???? 據(jù)1月29日BBC報(bào)道，柬埔寨首相洪森(Hun Sen)表示，從2021年起，石油生產(chǎn)將是柬埔寨經(jīng)濟(jì)的福音，該部門的收入將用于改善教育和健康系統(tǒng)。

????柬埔寨很可能擁有大量的石油工業(yè)的國(guó)家，它們的石油產(chǎn)業(yè)為政府收入做出了關(guān)鍵貢獻(xiàn)。

????根據(jù)世界銀行(World Bank)的數(shù)據(jù)，過(guò)去20年柬埔寨經(jīng)濟(jì)一直在持續(xù)增長(zhǎng)，平均每年增長(zhǎng)7.7%。但在經(jīng)歷了20年的強(qiáng)勁增長(zhǎng)后，由于新冠肺炎疫情，經(jīng)濟(jì)急劇下滑。在這個(gè)困難時(shí)期，這個(gè)國(guó)家經(jīng)濟(jì)可能需要提振。

????2020年柬埔寨的經(jīng)濟(jì)萎縮了約2%，占經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)70%和就業(yè)39%的建筑業(yè)、旅游業(yè)和商品出口受到的沖擊尤其嚴(yán)重。

????一些分析人士認(rèn)為，柬埔寨的石油產(chǎn)業(yè)可能規(guī)模仍太小，無(wú)法帶動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇。

????2017年，該國(guó)與新加坡上市公司KrisEnergy達(dá)成協(xié)議，開發(fā)高棉盆地3083平方公里的區(qū)塊。KrisEnergy估計(jì)，第一階段的開發(fā)將產(chǎn)生約7500桶/天的石油。不過(guò)，該公司目前還不清楚是否有可能到柬埔寨油田進(jìn)行進(jìn)一步的開發(fā)。

????KrisEnergy發(fā)言人Tanya Pang表示:“我們需要研究至少6個(gè)月的生產(chǎn)數(shù)據(jù)，然后才能根據(jù)油藏產(chǎn)能決定如何進(jìn)行下一步。”

????即使石油行業(yè)確實(shí)大幅擴(kuò)張，柬埔寨仍是一個(gè)石油小國(guó)。根據(jù)美國(guó)能源信息署(US Energy Information Administration)的數(shù)據(jù)，最大的產(chǎn)油國(guó)，包括美國(guó)、沙特阿拉伯和俄羅斯的日產(chǎn)量均超過(guò)1000萬(wàn)桶。甚至鄰國(guó)泰國(guó)的石油日產(chǎn)量也超過(guò)了50萬(wàn)桶原油。

????總部位于金邊的企業(yè)咨詢公司Mekong Partners的斯蒂芬·希金斯（Stephen Higgins）表示：“當(dāng)然，產(chǎn)量可能會(huì)較多。但即使KrisEnergy在柬埔寨的油田的產(chǎn)量翻倍，也不會(huì)對(duì)柬埔寨經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)生轉(zhuǎn)型的作用。”

????初步估計(jì)，該油田可能非常重要。雪佛龍將其股份出售給了KrisEnergy，該公司的一位管理人員表示，該油田的儲(chǔ)量可能高達(dá)7億桶。后來(lái)的估計(jì)顯示，該油田的產(chǎn)量要低得多，約為3000萬(wàn)桶。KrisEnergy認(rèn)為，可采石油儲(chǔ)量不到1000萬(wàn)桶。

????柬埔寨從該項(xiàng)目中獲得的收入有望小幅增長(zhǎng)。除去特許權(quán)使用費(fèi)和稅收，政府將從該項(xiàng)目中可以賺取約5億美元。與鄰國(guó)的收入相比，這個(gè)數(shù)字很小。馬來(lái)西亞國(guó)家石油公司(Petronas)通常提供大約五分之一的政府收入。東帝汶用180億美元石油基金的利息，提供了約88%的政府收入。

????王佳晶 摘譯自 BBC

????原文如下：

????Can striking oil turn Cambodia's economy around?

????In a Facebook post, Cambodia’s Prime Minister Hun Sen described the country’s first few drops of oil as “a blessing for Cambodia” and “an important first step”.

????The project, which started pumping oil at the end of December, had been 15 years in the making and had suffered several false starts.

????Hun Sen said oil production would be a boon for Cambodia’s economy from 2021 onwards and that revenues from the sector would be used to improve education and health.

????Cambodia might well look with envy at some of its neighbours, with substantial oil industries that make a key contribution to government revenues.

????But will its nascent oil sector be able to make a real difference to Cambodia’s economic future?

????Hard times The country could use a boost. It suffered a sharp economic downturn due to the Covid-19 pandemic, after two decades of strong growth.

????Although Cambodia is one of Southeast Asia’s poorest countries, it has seen consistent growth over the last two decades, averaging 7.7% a year according to the World Bank.

????Clothing makers give stark virus warning

????How the Donut King went from rags to riches - twice

????Australia and East Timor sign border deal But Cambodia’s economy shrank by about 2% last year.

????Construction, tourism and merchandise exports, which accounted for 70% of growth and 39% of employment, were particularly badly hit.

????Small industry

????Some analysts believe the oil sector will likely remain too small to lead an economic recovery in Cambodia.

????The country struck a deal with Singapore-listed KrisEnergy in 2017 to develop 3,083 square kilometres of the Khmer basin. KrisEnergy estimates that the first phase of development will generate around 7,500 barrels a day.

????The company doesn’t know yet if the project is likely to extend to further development of oil fields in Cambodia.

????“We will need to study production data for at least six months before deciding how to proceed with further development phases depending on reservoir productivity,” said Tanya Pang, KrisEnergy’s spokeswoman.

????Even if the sector does expand significantly, Cambodia remains an oil minnow. The biggest producers - the US, Saudi Arabia and Russia - all produce more than ten million barrels a day, according to the US Energy Information Administration.

????Even neighbouring Thailand pumps more than half a million barrels.

????“Absolutely, there may be more. But even if you were to double it, it’s still not going to be transformational to the Cambodian economy,” said Stephen Higgins, from the Phnom Penh-based corporate advisory firm Mekong Partners.

????Early estimates suggested that the oil field could be very significant. An official at Chevron, which sold its stake to KrisEnergy, suggested that the site could have up to 700 million barrels.

????Later estimates suggested the field was far more modest, with around 30 million barrels. KrisEnergy has put the amount of recoverable oil at less than 10 million barrels.

????Resources curse

????Cambodia is likely to see a modest bump to its revenues from the project. Between royalties and taxes, the government will make around $500m from the project.

????That number is small compared to the revenues its neighbours collect. Malaysia’s state oil company Petronas typically supplies about a fifth of government revenues. Tiny East Timor uses the interest from an $18bn petroleum fund to provide around 88% of government revenues.