據油價網7月13日消息：根據能源信息署(EIA)的數據，8月美國頁巖油產量將小幅增加4.2萬桶/天。

　　EIA在其最新的鉆井產能報告中預測，幾乎所有增加的產量都將來自二疊紀盆地，達到5.2萬桶/天。阿巴拉契亞盆地的產量也將增加2000桶/天。與此同時，除Haynesville外，其余頁巖區塊的產量將下降1.3萬桶/天。海恩斯維爾的產量本月仍將持平。

　　這一溫和的預測增長將推動美國8月份頁巖油總產量達到790萬桶/天，與大流行前美國頁巖盆地的產量仍有很大差距，因為頁巖鉆探商對油價的突然波動仍持謹慎態度。

　　然而，這種謹慎態度對一些頁巖生產商開了個壞玩笑。這些公司在油價開始回升后不久就對沖了2021年的產量，最終因為對沖太早而虧損。許多人沒有對沖，但那些進行對沖的人現在沒有動力提高產量，因為這意味著在他們過早的對沖中損失更多的錢。

　　據Rystad Energy稱，美國頁巖油產量恢復緩慢還有另一個純粹的技術原因。該能源咨詢公司表示，目前大多數美國頁巖生產商都在提高已鉆但尚未完工的油井產量。為了更有效地提高產量，他們需要鉆更多的新井。

　　Rystad頁巖研究主管Artem Abramov表示:“即使美國頁巖行業希望增產，從價格信號到重大產量影響所需的時間至少是9個月，包括作出投資決定所需的時間，從開鉆到壓裂結束所需的時間，再加上從壓裂結束到產量峰值的最后階段。”

　　馮娟 摘譯自 油價網

　　原文如下：

　　Permian To Drive U.S. Shale Production Increase In August

　　U.S. shale oil production will increase by a modest 42,000 bpd in August, according to the Energy Information Administration.

　　In its latest Drilling Productivity Report, the EIA forecast that almost all of this production increase will come from the Permian, at 52,000 bpd. Production in the Appalachia Basin will also increase, by 2,000 bpd. At the same time, the EIA said, production across the rest of the shale plays, excluding Haynesville, will decline by a combined 13,000 bpd. Production at Haynesville will remain flat on the month.

　　This modest forecast increase would push total U.S. shale oil output to 7.9 million bpd in August, still a far cry from what the U.S. shale basins were producing before the pandemic as shale drillers remain cautious of sudden price swings in the price of oil.

　　This cautiousness played a bad joke on some shale producers, however. These companies hedged their 2021 production soon after oil prices began recovering, eventually losing money because they hedged too early. Many did not hedge, but those who did now have less motivation to boost production as this would effectively mean losing more money on their premature hedges.

　　According to Rystad Energy, there is also another purely technical reason why U.S. shale oil production is slow to come back. Currently, the energy consultancy said, most U.S. shale producers are boosting production from drilled but uncompleted wells. For a more meaningful ramp-up of production, they would need to drill more new wells.

　　“Even if the US shale industry wanted to produce more, the time required from a price signal to a significant production impact is at least nine months, including the time it takes to make an investment decision, the months needed from spud to frac end, plus the last stage from frac end to peak production,” said Artem Abramov, Rystad’s head of shale research.

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