據管道&天然氣雜志網7月17日報道，根據伍德麥肯茲(Wood Mackenzie)的一份新報告顯示，在政府對運輸部門的新激勵措施的推動下，北美可再生天然氣(RNG，也稱為生物甲烷)市場有望大幅擴大，到2050年可能增長10倍，達到40億立方英尺/天。

僅在2022年，市場就經歷了顯著增長，新增產能為6000萬立方英尺/天，顯示了RNG日益突出的地位。

根據“北美可再生天然氣市場狀況”報告，RNG項目的數量在過去五年中翻了一番，2022年宣布了66個未來項目。總體而言，北美市場規模為3.85億立方英尺/天，其中得克薩斯州（6200萬立方英尺/天）、加利福尼亞州（3300萬立方英尺/天）和賓夕法尼亞州（3300萬立方英尺/天）處于領先地位。

最近旨在降低溫室氣體排放的法令和激勵措施刺激了這一活動，其中最引人注目的是《通貨膨脹削減法案》中針對可再生天然氣開發的投資稅收抵免(ITC)和美國環保署可再生燃料標準計劃中的低碳燃料計劃。

伍德麥肯茲的高級研究分析師Natalia Patterson表示，可再生天然氣越來越受歡迎，因為它的碳強度比天然氣項目低五倍，當用作運輸燃料時，有助于大大減少排放。據估計，超過一半的RNG產品被用作天然氣汽車的燃料。

垃圾填埋場通過甲烷排放的原料占了最大的一部分，但動物糞便項目正在增加，其次是食物垃圾和廢水處理項目。

盡管最近的增長，RNG市場目前只占北美天然氣市場的0.5%。然而，隨著政策的支持和技術的不斷發展，伍德麥肯茲預計到2050年，它的市場份額將增長到3%，達到每天40億立方英尺。

他說，新的政策框架有機會推動該行業的更多活動，但我們也需要看到自愿的努力，特別是來自工業部門，因為越來越多的公司致力于低碳倡議。工業部門的增長將有可能使運輸部門對傳統可再生天然氣的需求相形見絀。

郝芬 譯自 管道&天然氣雜志網

原文如下:

Mackenzie: North American RNG Market Could Reach 4 Bcf/d by 2050

The North American renewable natural gas (RNG) market is poised for significant expansion, potentially growing tenfold to reach 4 Bcf/d by 2050, driven by new government incentives for the transportation sector, according to a new report from Wood Mackenzie.

In 2022 alone, the market experienced remarkable growth, with the addition of 60 MMcf/d of new production capacity, showcasing the increasing prominence of RNG, also known as biomethane.

According to the report “North American renewable natural gas state of the market” the number of RNG projects has doubled in the last five years and 66 future projects were announced in 2022. In total, the North American market size sits at 385 MMcf/d, with states such as Texas (62 MMcf/d), California (33 MMcf/d), Pennsylvania (33 MMcf/d), leading the way.

Activity has been spurred by recent mandates and incentives aimed at lowering greenhouse gas emissions, most notably through investment tax credits (ITC) in the Inflation Reduction Act for RNG development and low-carbon fuel programs in the EPA’s Renewable Fuel Standard program.

“RNG has become more popular as it can have five times lower carbon intensity than natural gas projects and helps reduce emissions considerably when used for transportation fuel,” said Natalia Patterson, senior research analyst with Wood Mackenzie. “More than half of RNG production is estimated to be consumed as fuel for natural gas vehicles.” 

Landfills make up the largest portion of the capacity by feedstock through methane emissions, but animal waste projects are on the rise, followed by food waste and wastewater treatment projects.

Despite the recent growth, the RNG market currently only makes up 0.5% of the North American natural gas market. Yet with continued policy support and technology development, Wood Mackenzie projects it will growth to 3% of the market by 2050, for a total of 4 billion cubic feet per day.

“There are opportunities for new policy framework to drive more activity in the sector, but we will also need to see voluntary efforts as well, particularly from the industrial sector as more firms commit to low carbon initiatives,” said Patterson. “The growth in the industrial sector would have the potential to dwarf traditional RNG demand in the transportation sector.”