據(jù)阿拉伯貿(mào)易網(wǎng)2023年3月13日倫敦報(bào)道，惠譽(yù)國際評(píng)級(jí)(Fitch Ratings)上調(diào)了2024年至2025年的油價(jià)預(yù)期，預(yù)計(jì)地緣政治問題將延長油價(jià)回落至較低長期水平的時(shí)間。

惠譽(yù)國際評(píng)級(jí)表示，它還下調(diào)了2023年對(duì)歐洲TTF和美國亨利中心天然氣價(jià)格的假設(shè)，反映了歐洲需求的減少，主要是由于需求破壞、充足的液化天然氣供應(yīng)、高于平均水平的天然氣庫存水平以及美國產(chǎn)量將增加的預(yù)期。

惠譽(yù)國際評(píng)級(jí)認(rèn)為，2024年布倫特原油價(jià)格為75美元/桶(早期假設(shè)為65美元/桶)，2025年為65美元/桶(早期假設(shè)為53美元/桶)。 

惠譽(yù)國際評(píng)級(jí)說：“我們上調(diào)2024至2025年油價(jià)假設(shè)反映了我們的觀點(diǎn)，即由于供應(yīng)收緊以及歐佩克+對(duì)供應(yīng)增加的謹(jǐn)慎態(tài)度，原油價(jià)格將需要更長的時(shí)間才能放緩。鑒于全球備用產(chǎn)能相當(dāng)?shù)停倚枨蟛粩嘣黾樱衅趦?nèi)市場(chǎng)可能仍將吃緊。不過，我們預(yù)計(jì)市場(chǎng)將逐漸調(diào)整，尤其是得益于歐佩克以外(尤其是美國)的原油產(chǎn)量增長，以及歐佩克國家(尤其是沙特阿拉伯和阿聯(lián)酋)產(chǎn)能增加的前景。”

惠譽(yù)國際評(píng)級(jí)已將2023年至2025年布倫特原油和WTI原油之間價(jià)差的假設(shè)提高到每桶5美元，這反映了當(dāng)前市場(chǎng)價(jià)差的擴(kuò)大，由于運(yùn)輸成本上升和市場(chǎng)波動(dòng)，價(jià)差短期內(nèi)不太可能縮小。惠譽(yù)國際評(píng)級(jí)預(yù)計(jì)，從2026年起，這一價(jià)差將縮小至每桶3美元。

惠譽(yù)國際評(píng)級(jí)說：“我們對(duì)2023年布倫特原油和長期油價(jià)的假設(shè)保持不變。目前市場(chǎng)供需基本平衡，盡管需求市場(chǎng)逐步重新開放，這可能會(huì)增加需求，而產(chǎn)能大國的石油出口迄今為止已經(jīng)改道，而不是實(shí)質(zhì)性減少。我們的油價(jià)長期假設(shè)反映了能源轉(zhuǎn)型導(dǎo)致的長期需求下降。”

李峻 編譯自 阿拉伯貿(mào)易網(wǎng)

原文如下：

Fitch Ratings raises oil price assumptions for 2024-2025

Fitch Ratings has increased its oil price assumptions for 2024-2025 on the expectation that geopolitical issues will extend the period before prices moderate towards lower, long-term levels. 

It has also reduced its 2023 assumptions for European TTF and US Henry Hub gas prices for 2023-2024, reflecting reduced demand in Europe, primarily due to demand destruction, ample LNG supplies, higher-than-average gas levels in storage and its expectation that production in the US will increase, said Fitch Ratings.

Fitch assumes a Brent price of $75/bbl in 2024 (old assumption - $65) and $65 in 2025 (old assumption $53/bbl). 

"Our increased 2024-2025 oil price assumptions reflect our view that it will take longer for prices to moderate due to tightening supply from Opec+’s cautious approach to supply increases. The market is likely to remain tight over the medium term, given fairly low spare capacity and increasing demand. However, we expect the market to gradually adjust, particularly thanks to production growth outside Opec (particularly in the US) and the prospect of capacity increases in Opec countries (particularly in Saudi Arabi and the UAE)," it said.

It has increased its assumption for the Brent-WTI differential to $5/bbl for 2023-2025, reflecting the wider current market differential, which is unlikely to shrink in the near term because of higher shipping costs and market volatility. It assumes the differential will shrink to $3/bbl from 2026.

"Our 2023 Brent and long-term oil price assumptions remain unchanged. The market is currently broadly balanced, despite market’s gradual reopening, which could potentially increase demand while oil exports have been re-routed so far, rather than materially reduced. Our long-term assumptions reflect falling long-term demand due to the energy transition."