據(jù)鉆機(jī)地帶3月20日?qǐng)?bào)道，對(duì)石油前景最樂(lè)觀的銀行之一高盛集團(tuán)(Goldman Sachs Group Inc.)小幅下調(diào)了對(duì)石油的預(yù)測(cè)，原因是對(duì)銀行業(yè)和經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退可能性的擔(dān)憂超過(guò)了亞洲需求激增的影響。

該行分析師目前預(yù)計(jì)，布倫特原油在未來(lái)12個(gè)月將達(dá)到每桶94美元，2024年下半年將達(dá)到每桶97美元，此前為每桶100美元。

該行在3月18日的一份報(bào)告中表示：“盡管亞洲需求旺盛，但由于銀行業(yè)壓力、對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的擔(dān)憂以及投資者外流，油價(jià)仍大幅下跌。”“從歷史上看，在這樣的重大事件之后，倉(cāng)位和價(jià)格只能逐漸恢復(fù)，尤其是長(zhǎng)期價(jià)格。”

本周全球市場(chǎng)動(dòng)蕩不安，瑞士信貸集團(tuán)(Credit Suisse Group AG)的動(dòng)蕩引發(fā)了整個(gè)市場(chǎng)的恐慌。油價(jià)已跌至15個(gè)月低點(diǎn)，布倫特原油本周下跌12%，至每桶73美元以下。

隨著油價(jià)下跌，該銀行現(xiàn)在預(yù)計(jì)歐佩克產(chǎn)油國(guó)只會(huì)在2024年第三季度增加產(chǎn)量，而高盛在價(jià)格暴跌前估計(jì)的是2023年下半年。

壽琳玲 編譯自 鉆機(jī)地帶

原文如下：

Oil Prices Won't Hit $100 This Year

Goldman Sachs Group Inc., one of the most bullish banks on its outlook for oil, has nudged its forecasts down as worries over the banking sector and the potential for recession outweigh a surge in demand from Asia.

The bank’s analysts now see Brent reaching $94 a barrel for the 12 months ahead, and $97 a barrel in the second half of 2024, versus $100 a barrel previously.

“Oil prices have plunged despite the Asian demand boom given banking stress, recession fears, and an exodus of investor flows,” the bank said in a March 18 note. “Historically, after such scarring events, positioning and prices recover only gradually, especially long-dated prices.” 

Global markets have been roiled this week as turmoil at Credit Suisse Group AG triggered panic across markets. Oil has slumped to a 15-month low, with Brent dropping 12% this week to below $73 a barrel. 

Following the decline in prices, the bank now expects OPEC producers to only increase output in the third quarter of 2024, versus in the second half of 2023 which Goldman had estimated before the price rout.