據(jù)世界石油2月18日消息稱，盡管原油價(jià)格已逼近每桶100美元，但美國(guó)石油產(chǎn)量要到明年晚些時(shí)候才能達(dá)到疫情前的高點(diǎn)，因通貨膨脹和產(chǎn)量停滯阻礙了石油行業(yè)的復(fù)蘇。

這是行業(yè)咨詢公司ESAI分析師伊麗莎白·墨菲的說(shuō)法。雖然墨菲估計(jì)，美國(guó)今年的日產(chǎn)量將增加90萬(wàn)桶，但她指出，成本上升和鉆井問(wèn)題是阻礙經(jīng)濟(jì)進(jìn)一步增長(zhǎng)的因素。

新鉆井?dāng)?shù)量跟不上完井?dāng)?shù)量，而完井是石油開(kāi)始流動(dòng)之前的最后一步。墨菲在一次網(wǎng)絡(luò)研討會(huì)上表示，保持新鉆井的良好記錄對(duì)于維持和提高產(chǎn)量是必要的。

她說(shuō)，服務(wù)業(yè)的價(jià)格上漲也是一個(gè)問(wèn)題，這可能會(huì)抑制產(chǎn)量增長(zhǎng)。她指出，在世界上石油產(chǎn)量最多的二疊紀(jì)盆地，用于水力壓裂的砂的成本已經(jīng)增加了兩倍。她說(shuō)，其他可能減緩供應(yīng)復(fù)蘇的因素包括更多的監(jiān)管規(guī)定，如甲烷法規(guī)、專(zhuān)利費(fèi)上漲以及行業(yè)進(jìn)一步整合。

自去年12月初以來(lái)，原油價(jià)格已飆升40%，達(dá)到每桶90美元以上。隨著上周美國(guó)鉆井公司增加的鉆機(jī)數(shù)量達(dá)到四年來(lái)的最高水平，許多生產(chǎn)商都渴望利用油價(jià)上漲的機(jī)會(huì)。本周，美國(guó)政府報(bào)告稱，二疊紀(jì)盆地的石油供應(yīng)量連續(xù)三個(gè)月達(dá)到歷史最高水平。但即便如此，由于一些生產(chǎn)限制，全球原油供應(yīng)仍無(wú)法滿足強(qiáng)勁的需求。

朱佳妮 摘譯自 世界石油

原文如下：

U.S. oil production won't reach pre-Covid high until 2023, analyst says

Even as crude prices hurtle toward $100 a barrel, U.S. oil output won’t be able to reach its pre-pandemic high until later next year as inflation and production logjams present obstacles to the industry’s recovery.

That’s according to Elisabeth Murphy, an analyst at industry consultant ESAI. While Murphy estimates that the U.S. is set to add 900,000 barrels a day of supply this year, she pointed to rising costs and issues with drilling as factors that are holding back more growth. 

New drilling isn’t keeping up with number of well completions, the final step before oil begins flowing. Keeping a good log of newly drilled wells is necessary to maintain and grow production, Murphy said during a webinar. 

Service-sector price inflation is also an issue, and one that could restrain production growth, she said, noting that the cost of sand for fracking purposes has tripled in the Permian basin, the world’s most prolific oil patch. Other factors that could slow supply recovery include more regulations such as methane rules, rising royalty rates and further industry consolidation, she said. 

Crude prices have surged 40% since early December to more than $90 a barrel. Many producers have been eager to take advantage of the rally, with U.S. drillers adding the most rigs in four years last week. This week, the U.S. government reported that the Permian reached record volumes of oil supply for three consecutive months. But even with that expansion, global crude supplies aren’t keeping up with robust demand amid some production limitations.