據(jù)4月15日今日石油網(wǎng)站消息，隨著EIA修正了對今年和明年的油價(jià)預(yù)測，油價(jià)已飆升至每桶83美元。 

在《短期能源展望》（STEO）中，EIA預(yù)計(jì)布倫特原油今年的平均價(jià)格為每桶85.01美元，比之前的預(yù)期高出2.5%；預(yù)計(jì)2024年的平均價(jià)格為每桶81.21美元，比預(yù)期高出5%。同時，EIA對于西得克薩斯中質(zhì)油(WTI)的預(yù)測價(jià)格同之前相比也提高了相似的幅度。

EIA表示，更高的價(jià)格預(yù)測反映出2023年全球石油產(chǎn)量將減少，而全球石油消費(fèi)需求保持相對不變。

EIA稱：“盡管我們的預(yù)估價(jià)格較高，但最近銀行業(yè)的問題增加了經(jīng)濟(jì)和石油需求增長低于我們預(yù)期的可能性，這有可能導(dǎo)致油價(jià)下跌。”

EIA在預(yù)測中考慮到了歐佩克每日減產(chǎn)120萬桶的影響。該消息公布后，原油價(jià)格大幅上漲。

原油價(jià)格已經(jīng)從一年前20%的漲幅高點(diǎn)回落，這是地緣政治沖突的直接結(jié)果。歐佩克減產(chǎn)則開始推動油價(jià)回升，在過去一個月內(nèi)上漲了約20%。

現(xiàn)在的原油價(jià)格與2023年年初的價(jià)格水平大致相同。

何勝男 編譯自 今日石油網(wǎng)站

原文如下： 

2023 oil price forecast hiked to $85/b by US Energy Body as OPEC cut remains in play  

Oil prices shot up to US$83 per barrel as the United States (US) Energy Information Administration (EIA) revised its forecast for this year and the next.  

In its Short Term Energy Outlook, the EIA expects Brent to average at US$85.01 a barrel this year, 2.5% higher than the previous outlook. Brent prices in 2024 are revised to US$81.21 per barrel – 5% higher than before. With West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude, expectations were raised by a similar amount.  

The EIA said the higher price forecast reflects one for less global production in 2023 and a relatively unchanged outlook for global oil consumption.  

“Despite our higher price forecast, recent issues in the banking sector raise the potential that economic and oil demand growth will be lower than our forecast, which has the potential to result in lower oil prices,” the EIA outlined.  

The Administration factored in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) 1.2 million barrels of crude a day production cut in its forecast. Crude prices jumped after the announcement.  

Prices have retreated from a 20% spike a year ago, a direct result of the war. The OPEC cut started pushing them back up, and they have gained about 20% in the past month.  

Now prices are around the same level where they started the year in 2023.