎo)致供應(yīng)緊張，同時(shí)需求強(qiáng)勁是由于亞洲兩個(gè)主要原油進(jìn)口國的高峰駕駛季節(jié)和強(qiáng)勁消費(fèi)，需求可能在第三季度進(jìn)一步加強(qiáng)。

這并不是說對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的擔(dān)憂沒有影響市場(chǎng)。相反，業(yè)內(nèi)人士繼續(xù)權(quán)衡美國和歐洲經(jīng)濟(jì)大幅下滑的可能性，以及市場(chǎng)趨緊和年底前供應(yīng)嚴(yán)重不足的預(yù)期。

但市場(chǎng)需要的緊張供需平衡的證據(jù)可能終于出現(xiàn)了。

“供應(yīng)跟不上的嚴(yán)重問題”  

世界最大能源部長國際組織的國際能源論壇(IEF)秘書長約瑟夫·麥克莫尼格爾表示，盡管需求已經(jīng)恢復(fù)到疫情前的水平，并在今年創(chuàng)下年均數(shù)據(jù)新高，但供應(yīng)卻仍難以跟上，這為今年下半年油價(jià)上漲奠定了基礎(chǔ)。

麥克莫尼格爾日前在接受CNBC記者采訪時(shí)表示，需求正在上升，從第三季度開始市場(chǎng)將出現(xiàn)大規(guī)模庫存減少并持續(xù)到明年。

麥克莫尼格爾是在出席在印度舉行的G20能源部長會(huì)議間隙接受CNBC記者采訪時(shí)發(fā)表上述講話的。他說，“因此，今年下半年我們將面臨供應(yīng)跟不上的嚴(yán)重問題，因此，你屆時(shí)將看到價(jià)格對(duì)此做出反應(yīng)”。

他補(bǔ)充說，世界上最大和第三大原油進(jìn)口國將成為全球原油需求上升的主要推動(dòng)力。

據(jù)麥克莫尼格爾稱，今年下半年，兩國原油日需求量預(yù)計(jì)將增加200萬桶。

“我們將看到庫存大幅下降，這將向市場(chǎng)發(fā)出需求肯定在回升的信號(hào)。所以你會(huì)看到價(jià)格對(duì)此做出反應(yīng)。”麥克莫尼格爾告訴CNBC記者。

麥克莫尼格爾指出，如果需求超出預(yù)期并市場(chǎng)過度收緊，歐佩克+產(chǎn)油國可能會(huì)采取行動(dòng)，取消目前的部分減產(chǎn)量。

需求不斷上升

國際能源論壇7月早些時(shí)候援引總部設(shè)在利雅得的聯(lián)合石油數(shù)據(jù)庫(JODI)公布的數(shù)據(jù)稱，5月份全球原油需求比4月份平均每天增加300多萬桶，接近今年3月份的歷史最高需求水平。

美國能源信息署(EIA)也預(yù)測(cè)，庫存下降將從今年第三季度開始并持續(xù)到2024年第四季度，這將給油價(jià)帶來上行預(yù)期。EIA在其7月份的短期能源展望(STEO)報(bào)告中表示，今年上半年，全球原油庫存平均日增60萬桶，但今年下半年將平均每天減少70萬桶。

高盛銀行預(yù)計(jì)，由于原油需求創(chuàng)新高和供應(yīng)減少將導(dǎo)致市場(chǎng)出現(xiàn)大規(guī)模供應(yīng)缺口，油價(jià)將在今年年底升至每桶86美元。

高盛銀行石油研究主管Daan Struyven近日對(duì)CNBC記者表示，“由于需求達(dá)到歷史新高，我們預(yù)計(jì)下半年需求將出現(xiàn)相當(dāng)大的缺口，第三季度石油日需求缺口將接近200萬桶”。

經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退可能性下降

高盛銀行分析師對(duì)美國可能避免經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的看法也更為樂觀。之前對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的擔(dān)憂令油價(jià)承壓，今年第二季度油價(jià)跌至每桶80美元以下。

上周，高盛銀行將美國經(jīng)濟(jì)在未來12個(gè)月開始衰退的可能性從25%下調(diào)至20%，原因是最近的經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)增強(qiáng)了高盛銀行的信心，“將通脹降至可接受的水平并不會(huì)導(dǎo)致衰退”，高盛銀行研究部主管、首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家簡(jiǎn)·哈祖斯如是說。

高盛銀行分析師和許多其他分析師一致認(rèn)為，市場(chǎng)普遍預(yù)計(jì)美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)將在7月26日的會(huì)議上加息。但許多人認(rèn)為，這可能是貨幣緊縮周期的結(jié)束。原油市場(chǎng)將密切關(guān)注美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的決定。

OANDA高級(jí)市場(chǎng)分析師埃德·莫亞表示：“原油價(jià)格正在試探性地突破限制，因?yàn)楸M管全球經(jīng)濟(jì)正在出現(xiàn)疲軟，但人們?nèi)匀活A(yù)期原油市場(chǎng)將保持緊張。”而近日油價(jià)反彈至三個(gè)月高位，布倫特原油價(jià)格突破每桶82美元。

如果美國成功地避免了經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退，而亞洲加大經(jīng)濟(jì)刺激力度以幫助今年下半年反彈，原油市場(chǎng)參與者將更多地關(guān)注基本面，也就是今年晚些時(shí)候石油市場(chǎng)即將出現(xiàn)的供應(yīng)短缺和價(jià)格上漲。

李峻 譯自 油價(jià)網(wǎng)

原文如下：

Demand Surge Set To Push Oil Prices Higher This Year

·     Demand is robust and likely to further strengthen during the third quarter.

·     The world’s largest and third-largest oil importers, respectively, will be the key drivers of rising oil demand.

·     Goldman Sachs expects oil prices to rise to $86 per barrel at year-end, as record-high oil demand and lowered supply will lead to a large market deficit

Brent oil prices have found a new higher floor at above $80 per barrel in recent days as the market starts to believe in fundamentals while looking out for signs of a recession.

As supply is tightening due to the OPEC+ cuts and a slowdown in U.S. shale production growth, demand is robust and likely to further strengthen during the third quarter with peak driving season and strong consumption in the two leading Asian crude importers, analysts say.

That’s not to say that fears of recessions aren’t influencing the market. On the contrary, participants continue to weigh the likelihood of a material downturn in the U.S. and Europe against expectations of a tightening market and large supply deficits through the end of the year.

But the evidence of tight supply-demand balances that the market needed may finally be here.

“Serious Problems With Supply Keeping Up”

While demand has already returned to pre-pandemic levels and set for a record annual average this year, supply is having trouble keeping up, setting the stage for higher oil prices in the second half of this year, according to Joseph McMonigle, Secretary General of International Energy Forum (IEF), the world’s largest international organization of energy ministers.

Demand is rising, and the market will see massive inventory draws beginning this quarter and lasting through next year, McMonigle told CNBC in an interview this weekend.

“So, for the second half of this year, we’re going to have serious problems with supply keeping up, and as a result, you’re going to see prices respond to that,” McMonigle told CNBC on the sidelines of a G20 energy ministers meeting in India.

The world’s largest and third-largest oil importers, respectively, will be the key drivers of rising oil demand, he added.

Combined, these two countries are expected to account for 2 million barrels per day (bpd) of demand increase in the second half of this year, according to McMonigle.

“We’re going to see much more steep decreases in inventory, which will be a signal to the market that demand is definitely picking up. So you’re going to see prices respond to that,” he told CNBC.

In case of demand exceeding expectations and tightening the market too much, OPEC+ producers could move to unwind some of the current cuts, the IEF secretary general noted.

Demand Rising

Global oil demand jumped by more than 3 million bpd in May compared to April, nearing the record demand level seen in March this year, the IEF said earlier this month, citing data by the Joint Organizations Data Initiative (JODI).

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) also forecasts inventory drawdowns to start this quarter and continue until the fourth quarter of 2024, putting upward pressure on oil prices. Global oil inventories increased by an average of 600,000 bpd in the first half of 2023, but they will fall by an average of 700,000 bpd in the second half, the EIA said in its July Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO).

Goldman Sachs expects oil prices to rise to $86 per barrel at year-end, as record-high oil demand and lowered supply will lead to a large market deficit.

“We expect pretty sizable deficits in the second half with deficits of almost 2 million barrels per day in the third quarter as demand reaches an all-time high,” Daan Struyven, head of oil research at Goldman Sachs, told CNBC on Monday.

Recession Odds Decline

Goldman’s analysts are also more optimistic that the U.S. could avoid a recession, fears of which have kept oil prices weighed down and below $80 per barrel in the second quarter of the year.

Last week, Goldman Sachs cut its probability that a U.S. recession will start in the next 12 months further, from 25% to 20%, due to the fact that the recent economic data have reinforced the bank’s confidence that “bringing inflation down to an acceptable level will not require a recession,” wrote Jan Hatzius, head of Goldman Sachs Research and the firm’s chief economist.

The Fed is largely expected to raise interest rates at the July 26 meeting, Goldman and many other analysts concur. But many believe this could be the end of the money-tightening cycle. The oil market will be closely watching the Fed decision—and most of all, the comments by Fed Chair Jerome Powell accompanying the decision—for clues about the economy.

“Crude prices are tentatively breaking out as expectations remain for the oil market to remain tight despite all global weakness that is emerging,” Ed Moya, senior market analyst at OANDA, said on Monday as oil prices rallied to a three-month high and Brent topped $82 per barrel. 

If the U.S. succeeds in avoiding a recession and Asia increases economic stimulus to help a rebound in the second half of 2023, oil market participants will focus more on fundamentals, which have started to point to a supply deficit and higher prices later this year.