據(jù)經(jīng)濟時報7月6日消息：國際能源署(IEA)預(yù)測，2021年印度天然氣消費量將增長4.5%，而全球需求將反彈3.6%。
根據(jù)IEA最新報告，預(yù)計到2024年，全球天然氣需求將比2019年疫情前水平增長7%。由于北半球異常暖冬和新冠肺炎大流行的影響，2020年全球需求下降了1.9%。
IEA能源市場與安全主管Keisuke Sadamori說：“天然氣需求的反彈表明，全球經(jīng)濟正在疫情的沖擊中復(fù)蘇，天然氣正繼續(xù)取代排放強度更高的燃料。”2020年至2024年間，近一半的天然氣需求增長來自亞太地區(qū)。
盡管第一季度印度天然氣需求同比下降5%，但預(yù)計2021年印度天然氣需求仍將增長4.5%。IEA表示:“正在進行的第二波液化天然氣價格高企對經(jīng)濟的影響，給我們的預(yù)測帶來了下行風(fēng)險?！?/p>
IEA稱，今年第一季度液化天然氣消費出現(xiàn)萎縮，因為東北亞冬季能源危機后現(xiàn)貨價格高企抑制了需求，尤其是在煉油和石化行業(yè)，據(jù)報道，一些運營商已從進口液化天然氣轉(zhuǎn)向液體燃料。
與新冠肺炎相關(guān)的封鎖和液化天然氣價格高企也影響了第二季度的需求。
在亞洲，第二季度液化天然氣現(xiàn)貨價格同比增長逾四倍，平均達到9.8美元/百萬英熱，創(chuàng)下2014年以來第二季度的最高水平。印度和韓國的強勁購買興趣，加上液化廠計劃內(nèi)的停產(chǎn)，為液化天然氣現(xiàn)貨價格提供了上行支撐。
IEA的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，今年下半年，亞洲現(xiàn)貨價格的平均水平將接近13美元/百萬英熱，從而導(dǎo)致全年平均價格超過11美元/百萬英熱，這是自2014年以來的最高水平。
馮娟 摘譯自 經(jīng)濟時報
原文如下：
India’s natural gas consumption to rise 4.5% in 2021: IEA
India’s natural gas consumption will rise 4.5% while global demand will rebound by 3.6% in 2021, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has forecast.
By 2024, the global gas demand is forecast to be up 7% from 2019’s pre-Covid levels, according to the IEA’s latest report. Global demand dropped by 1.9% in 2020 due to an exceptionally mild winter in the northern hemisphere and the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic.
“The rebound in gas demand shows that the global economy is recovering from the shock of the pandemic and that gas is continuing to replace more emission-intensive fuels,” said Keisuke Sadamori, the IEA’s director of energy markets and security. Almost half of the increase in gas demand between 2020 and 2024 comes from the Asia Pacific region.
India’s gas demand is expected to expand by 4.5% in 2021 despite a 5% year-on-year contraction in the first quarter. “The economic fallout from the ongoing second wave and high LNG prices present downside risks to our forecast,” the IEA said.
Consumption contracted in the first quarter “as high spot LNG prices in the aftermath of the northeast Asian winter energy crisis tempered demand, especially in the refining and petrochemical sectors, where some operators reportedly switched from imported LNG to liquid fuels,” according to the IEA.
Covid-linked lockdowns and high LNG prices hurt demand also in the second quarter.
In Asia, LNG spot prices more than quadrupled year-on-year in Q2 to reach an average of $9.8/MBtu—their highest Q2 average since 2014. “Strong buying interest from India and Korea, together with a combination of planned and unplanned outages in liquefaction plants, provided upward support to LNG spot prices,” said the IEA.
Asian spot prices are set to average close to $13/MBtu through the second half of the year, resulting in an overall annual average of over $11/MBtu—the highest level since 2014, according to the IEA.
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