據(jù)烴加工網(wǎng)3月22日?qǐng)?bào)道，據(jù)行業(yè)分析師稱，隨著美國(guó)煉油商調(diào)整業(yè)務(wù)，以應(yīng)對(duì)未來(lái)10年國(guó)內(nèi)汽車燃料需求的下降，他們將尋求最大限度地提高柴油和生物燃料的產(chǎn)量以出口。

隨著全球柴油庫(kù)存下降和需求激增，全球煉油能力的合理化以及地緣政治沖突的繼續(xù)鼓勵(lì)美國(guó)煉油商優(yōu)先考慮餾分油。

在去年的高峰期，美國(guó)煉油廠每天出口創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的157萬(wàn)桶蒸餾燃料，利潤(rùn)率每桶超過(guò)70美元，是汽油的兩倍多。

Tudor，Pickering and Holt分析師表示，盡管餾分油利潤(rùn)率已降至每桶31.35美元左右，但仍是5年平均水平的兩倍。

精煉燃料分析公司(Refined Fuels Analytics)董事總經(jīng)理奧爾斯(John Auers)說(shuō)，這些利潤(rùn)將鼓勵(lì)全球下游企業(yè)投資生產(chǎn)柴油和其他高價(jià)值產(chǎn)品。

Auers在圣安東尼奧舉行的美國(guó)燃料和石化制造商年會(huì)上表示，未來(lái)面臨最大風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的將是那些生產(chǎn)更多汽油的煉油廠。

在21世紀(jì)的大部分時(shí)間里，由于發(fā)動(dòng)機(jī)燃油效率的提高和電動(dòng)汽車數(shù)量的增加，美國(guó)人均汽油需求一直在下降。

然而Auers預(yù)測(cè)，到2045年，中等餾分油的總需求將增加1080萬(wàn)桶/天，增幅為32%，其中柴油將增加480萬(wàn)桶，航空燃料將增加600萬(wàn)桶。

運(yùn)輸燃料產(chǎn)量的增長(zhǎng)將集中在生物燃料上。馬拉松石油公司和菲利普斯66公司等煉油廠一直在對(duì)煉油廠進(jìn)行改造，以生產(chǎn)可再生柴油和可持續(xù)航空燃料等生物燃料。

根據(jù)精煉燃料分析公司匯編的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，2022年，美國(guó)可再生柴油產(chǎn)量超過(guò)10萬(wàn)桶/日，是2021產(chǎn)量的兩倍多。

Auers說(shuō)，到2025年，美國(guó)將成為重要的生物燃料出口國(guó)，可能是世界上最大的可持續(xù)航空燃料和可再生柴油出口國(guó)。

郝芬 譯自 烴加工網(wǎng)

原文如下：

U.S. refiners shift focus to distillates amid energy transition

As U.S. refiners rejigger operations to reflect declining domestic motor fuels demand in the next decade, they will seek to maximize diesel and biofuels production for exports, industry analysts say.

A rationalization of global refining capacity along with the war has encouraged U.S. refiners to prioritize distillates as global diesel inventories sagged and demand jumped.

At its peak last year, U.S. refiners were exporting a record 1.57 million barrels per day of distillate fuel, with profit margins topping $70 a barrel, more than double that of gasoline.

While distillate margins have cooled to around $31.35 a barrel, according to analysts at Tudor, Pickering and Holt, they remain double the five-year average.

Those profits will encourage downstream companies globally to invest in producing diesel and other high-value products, said John Auers, managing director of Refined Fuels Analytics.

"The refineries that will be most at risk in the future will be those that are geared to produce more gasoline," Auers said in remarks at the American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers annual meeting in San Antonio.

Gasoline demand per capita has been declining in the United States for much of the 21st century, due to increased fuel efficiency of engines and rising share of electric vehicles.

In contrast, Auers forecasts that total middle distillates demand will increase by 10.8 million barrels per day (bpd), or 32%, by 2045, with diesel growing by 4.8 million barrels and jet fuel by 6 million barrels.

Transportation fuel production growth will be focused on biofuels. Oil refiners such as Marathon Petroleum and Phillips 66 have been retrofitting oil refineries to produce biofuels such as renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel.

U.S. production of renewable diesel topped 100,000 bpd in 2022, more than double 2021's production level, according to data compiled by Refined Fuel Analytics.

The U.S. will become an important biofuels exporter, likely the world’s largest, of sustainable aviation fuel and renewable diesel by 2025, Auers said.