據(jù)今日油價網(wǎng)4月20日報道，摩根大通預(yù)計，到2030年，全球能源需求將繼續(xù)增長，這將需要在包括石油和天然氣在內(nèi)的各種能源領(lǐng)域追加投資1.3萬億美元，以避免能源供應(yīng)短缺。

據(jù)路透社報道，摩根大通策略師Marko Kolanovic和chrisstyan Malek在該行首份年度能源展望中表示：“我們的主要發(fā)現(xiàn)是，根據(jù)目前的趨勢，到2030年，能源需求增長將超過供應(yīng)增長約20%，主要是受新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體及其發(fā)展和使其人民脫貧努力的推動。” 

根據(jù)這家美國投資銀行的預(yù)測，到20年代末，全球石油需求將增長10%，而天然氣需求預(yù)計將大增18%。

因此，摩根大通指出，能源投資應(yīng)該包括所有形式的能源，包括石油和天然氣、核能和可再生能源。

摩根大通分析師在展望中寫道：“在可擴(kuò)展、可靠、清潔和負(fù)擔(dān)得起的技術(shù)出現(xiàn)之前，世界將需要應(yīng)對現(xiàn)有所有能源——化石能源和非化石能源——以及它們各自的缺點(diǎn)。”

這家銀行的戰(zhàn)略家還指出，并非所有的燃料都是可互換的——例如，太陽能電池板在石化生產(chǎn)中不能取代原油。

包括國際能源署（IEA）在內(nèi)的一些分析人士和組織表示，如果要在2050年前實現(xiàn)凈零目標(biāo)，可再生能源每年需要的投資將遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超過目前全球的投資。

國際能源署執(zhí)行主任Fatih Birol去年年底表示，如果世界要實現(xiàn)《巴黎協(xié)定》的目標(biāo)，在低碳能源方面的投資需要增加兩倍。

季廷偉 摘譯自 今日油價網(wǎng)

原文如下：

JPMorgan: World Urgently Needs Extra $1.3 Trillion Energy Investment

Global energy demand will continue rising by 2030, which will necessitate an additional $1.3 trillion in investments in all forms of energy, including oil and gas, to avoid a shortage of energy supply, according to JP Morgan.

“Our main finding is that by 2030, energy demand growth will exceed supply growth by circa 20% based on current trends, primarily driven by emerging economies and their efforts to develop and lift their citizens out of poverty,” JP Morgan’s strategists Marko Kolanovic and Christyan Malek said in the bank’s first annual energy outlook, as carried by Reuters.

Global oil demand is set to grow by 10 percent by the end of this decade, while demand for natural gas is expected to jump by 18 percent, according to the U.S. investment bank.

Energy investment, therefore, should include all forms of energy, including oil and gas, nuclear power, and renewables, JP Morgan notes.

“Until scalable, reliable, clean and affordable technologies are available, the world will need to work with all of the current sources of energy - fossil and non-fossil - and their respective drawbacks,” JP Morgan analysts wrote in the outlook.

The bank’s strategists also note that not all fuels are interchangeable—for example, solar panels cannot replace crude oil in petrochemicals production. 

Moreover, renewable energy sources will need much more investment per year than the world is investing now if net-zero by 2050 targets are to be met, analysts and organizations, including the International Energy Agency (IEA), say.

Investments in low-carbon energy need to triple if the world is to meet its Paris Agreement targets, the IEA’s Executive Director Fatih Birol said at the end of last year.