據全球能源新聞網7月23日報道，預計美國天然氣產量將在未來幾個月創下歷史新高，日產量將超過1000億立方英尺，在全球面臨嚴重供應短缺的情況下，以滿足全球需求。

根據雷斯塔能源的分析顯示，除了來自二疊紀的伴生天然氣產量，美國主要天然氣生產流域海恩斯維爾和阿巴拉契亞的產量增長，將鞏固該國作為世界最大天然氣生產國的地位，擴大其領先其他產能大國的優勢，并超過EIA的官方增長預期。

在頁巖氣領域，馬塞勒斯、尤蒂卡和海恩斯維爾地區的貢獻最大。然而，阿巴拉契亞地區的增長完全依賴于擬議中的Mountain Valley管道的進展，這仍面臨著重大的法律阻礙。

與2021年相比，僅恩斯維爾區塊今年的日產量預計將增長26億立方英尺，使該區塊的年產量超過14億立方英尺/天。預計該流域的總產量明年也將大幅增加，到2023年底達到172億立方英尺/天。在美國的其他地區，伍德福德盆地的天然氣產量也可能在2023年對總產量的增長作出重大貢獻，日產量將增加10億立方英尺。

近期全球天然氣價格飆升推動美國勘探和生產公司增加投資，以利用具有競爭力的盈虧平衡成本。

在歐洲努力緩解對產能大國天然氣的依賴之際，歐洲天然氣供應出現明顯短缺，這推動歐洲大陸的天然氣價格不斷走高。盡管美國國內市場價格相對較高，但美國和歐洲的價格差異如此巨大，生產和運輸美國天然氣，即使考慮到昂貴的液化過程，在經濟上仍然具有優勢。

在歐洲和美國，天然氣價格的衡量方式不同，但將歐洲價格換算成每百萬英熱單位的美元標準可以進行直接比較。自2020年夏季以來，美歐價差穩步擴大。當時，不同尋常的市場基本面因素導致美國基準亨利基準指數（Henry Hub）和歐洲基準荷蘭基準指數（Dutch TTF）異常接近。地緣政治沖突和隨后的全球能源危機已經加大了差距。截至7月15日，Henry Hub的價格為7美元/百萬英熱單位，而TTF的價格為驚人的47美元/百萬英熱單位，幾乎是美國價格的7倍。然而，液化天然氣產能的限制將限制美國向國際運輸的天然氣數量。

雷斯塔能源公司高級分析師Kristine Vassbotn表示，美國已經是世界上最大的天然氣生產國，準備進一步提高產量以滿足全球需求，但向外銷售限制是一個嚴重的風險。然而，隨著2024年之后預計將增加新的液化天然氣產能，美國在未來一段時間內將在全球天然氣市場中發揮更大的作用。

郝芬 譯自 全球能源新聞網

原文如下:

US GAS PRODUCTION TO REACH RECORD HIGH BY THE END OF 2022 WITH MORE GROWTH TO COME

US natural gas production is forecast to hit an all-time high in the coming months, racing past 100 billion cubic feet per day (Bcfd), helping feed global demand as the world faces a severe supply shortage. 

Rystad Energy’s analysis shows that production growth from the major US gas-producing basins of the Haynesville and Appalachia, in addition to associated gas volumes from the Permian, will solidify the country’s position as the world’s largest gas producer, stretching its lead over the larger producer, and surpassing the official growth expectations of the EIA.

Within shale gas plays, the Marcellus, Utica and Haynesville are set to contribute the most. Growth in Appalachia, however, is entirely dependent on the progress of the proposed Mountain Valley Pipeline, which still faces significant legal hurdles. 

Production from the Haynesville alone is expected to grow by a staggering 2.6 Bcfd this year compared to 2021, pushing annual output from the play to more than 14 Bcfd. Total production from the basin is forecast to jump next year too, reaching 17.2 Bcfd by the end of 2023. Elsewhere in the US, gas production from the Woodford basin could also contribute major growth to total output in 2023, with a 1 Bcfd expansion not off the table.

Recent global gas price surges are driving increased investment by US exploration and production companies looking to capitalize on competitive breakeven costs. 

A well-documented European supply shortage amid efforts to ease reliance on Russian gas is pushing prices on the continent ever higher. Although relatively elevated for the domestic market, US and European price differences are so wide producing and shipping US gas across the Atlantic, even accounting for the pricey liquefaction process, is still economically advantageous.

Gas prices are measured differently in Europe and the US but converting European prices to the US-standard dollars per million British thermal units (MMBtu) allows a direct comparison. The US-Europe price spread has widened steadily since summer 2020, when unusual market fundamentals brought the Henry Hub – the US benchmark – and the Dutch TTF – the European marker – unusually close.The war and the ensuing global energy crisis has accelerated the disparity. As of July 15, the Henry Hub was $7 per MMBtu, whereas the TTF stood at a staggering $47 per MMBtu, almost seven times the US price. However, LNG capacity constraints will limit how much gas the US can ship internationally.

“Already the top gas producer in the world, the US stands ready to boost output further to meet the global demand, but takeaway constraints are a serious risk. However, with new LNG capacity expected to be added after 2024, the US is set to grow its role in global gas markets for some time to come,” says Kristine Vassbotn, Rystad Energy senior analyst.