據(jù)烴加工網(wǎng)5月22日報道，大宗商品貿(mào)易商維多集團(tuán)(Vitol)的一位高管周一表示，亞洲將引領(lǐng)今年下半年石油需求增長約200萬桶/日，這一增長可能導(dǎo)致供應(yīng)短缺并推高油價。

國際基準(zhǔn)布倫特原油價格已從去年3月近140美元的峰值降至每桶75美元左右。

歐佩克+在4月份宣布的意外自愿減產(chǎn)，為油價提供了支持。該組織將于6月4日再次開會審查產(chǎn)量政策。

維多亞洲區(qū)總裁Mike Muller在迪拜舉行的中東石油和天然氣會議上表示，“即將進(jìn)入下半年，主要得益于亞洲需求的增長，全球每天的需求將比現(xiàn)在增加約200萬桶。對于那些問歐佩克+是否需要從市場上削減更多石油的人，我會讓你們得出自己的結(jié)論”。

Muller的觀點(diǎn)與國際能源署（IEA）的言論相呼應(yīng)，IEA在歐佩克+4月份宣布減產(chǎn)后不久表示，歐佩克可能會加劇預(yù)計在今年下半年出現(xiàn)的石油供應(yīng)短缺。

能源咨詢公司FGE董事長Fereidun Fesharaki也在迪拜會議上發(fā)言稱，如果需求如預(yù)期般增長，全球可能面臨供應(yīng)問題，因西方制裁抑制了產(chǎn)量增長。

如今他稱，隨著許多國家轉(zhuǎn)向低碳能源，歐佩克將尋求在化石燃料需求達(dá)到峰值之前將石油資源貨幣化。

Fesharaki表示，他看到了“將油價維持在每桶80美元以上的愿望，如果市場收緊，則將超過100美元”。

出席此次活動的歐佩克秘書長Haitham Al Ghais沒有討論短期問題，但重申了對石油和天然氣行業(yè)長期投資不足可能導(dǎo)致市場波動的警告。

他還表示，世界需要專注于減少溫室氣體排放，而不是用另一種能源取代一種能源，所有能源部門都需要進(jìn)行重大投資。

郝芬 譯自 烴加工網(wǎng)

原文如下：

Asia to drive oil demand growth in second half, says Vitol

Asia will lead oil demand growth of around 2 million barrels per day (bpd) in the second half of the year, a senior executive at Vitol said on Monday, an increase that could potentially lead to a shortage of supply and drive up prices.

International benchmark Brent crude has fallen to around $75 a barrel from a peak of nearly $140 in March last year.

Prices have drawn support from surprise voluntary output cuts by some members of OPEC+ announced in April. The group meets again on June 4 to review output policy.

"We are going into the second half of the year where, largely thanks to Asian demand growth, the world is going to need about 2 million bpd more than it needs now," Mike Muller, Vitol Asia president, told the Middle East Petroleum & Gas Conference in Dubai.

"For those of you asking whether OPEC+ needs to take more off the market or not, I will then let you draw your own conclusions," he said.

Muller's view echoes remarks from the International Energy Agency, which shortly after OPEC+ announced its output cut in April, said the producer group risked exacerbating an oil supply deficit expected in the second half of the year.

Also speaking at the Dubai conference, Fereidun Fesharaki, chairman of the FGE energy consultancy said the world could face a supply problem as Western sanctions on oil curtail production growth if demand growth rises as predicted.

Now he said OPEC would seek to monetize oil resources before demand for fossil fuel peaks as many countries shift towards low carbon energy.

Fesharaki said he saw "a desire to keep oil prices above $80 a barrel and a willingness to go over $100 if the market tightens".

OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais, who attended the event, did not discuss the short term, but reiterated a warning that underinvestment in the oil and gas sector in the long term could cause market volatility.

He also said the world needs to focus on reducing greenhouse gas emissions rather than replacing one form of energy with another, and that major investments were needed in all energy sectors.

"That is the truth that needs to be spoken," Al Ghais said.