歐佩克消息人士本周向《能源情報(bào)》(Energy Intelligence)表示，歐佩克將再次提醒那些未能遵守歐佩克+石油減產(chǎn)協(xié)議的國(guó) 家盡快提交減產(chǎn)計(jì)劃，說明如何將近幾個(gè)月超出配額的產(chǎn)量減至協(xié)議要求的數(shù)額。

　　自去年5月1日最新協(xié)議生效以來，歐佩克+聯(lián)盟中有10個(gè)產(chǎn)油國(guó)超額生產(chǎn)。該消息人士告訴《能源情報(bào)》，在這10個(gè)產(chǎn)油國(guó)中，多達(dá)7個(gè)尚未向歐佩克秘書處提交計(jì)劃，說明他們計(jì)劃如何補(bǔ)償違反減產(chǎn)的情況。

　　4月底歐佩克+部長(zhǎng)級(jí)會(huì)議指出，所有國(guó)家“承諾應(yīng)實(shí)現(xiàn)完全一致，并在延長(zhǎng)的補(bǔ)償期內(nèi)彌補(bǔ)之前減產(chǎn)的不足，這一補(bǔ)償期將持續(xù)到2021年9月底。”并強(qiáng)調(diào)了立即加速市場(chǎng)再平衡努力的重要性。

　　然而，歐佩克表示，一些國(guó)家“尚未達(dá)到完全遵守協(xié)議的最低要求，以彌補(bǔ)產(chǎn)量過剩。”

　　石油輸出國(guó)組織的消息人士告訴《能源情報(bào)》，在這些怠于減產(chǎn)的國(guó)家中，只有伊拉克、赤道幾內(nèi)亞和加蓬已經(jīng)提交了補(bǔ)償計(jì)劃，但俄羅斯、剛果、阿塞拜疆、文萊、 哈薩克斯坦、蘇丹和南蘇丹都沒有提交。

　　據(jù)《能源情報(bào)》估計(jì)，在歐佩克+減產(chǎn)協(xié)議實(shí)施后的一年中，歐佩克成員國(guó)的產(chǎn)量超過了12萬桶/天，而非歐佩克成員國(guó)的產(chǎn)量?jī)H略高于其總配額的18萬桶/天。據(jù)估計(jì)，在2020年5月1日至2021年4月30日期間，俄羅斯是歐佩克+產(chǎn)油國(guó)中產(chǎn)量過剩最多的，在截至4月底的一年里，俄羅斯的產(chǎn)量平均超過其配額8萬桶/天。

　　根據(jù)《能源情報(bào)》的資料，俄羅斯認(rèn)為符合95%-96%的減產(chǎn)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)就已足夠平衡市場(chǎng)。歐佩克+的另一個(gè)關(guān)鍵成員國(guó)沙特阿拉伯已經(jīng)開始認(rèn)識(shí)到，俄羅斯堅(jiān)決支持并參與減產(chǎn)協(xié)議的代價(jià)，就是享有不完全遵守減產(chǎn)協(xié)議的豁免權(quán)。

　　宋鐵毅 編譯自 今日油價(jià)

　　OPEC Will Force Overproducing Members To Comply And Compensate

　　OPEC has had to remind once again the laggards in compliance in the OPEC+ oil production deal to submit plans on how they will compensate for pumping above their respective quotas in recent months, sources at OPEC told Energy Intelligence this week.

　　There are 10 producers in the OPEC+ alliance who have overproduced beyond their allowances since the latest pact became effective on May 1 last year. Of those 10 producers, as many as seven have yet to submit plans to the OPEC Secretariat on how they plan to compensate for breaching their quotas, the sources told Energy Intelligence.

　　At the latest ministerial meeting of OPEC+, the ministers noted at the end of April that all countries “pledged to achieve full conformity and make up for previous adjustment shortfalls during the extended compensation period, which runs through the end of September 2021, and stressed the importance of accelerating the market rebalancing efforts without delay.”

　　The ministers, however, noted that some countries “have yet to achieve the minimum expectation of 100% conformity and to compensate for overproduced volumes,” OPEC said.

　　Among those laggards, Iraq, Equatorial Guinea, and Gabon have submitted plans for compensation schedules, but Russia, Congo, Azerbaijan, Brunei, Kazakhstan, Sudan, and South Sudan have not, OPEC sources told Energy Intelligence.

　　As per estimates by Energy Intelligence, in the year after the OPEC+ pact was implemented, OPEC members overproduced by 120,000 barrels per day (bpd), while non-OPEC members produced just over 180,000 bpd over their combined quotas. Russia is estimated to be the OPEC+ producer that has overproduced the largest volume between May 1, 2020, and April 30, 2021, pumping at 80,000 bpd above its quota on average for the year to end-April.

　　According to Energy Intelligence’s sources, Russia thinks that complying at around 95-96 percent is good enough. The other key member of the OPEC+ alliance, Saudi Arabia, has started to accept that the lack of full Russian compliance could be the price to pay for keeping Moscow firmly supporting and participating in the production cut deal.