???? 據(jù)今日油價(jià)網(wǎng)站4月12日消息 EIA可能預(yù)測(cè)二疊紀(jì)盆地的石油產(chǎn)量將很快反彈，但總體而言，目前美國(guó)的石油產(chǎn)量仍比2020年1月的水平低200萬(wàn)桶/日。
????EIA的月度鉆井產(chǎn)能報(bào)告預(yù)測(cè)，美國(guó)產(chǎn)量最大的盆地二疊紀(jì)的產(chǎn)量將在5月份恢復(fù)到446.6萬(wàn)桶/日。
????而在2020年5月，這一數(shù)字為391.8萬(wàn)桶/日，但這幾乎是疫情前的水平。2020年1月，二疊紀(jì)盆地的平均石油產(chǎn)量為479.3萬(wàn)桶/日，這意味著二疊紀(jì)盆地的石油產(chǎn)量下降了32.7萬(wàn)桶/日，比1月份的水平下降了7%。
????復(fù)蘇前景良好，至少對(duì)二疊紀(jì)而言。但總體而言，美國(guó)石油產(chǎn)量仍為1090萬(wàn)桶/日，去年1月為1290萬(wàn)桶/日，低了15.5%。
????其他盆地的表現(xiàn)也不太好，阿納達(dá)科盆地仍低于1月水平35%，尼奧布拉拉盆地低于34%，阿巴拉契亞盆地低于15%，巴克肯盆地低于23%，第二大頁(yè)巖區(qū)塊伊格爾福特低于1月水平26%。
????美國(guó)是否會(huì)恢復(fù)到這樣的水平還值得商榷。美國(guó)前能源部長(zhǎng)Dan Brouillette去年10月表示，他不太確定美國(guó)石油產(chǎn)量能否迅速反彈至1300萬(wàn)桶/日，預(yù)計(jì)2021年石油產(chǎn)量可能徘徊在1100萬(wàn)桶/日左右。
????西方石油公司首席執(zhí)行官Vicki Hollub在最近的一次新聞發(fā)布會(huì)上表示，美國(guó)油氣行業(yè)很難恢復(fù)到1300萬(wàn)桶/日的水平。Vicki Hollub表示：“我認(rèn)為這不會(huì)發(fā)生，將需要太多的投資。”
????王磊 摘譯自 今日油價(jià)
????原文如下：
????U.S. Oil Production Still 2 Million Bpd Under Pre-Pandemic Levels
????The EIA might be forecasting that the Permian Basin’s oil production will be rebounding soon, but overall, today’s U.S. oil production is still 2 million barrels per day below the levels seen in January 2020.
????The EIA’s Monthly Drilling Productivity Report is forecasting that for the nation’s most prolific basin, the Permian, production will return to 4.466 million barrels per day in May.
????That compares to 3.918 million bpd in May 2020—but that was hardly prior to the pandemic. In January 2020, the Permian basin’s average oil production was 4.793 million bpd. This means that oil production in the Permian Basin is down 327,000 bpd, or 7% under January levels.
????That’s a fairly good recovery, at least for the Permian. But overall, U.S. oil production is still sitting at 10.9 million bpd—compared to 12.9 million bpd in January of last year. This is 15.5% under January levels.
????Other basins aren’t doing quite as well, with the Anadarko Basin still 35% under January levels, the Niobrara Basin 34% under, the Appalachia Basin 15% under, the Bakken 23% under, and the Eagle Ford—the second-largest shale play, at 26% under January levels.
????And it’s debatable whether the United States will ever return to those levels. Former U.S. Energy Secretary Dan Brouillette said last October that he wasn’t so sure U.S. production would rebound to 13 million bpd quickly, anticipating that oil production might hover around 11 million bpd for 2021. And so far, he’s been correct.
????Occidental Petroleum’s CEO Vicki Hollub said at a recent press conference that it would be difficult for the U.S. oil and gas industry to get back up to that 13 million bpd. “I don’t think that’s going to happen. Too much investment would be required.”
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