???? 據(jù)油價(jià)網(wǎng)2021年3月25日倫敦報(bào)道，美國石油鉆井工人不再坐在戰(zhàn)壕里，等待大流行病的風(fēng)暴過去。達(dá)拉斯聯(lián)邦儲(chǔ)備銀行第一季度能源調(diào)查結(jié)果顯示，新冠肺炎確證病例數(shù)再次進(jìn)入增長模式。達(dá)拉斯聯(lián)邦儲(chǔ)備銀行能源調(diào)查的受訪者表示，由于油價(jià)反彈，石油領(lǐng)域的活動(dòng)正在擴(kuò)大。而且業(yè)務(wù)活動(dòng)指數(shù)正在強(qiáng)勁擴(kuò)大：從去年第四季度的僅為18.5，到今年第一季度飆升至53.6。

????這個(gè)數(shù)據(jù)支持了來自其他機(jī)構(gòu)的證據(jù)：在用鉆機(jī)數(shù)量正在穩(wěn)步上升。石油產(chǎn)量也是如此：根據(jù)美國能源信息署(EIA)發(fā)布的最新一期每周報(bào)告，在3月26日結(jié)束的一周里，美國石油產(chǎn)量平均為1100萬桶/天。這仍然比去年同期的平均水平低200萬桶/天，但高于前一周的平均水平和截至3月19日的四周平均水平。這些跡象似乎表明了歐佩克最擔(dān)憂的事情：美國頁巖油生產(chǎn)正在回歸。

????達(dá)拉斯聯(lián)邦儲(chǔ)備銀行在調(diào)查報(bào)告中稱，資本支出正在回升，該指數(shù)從去年第四季度的12.5升至31。此外，油氣行業(yè)對未來也很樂觀，計(jì)劃明年進(jìn)一步增加支出。

????達(dá)拉斯聯(lián)邦儲(chǔ)備銀行表示，還有一點(diǎn)壞消息，成本也在上升。另一方面，由于鉆井活動(dòng)的恢復(fù)，工作正在重返石油行業(yè)，主要是油田服務(wù)行業(yè)。第一季度，油田服務(wù)行業(yè)的就業(yè)指數(shù)為23.5，而勘探和生產(chǎn)行業(yè)的就業(yè)指數(shù)僅為1。

????回到成本問題上：受訪者表示，在二疊紀(jì)盆地(特拉華州盆地除外)鉆一口新井將在53美元/桶的油價(jià)下實(shí)現(xiàn)收支平衡。而去年這個(gè)時(shí)候是49美元。調(diào)查顯示，二疊紀(jì)地區(qū)一口井的盈虧平衡價(jià)格為50美元，比去年高出1美元。

????然而，在特拉華州盆地和二疊紀(jì)遠(yuǎn)景區(qū)的米德蘭部分以及鷹福特遠(yuǎn)景區(qū)鉆一口新井的盈利成本較低，分別為49美元、46美元和46美元。現(xiàn)有井的盈利水平要低得多。

????因此，美國的鉆井公司重新開始鉆探，西德克薩斯中質(zhì)原油的價(jià)格明顯高于盈虧平衡點(diǎn)，即使是在頁巖開采成本最高的地區(qū)。

????歐佩克會(huì)怎么做?

????一位業(yè)內(nèi)高管表示，“雖然油價(jià)上漲一直是一個(gè)令人高興的消息，但歐佩克+是一把達(dá)摩克利斯之劍：如果美國運(yùn)營商提高資本支出，歐佩克+將打開其閘門，讓原油大量涌入市場。“目前緊張局勢有所緩和。”

????在他們的價(jià)格預(yù)測中，業(yè)內(nèi)人士對西德克薩斯中質(zhì)原油的平均價(jià)格預(yù)測為每桶61.13美元。而上個(gè)季度的平均價(jià)格為49.77美元。對油價(jià)的預(yù)測區(qū)間也很有說服力:從每桶45美元的低位到每桶85美元的高位，預(yù)測區(qū)間各不相同，反映出對油價(jià)樂觀情緒的回歸。去年全球石油行業(yè)是受新冠肺炎疫情打擊最嚴(yán)重的行業(yè)之一。

????這種樂觀情緒在一定程度上是由于人們預(yù)期美國政府的新能源政策將導(dǎo)致石油供應(yīng)趨緊，而石油供應(yīng)趨緊將自動(dòng)推高油價(jià)。

????李峻 編譯自 油價(jià)網(wǎng)

????原文如下：

????OPEC’s Biggest Fear Is Becoming A Reality

????U.S. oil drillers are no longer sitting in the trenches, waiting for the pandemic storm to pass. They are once again in growth mode, according to the first-quarter energy survey by the Dallas Federal Reserve. As oil prices rebound, activity in the oil patch is expanding, respondents to the Dallas Fed Energy Survey said. And it is expanding strongly: from a reading of just 18.5 for the fourth quarter of 2020, the business activity index of the survey soared as high as 53.6 over the first quarter of this year.

????The data supports evidence from other agencies: the number of active drilling rigs is steadily rising. So is production: according to the latest weekly report by the Energy Information Administration, oil production last week averaged 11 million bpd. That’s still 2 million bpd below the average for this time last year, but above the average for a week earlier and the four-week average for the period ending on March 19. The signs seem to point to what OPEC feared the most: U.S. shale is returning.

????Capital spending is returning, the Dallas Fed reported in its survey. From an index of 12.5 for the fourth quarter of 2020, it has now gone up to 31. What’s more, the industry is upbeat about the future, too, planning to boost spending further next year.

????In a bit of bad news, costs are also on the rise, the Dallas Fed said. On the flip side, jobs are returning to the oil patch, mostly in oilfield services, thanks to renewed drilling activity. The index for OFS jobs stood at 23.5 in the first quarter, although for exploration and production companies, it stood at just 1.

????Back to costs: respondents in the survey said drilling a new well in the Permian (except the Delaware Basin) would breakeven at $53/barrel. This compares with $49 this time last year. The breakeven price for a well in the Permian, according to the survey, stood at $50, which was $1 higher than last year.

????Yet the costs of profitably drilling a new well were lower in the Delaware Basin and the Midland part of the Permian play, as well as in the Eagle Ford play, at $49, $46, and $46, respectively. The profitability levels for existing wells were much lower.

????So, U.S. drillers are back to drilling, with West Texas Intermediate comfortably higher than breakeven prices, even in the costliest parts of the shale patch. What would OPEC do?

????“While the price increases have been welcome news, OPEC+ is a sword of Damocles: if U.S. operators raise capital expenditures, OPEC+ will open its taps and flood the market,” one industry executive said. “There is a tense detente currently.”

????This tense détente will likely continue as OPEC cannot really afford to open its taps right now—not when oil prices are still lower than what Saudi Arabia needs to balance its budget. If the respondents in the Dallas Fed survey are right, they will continue to be lower for a while longer.

????In their price forecasts, industry insiders gave an average price projection for West Texas Intermediate of $61.13 per barrel. This compared with an average of $49.77 last quarter. The range of price forecasts was telling, too: projections varied from a low of $45 per barrel to a high of $85 per barrel, reflecting the return of price optimism in one of the industries that suffered the worst blow from the pandemic.

????The optimism is in part fuelled by expectations that Biden administration policies will lead to tighter oil supply, which will automatically push prices higher