據(jù)全球能源新聞網(wǎng)7月23日?qǐng)?bào)道，預(yù)計(jì)美國(guó)天然氣產(chǎn)量將在未來(lái)幾個(gè)月創(chuàng)下歷史新高，日產(chǎn)量將超過(guò)1000億立方英尺，在全球面臨嚴(yán)重供應(yīng)短缺的情況下，以滿足全球需求。

根據(jù)雷斯塔能源的分析顯示，除了來(lái)自二疊紀(jì)的伴生天然氣產(chǎn)量，美國(guó)主要天然氣生產(chǎn)流域海恩斯維爾和阿巴拉契亞的產(chǎn)量增長(zhǎng)，將鞏固該國(guó)作為世界最大天然氣生產(chǎn)國(guó)的地位，擴(kuò)大其領(lǐng)先其他產(chǎn)能大國(guó)的優(yōu)勢(shì)，并超過(guò)EIA的官方增長(zhǎng)預(yù)期。

在頁(yè)巖氣領(lǐng)域，馬塞勒斯、尤蒂卡和海恩斯維爾地區(qū)的貢獻(xiàn)最大。然而，阿巴拉契亞地區(qū)的增長(zhǎng)完全依賴于擬議中的Mountain Valley管道的進(jìn)展，這仍面臨著重大的法律阻礙。

與2021年相比，僅恩斯維爾區(qū)塊今年的日產(chǎn)量預(yù)計(jì)將增長(zhǎng)26億立方英尺，使該區(qū)塊的年產(chǎn)量超過(guò)14億立方英尺/天。預(yù)計(jì)該流域的總產(chǎn)量明年也將大幅增加，到2023年底達(dá)到172億立方英尺/天。在美國(guó)的其他地區(qū)，伍德福德盆地的天然氣產(chǎn)量也可能在2023年對(duì)總產(chǎn)量的增長(zhǎng)作出重大貢獻(xiàn)，日產(chǎn)量將增加10億立方英尺。

近期全球天然氣價(jià)格飆升推動(dòng)美國(guó)勘探和生產(chǎn)公司增加投資，以利用具有競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力的盈虧平衡成本。

在歐洲努力緩解對(duì)產(chǎn)能大國(guó)天然氣的依賴之際，歐洲天然氣供應(yīng)出現(xiàn)明顯短缺，這推動(dòng)歐洲大陸的天然氣價(jià)格不斷走高。盡管美國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)市場(chǎng)價(jià)格相對(duì)較高，但美國(guó)和歐洲的價(jià)格差異如此巨大，生產(chǎn)和運(yùn)輸美國(guó)天然氣，即使考慮到昂貴的液化過(guò)程，在經(jīng)濟(jì)上仍然具有優(yōu)勢(shì)。

在歐洲和美國(guó)，天然氣價(jià)格的衡量方式不同，但將歐洲價(jià)格換算成每百萬(wàn)英熱單位的美元標(biāo)準(zhǔn)可以進(jìn)行直接比較。自2020年夏季以來(lái)，美歐價(jià)差穩(wěn)步擴(kuò)大。當(dāng)時(shí)，不同尋常的市場(chǎng)基本面因素導(dǎo)致美國(guó)基準(zhǔn)亨利基準(zhǔn)指數(shù)（Henry Hub）和歐洲基準(zhǔn)荷蘭基準(zhǔn)指數(shù)（Dutch TTF）異常接近。地緣政治沖突和隨后的全球能源危機(jī)已經(jīng)加大了差距。截至7月15日，Henry Hub的價(jià)格為7美元/百萬(wàn)英熱單位，而TTF的價(jià)格為驚人的47美元/百萬(wàn)英熱單位，幾乎是美國(guó)價(jià)格的7倍。然而，液化天然氣產(chǎn)能的限制將限制美國(guó)向國(guó)際運(yùn)輸?shù)奶烊粴鈹?shù)量。

雷斯塔能源公司高級(jí)分析師Kristine Vassbotn表示，美國(guó)已經(jīng)是世界上最大的天然氣生產(chǎn)國(guó)，準(zhǔn)備進(jìn)一步提高產(chǎn)量以滿足全球需求，但向外銷(xiāo)售限制是一個(gè)嚴(yán)重的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。然而，隨著2024年之后預(yù)計(jì)將增加新的液化天然氣產(chǎn)能，美國(guó)在未來(lái)一段時(shí)間內(nèi)將在全球天然氣市場(chǎng)中發(fā)揮更大的作用。

郝芬 譯自 全球能源新聞網(wǎng)

原文如下:

US GAS PRODUCTION TO REACH RECORD HIGH BY THE END OF 2022 WITH MORE GROWTH TO COME

US natural gas production is forecast to hit an all-time high in the coming months, racing past 100 billion cubic feet per day (Bcfd), helping feed global demand as the world faces a severe supply shortage. 

Rystad Energy’s analysis shows that production growth from the major US gas-producing basins of the Haynesville and Appalachia, in addition to associated gas volumes from the Permian, will solidify the country’s position as the world’s largest gas producer, stretching its lead over the larger producer, and surpassing the official growth expectations of the EIA.

Within shale gas plays, the Marcellus, Utica and Haynesville are set to contribute the most. Growth in Appalachia, however, is entirely dependent on the progress of the proposed Mountain Valley Pipeline, which still faces significant legal hurdles. 

Production from the Haynesville alone is expected to grow by a staggering 2.6 Bcfd this year compared to 2021, pushing annual output from the play to more than 14 Bcfd. Total production from the basin is forecast to jump next year too, reaching 17.2 Bcfd by the end of 2023. Elsewhere in the US, gas production from the Woodford basin could also contribute major growth to total output in 2023, with a 1 Bcfd expansion not off the table.

Recent global gas price surges are driving increased investment by US exploration and production companies looking to capitalize on competitive breakeven costs. 

A well-documented European supply shortage amid efforts to ease reliance on Russian gas is pushing prices on the continent ever higher. Although relatively elevated for the domestic market, US and European price differences are so wide producing and shipping US gas across the Atlantic, even accounting for the pricey liquefaction process, is still economically advantageous.

Gas prices are measured differently in Europe and the US but converting European prices to the US-standard dollars per million British thermal units (MMBtu) allows a direct comparison. The US-Europe price spread has widened steadily since summer 2020, when unusual market fundamentals brought the Henry Hub – the US benchmark – and the Dutch TTF – the European marker – unusually close.The war and the ensuing global energy crisis has accelerated the disparity. As of July 15, the Henry Hub was $7 per MMBtu, whereas the TTF stood at a staggering $47 per MMBtu, almost seven times the US price. However, LNG capacity constraints will limit how much gas the US can ship internationally.

“Already the top gas producer in the world, the US stands ready to boost output further to meet the global demand, but takeaway constraints are a serious risk. However, with new LNG capacity expected to be added after 2024, the US is set to grow its role in global gas markets for some time to come,” says Kristine Vassbotn, Rystad Energy senior analyst.