據(jù)鉆井地帶網(wǎng)7月10日?qǐng)?bào)道，花旗銀行全球商品研究主管埃德·莫爾斯在接受鉆井地帶網(wǎng)站采訪時(shí)表示，沙特阿拉伯對(duì)全球需求疲軟非常敏感。

莫爾斯補(bǔ)充道：“市場(chǎng)疲軟的另一個(gè)因素似乎是供應(yīng)過(guò)剩，不僅來(lái)自美國(guó)，還來(lái)自‘五個(gè)脆弱的’歐佩克國(guó)家，這些國(guó)家在2023年6月的石油產(chǎn)量為1056萬(wàn)桶/日，而在2022年6月的產(chǎn)量為970萬(wàn)桶/日。”

他告訴鉆井地帶，考慮到原本沙特宣布的每日減產(chǎn)100萬(wàn)桶未能對(duì)油價(jià)產(chǎn)生任何實(shí)質(zhì)性的影響，“正如預(yù)期的那樣，他們將減產(chǎn)延長(zhǎng)了一個(gè)月”。

需求和產(chǎn)量

根據(jù)EIA今年6月發(fā)布的最新短期能源展望（STEO），第一季度石油和其他液體燃料的總消費(fèi)量為每天9993萬(wàn)桶。該展望預(yù)計(jì)第二季度的消費(fèi)量將達(dá)到每天10081萬(wàn)桶，第三季度為每天10160萬(wàn)桶，第四季度為每天10169萬(wàn)桶。

STEO顯示，第一季度石油和其他液體燃料的總產(chǎn)量為每天10106萬(wàn)桶。該展望預(yù)計(jì)第二季度的產(chǎn)量將達(dá)到每天10133萬(wàn)桶，第三季度為每天10140萬(wàn)桶，第四季度為每天10169萬(wàn)桶。

根據(jù)STEO數(shù)據(jù)，美國(guó)石油和其他液體燃料的產(chǎn)量在第一季度為每天2102萬(wàn)桶，預(yù)計(jì)第二季度將達(dá)到每天2126萬(wàn)桶，第三季度為每天2134萬(wàn)桶，第四季度為每天2141萬(wàn)桶，2023年全年為每天2126萬(wàn)桶。STEO強(qiáng)調(diào)表示，2022年美國(guó)的產(chǎn)量為每天2021萬(wàn)桶。

STEO指出，歐佩克石油和其他液體燃料的總產(chǎn)量在今年第一季度為每天3395萬(wàn)桶。該展望預(yù)計(jì)第二季度為每天3373萬(wàn)桶，第三季度為每天3317萬(wàn)桶，第四季度為每天3321萬(wàn)桶，2023年全年為每天3351萬(wàn)桶。STEO顯示，2022年歐佩克的總產(chǎn)量為每天3417萬(wàn)桶。

唯一選擇是延長(zhǎng)減產(chǎn)

惠譽(yù)解決方案（BMI）石油和天然氣部門主管約瑟夫·加特杜拉上周告訴鉆井地帶網(wǎng)站：“考慮到自6月初首次宣布減產(chǎn)以來(lái)油價(jià)的疲軟，沙特阿拉伯唯一的選擇就是將自愿減產(chǎn)延長(zhǎng)到8月。”

加特杜拉補(bǔ)充道：“削減或取消減產(chǎn)將為時(shí)過(guò)早，很可能對(duì)油價(jià)產(chǎn)生強(qiáng)烈的下行壓力，因?yàn)樾苁星榫w占據(jù)了價(jià)格行動(dòng)的主導(dǎo)地位。”

在7月4日上午發(fā)送給鉆井地帶網(wǎng)站的一份石油交易簡(jiǎn)報(bào)中，雷斯塔能源高級(jí)副總裁喬治·萊昂和雷斯塔能源高級(jí)分析師帕特里西奧·瓦爾迪維埃索指出，市場(chǎng)立即對(duì)沙特阿拉伯的減產(chǎn)延期公告做出了反應(yīng)。

“雷斯塔能源認(rèn)為，這一舉措強(qiáng)化了我們的觀點(diǎn)，即沙特減產(chǎn)可能每月延長(zhǎng)一次，從而限制了今年余下時(shí)間內(nèi)價(jià)格的下行壓力，無(wú)論宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境如何。”分析師在簡(jiǎn)報(bào)中說(shuō)道。

胡耀東 譯自 鉆井地帶 網(wǎng)站

原文如下：

Saudis Sensitive to Weak Level of Demand

Saudi Arabia is sensitive to the “weak level” of demand in the world, according to Ed Morse, the Global Head of Commodities Research at Citi.

“Another factor in market weakness appears to be too much supply, not just from the United States, but from the ‘Fragile Five’ OPEC countries, which combined produced 10.56 million barrels per day in June 2023, against 9.7 million barrels per day in June 2022,” Morse added.

The Citi Head told Rigzone that, given the lack of any concrete price response to the original one million barrel per day cut the Saudis announced for July, “as expected they extended their cuts by another month”.

Demand, Production

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) latest short term energy outlook (STEO), which was released in June, total petroleum and other liquids consumption came in at 99.93 million barrels per day in the first quarter of the year. This figure is projected in the STEO to be 100.81 million barrels per day in the second quarter, 101.60 million barrels per day in the third quarter, and 101.69 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter.

Total petroleum and other liquids production was 101.06 million barrels per day in the first quarter, the STEO showed. The STEO expects this figure to come in at 101.33 million barrels per day in the second quarter, 101.40 million barrels per day in the third quarter, and 101.69 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter.

U.S. petroleum and other liquids production was 21.02 million barrels per day in the first quarter, according to the STEO, which projected the country’s output to come in at 21.26 million barrels per day in the second quarter, 21.34 million barrels per day in the third quarter, 21.41 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter, and 21.26 million barrels per day for the whole of 2023. U.S. production was 20.21 million barrels per day in 2022, the STEO highlighted.

Total OPEC petroleum and other liquids production was 33.95 million barrels per day in the first quarter of the year, the STEO outlined. The STEO anticipates that this figure will be 33.73 million barrels per day in the second quarter, 33.17 million barrels per day in the third quarter, 33.21 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter, and 33.51 million barrels per day in 2023 overall. Total OPEC output was 34.17 million barrels per day in 2022, the STEO showed.

only Option Was to Extend

Joseph Gatdula, the Head of Oil and Gas at BMI, a Fitch Solutions company, told Rigzone last week that “Saudi Arabia’s only option was to extend voluntary cuts into August given weakness in oil prices seen since they were first announced in early June”.

“A reduction or roll-back in the cuts would have been premature and likely would have had strong downside impacts to prices, as bearish sentiment is dominating price action,” Gatdula added.

In an oil trading alert sent to Rigzone on the morning of July 4, Rystad Energy Senior Vice President Jorge Leon and Rystad Senior Analyst Patricio Valdivieso outlined that the markets immediately reacted to Saudi Arabia’s production cut extension announcement.

“Rystad Energy believes that this move reinforces our thesis that this mechanism of a possible monthly extension of Saudi cuts limits downside price pressure for the rest of the year, regardless of the macroeconomic environment,” the analysts said in the alert.