據(jù)世界能源7月24日消息：油價(jià)從周一的大幅下滑中強(qiáng)勁反彈后，周五小幅走高，因?yàn)槭袌?chǎng)預(yù)期今年供應(yīng)仍將緊張。

　　由于擔(dān)心美國(guó)、英國(guó)、日本和其他地區(qū)新冠病毒Delta變種病例激增對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)和原油需求的影響，油價(jià)和其他風(fēng)險(xiǎn)較高的資產(chǎn)價(jià)格本周開(kāi)始下跌。

　　布倫特原油在周四上漲2.2%后，收盤上漲31美分，收于每桶74.10美元，漲幅0.4%。美國(guó)西德克薩斯中質(zhì)油(WTI)在周四上漲2.3%，收于72.07美元，上漲16美分，漲幅0.2%。

　　本周，布倫特原油在連續(xù)三周下跌后上漲0.7%，而WTI原油在連續(xù)兩周下跌后上漲0.4%。

　　兩個(gè)基準(zhǔn)指數(shù)周一均下跌約7%，但隨后收復(fù)了失地，投資者預(yù)計(jì)需求將保持強(qiáng)勁，市場(chǎng)將從石油庫(kù)存下降和疫苗接種率上升中獲得支撐。

　　德國(guó)商業(yè)銀行在一份報(bào)告中表示：“事實(shí)證明，對(duì)需求的擔(dān)憂被夸大了，這就是油價(jià)此后回升的原因。盡管石油供應(yīng)增加，但直到年底，石油市場(chǎng)仍將略微供應(yīng)不足。”

　　歐佩克與盟國(guó) (統(tǒng)稱為歐佩克+) 達(dá)成協(xié)議，從8月起增產(chǎn)40萬(wàn)桶/天，預(yù)計(jì)需求增長(zhǎng)將超過(guò)供應(yīng)增長(zhǎng)。

　　澳新銀行分析師在一份報(bào)告中表示，市場(chǎng)開(kāi)始感覺(jué)到歐佩克+的增產(chǎn)不足以保持市場(chǎng)平衡，美國(guó)和經(jīng)合組織國(guó)家的庫(kù)存將繼續(xù)下降。

　　美國(guó)原油庫(kù)存上周增加210萬(wàn)桶，但俄克拉荷馬州庫(kù)欣交貨點(diǎn)的WTI庫(kù)存跌至2020年1月以來(lái)的最低水平。

　　能源服務(wù)公司貝克休斯表示，本周美國(guó)石油鉆井平臺(tái)增加7個(gè)，至387個(gè)，為2020年4月以來(lái)的最高水平。但由于生產(chǎn)商傾向于緊縮支出，鉆井行業(yè)的復(fù)蘇一直較為溫和。

　　美國(guó)銀行在一份報(bào)告中表示：“我們?nèi)匀徽J(rèn)為，歐佩克+推動(dòng)原油和餾分油價(jià)格下跌是一個(gè)買入機(jī)會(huì)，布倫特原油明年將觸及每桶100美元，餾分油也將隨之上漲。”

　　馮娟 摘譯自 世界能源

　　原文如下：

　　Oil edges up on forecasts for tight supplies

　　Oil prices edged higher on Friday and for the week after a strong recovery from Monday's steep slide, underpinned by expectations that supply will remain tight through the year.

　　The price of oil and other riskier assets tumbled at the start of the week on concern over the impact on the economy and crude demand from surging cases of the COVID-19 Delta variant in the United States, Britain, Japan and elsewhere.

　　Brent crude ended the session up 31 cents, or 0.4%, at $74.10 a barrel after jumping 2.2% on Thursday. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude settled up 16 cents, or 0.2%, at $72.07, after gaining 2.3% on Thursday.

　　For the week, Brent gained 0.7% after declining for three consecutive weeks, while WTI rose 0.4% after falling for two weeks.

　　Both benchmarks slumped about 7% on Monday but pared those losses, with investors expecting demand to stay strong and the market to receive support from falling oil stockpiles and rising vaccination rates.

　　"The demand concerns proved to be exaggerated, which is why oil prices have since recovered. Despite the expansion in oil supply, the oil market will remain slightly undersupplied until the end of the year," Commerzbank said in a note.

　　Demand growth is expected to outpace supply after Sunday's deal between the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies, collectively known as OPEC+, to add back 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) each month from August.

　　ANZ Research analysts said in a report that the market was starting to sense the OPEC+ increase will not be enough to keep the market balanced and inventories in the United States and across OECD countries would continue to fall.

　　U.S. crude inventories rose by 2.1 million barrels last week, but stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma delivery point for WTI hit their lowest since January 2020.

　　U.S. oil rigs rose seven to 387 this week, their highest since April 2020, energy services firm Baker Hughes Co said. But the recovery in drilling has been modest as producers favor spending austerity.

　　"We still think the OPEC+ driven dip in crude and distillate prices is a buying opportunity and project Brent will hit $100 a barrel next year, with distillates tagging along for the ride," Bank of America said in a note.

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