據(jù)美國鉆井網(wǎng)站2022年8月11日報(bào)道，海上風(fēng)電產(chǎn)業(yè)已經(jīng)不再處于起步階段，它是一項(xiàng)已經(jīng)過驗(yàn)證的技術(shù)，它將在全球經(jīng)濟(jì)脫碳中發(fā)揮關(guān)鍵作用。伍德麥肯茲表示，未來十年，海上風(fēng)電產(chǎn)業(yè)將吸引近1萬億美元的新投資。

伍德麥克茲表示，越來越多的競爭對手正蜂擁而至，希望利用這股熱潮將創(chuàng)造的巨大機(jī)遇。目前，石油巨頭——尤其是歐洲的石油巨頭——在這個(gè)海上風(fēng)電市場上所占的份額還很小，但隨著它們在零碳價(jià)值鏈上押下更大的賭注，它們的雄心正在增強(qiáng)。

長期以來，上游行業(yè)一直以每桶油當(dāng)量（boe）為基礎(chǔ)分析現(xiàn)金利潤率。這一易于理解的指標(biāo)揭示了上游油氣資產(chǎn)每單位生產(chǎn)產(chǎn)生的經(jīng)營現(xiàn)金流。這對于闡明現(xiàn)金產(chǎn)生能力和基準(zhǔn)投資組合特別有用。 

傳統(tǒng)的可再生能源投資分析與油氣投資相比，通常側(cè)重于相對風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和回報(bào)。但伍德麥肯茲聲稱，與傳統(tǒng)業(yè)務(wù)的比較需要新的衡量標(biāo)準(zhǔn)。這家分析公司使用的新的現(xiàn)金利潤率指標(biāo)——吉焦當(dāng)量（GJe）的營運(yùn)現(xiàn)金流——超越了傳統(tǒng)的比較，它揭示了海上風(fēng)電產(chǎn)業(yè)的優(yōu)勢。

通過追蹤資產(chǎn)數(shù)據(jù)，海上風(fēng)電產(chǎn)業(yè)將為石油巨頭帶來比新油田油氣項(xiàng)目高25%的單位運(yùn)營現(xiàn)金利潤率。即使是最低的海上風(fēng)電投資組合的平均運(yùn)營現(xiàn)金利潤率也高于上游的平均水平。而且，可再生能源技術(shù)的利潤率超過了深水——這是石油巨頭利潤率最高的資產(chǎn)類別。

海上風(fēng)能的強(qiáng)勁營運(yùn)現(xiàn)金利潤率表現(xiàn)表明，其財(cái)務(wù)獎(jiǎng)勵(lì)不僅僅是長期穩(wěn)定的現(xiàn)金流。這樣的現(xiàn)金收入可以很好地支持其他投資組合領(lǐng)域，實(shí)際上，也可以提供大量股息，并對沖碳和碳?xì)浠衔飪r(jià)格的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。 

如果海上風(fēng)電產(chǎn)業(yè)想要吸引到所需的資本，在實(shí)現(xiàn)全球氣候目標(biāo)方面發(fā)揮作用，那么海上風(fēng)電項(xiàng)目不斷下降的內(nèi)部收益率將是不可持續(xù)的。伍德麥克茲認(rèn)為，中位數(shù)的回報(bào)率是不可接受的。

企業(yè)已經(jīng)開始依賴傳統(tǒng)的債務(wù)融資和資產(chǎn)循環(huán)工具來提高內(nèi)部收益率。隨著該行業(yè)的成熟，其他手段也將發(fā)揮作用，以提高回報(bào)，如增加商業(yè)敞口、電力交易和建設(shè)電力-x項(xiàng)目。 

伍德麥肯茲還在報(bào)告中表示，石油巨頭可能會(huì)在海上風(fēng)力發(fā)電方面進(jìn)行長期嘗試，因?yàn)樵撔袠I(yè)并非沒有挑戰(zhàn)。供應(yīng)導(dǎo)致的成本上漲和債務(wù)成本上升的烏云籠罩著海上風(fēng)力發(fā)電，該行業(yè)目前正努力應(yīng)對供應(yīng)過剩的問題，而下一代技術(shù)的需求意味著將需要大規(guī)模投資來支持新的塔式生產(chǎn)設(shè)施。 

但經(jīng)過多年對石油和天然氣波動(dòng)的管理，石油巨頭已經(jīng)具備在風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和回報(bào)之間取得平衡的能力。石油巨頭手頭寬裕，可以充分利用即將到來的巨大機(jī)遇。在最近創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的石油和天然氣價(jià)格以及創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄季度利潤的幫助下，石油巨頭肯定已準(zhǔn)備好這樣做。 

李峻 編譯自 美國鉆井網(wǎng)

原文如下：

Big Oil To Go Deep Into Trillion-Dollar Offshore Wind Industry 

No longer in its infancy, offshore wind is a proven technology on course to play a key role in the decarbonization of the global economy. Over the next decade, the industry will attract almost $1 trillion in new investment, Wood Mackenzie said.

According to Woodmac, a growing number of competitors are flocking to take advantage of the massive opportunities that will be created by the boom. The Majors – notably the European Majors – are no exception. Right now, their share of the market is small, but ambition is ramping up as they bet bigger with their investments in the zero-carbon value chain.

The upstream sector has long analyzed cash margins on a per barrel of oil equivalent (boe) basis. This well-understood metric reveals how much operating cashflow upstream oil and gas assets generate per unit of production. It’s especially useful for articulating cash generation capacity and benchmarking portfolios.

Conventional analysis of renewables pitted against oil and gas investment usually focuses on relative risk and returns. But Woodmac claims that the comparison with the legacy business needs new metrics. The new cash margin metric used by the analytics firm – operating cash flow per gigajoule equivalent (GJe) – goes beyond traditional comparisons, and it reveals that offshore wind comes up trumps.

Tracking asset-by-asset data, offshore wind will deliver 25 percent higher unit operating cash margins for Big Oil in comparison to new field oil and gas projects. Even the lowest offshore wind portfolio average operating cash margin is above the upstream average. And the renewable technology’s margins trump deepwater – Big Oil’s highest margin asset class.

Offshore wind’s strong operating cash margin performance shows that the financial prize is more than simply long-term and steady cash flows. Such a cash wedge within a business is a good way to support other portfolio areas or, indeed, a significant dividend commitment, and to hedge exposure to carbon and hydrocarbon prices.

Returns do matter. Falling IRRs from offshore wind projects will not be sustainable if the sector is to attract the capital required for it to play its part in meeting global climate goals. Woodmac believes that mid-single digit returns will not be acceptable.

Companies have already been leaning on traditional tools of debt-financing and asset rotation to lift IRRs. As the sector matures other levers, such as increasing merchant exposure, power trading, and building power-to-x projects, will also come into play to boost returns.

Wood Mackenzie also said in its report that the Majors could play the long game with offshore wind as the industry is not without challenges. Dark clouds of supply-led cost inflation and the rising cost of debt are looming large over offshore wind and the industry is currently grappling with oversupply, while the demands of next-generation technology mean that massive investment will be needed to back new tower production facilities.

But after years of managing volatility in oil and gas, the Majors are equipped to get the balance between risk and return right. And they are flush with deep pockets of cash to take advantage of the huge upcoming opportunities. Helped by recent record prices of oil and gas as well as record quarterly profits, they are certainly well posed to do so.