據(jù)鉆機(jī)地帶3月9日?qǐng)?bào)道， 美國(guó)能源信息管理局（EIA）在本周發(fā)布的最新《短期能源展望》（STEO）中下調(diào)了2023年布倫特和西得克薩斯中質(zhì)油（WTI）價(jià)格預(yù)測(cè)。

根據(jù)3月份的STEO，EIA目前預(yù)計(jì)今年布倫特原油現(xiàn)貨均價(jià)為每桶82.95美元，WTI現(xiàn)貨均價(jià)為每桶77.10美元。在2月初發(fā)布的上一份STEO中，EIA預(yù)計(jì)2023年布倫特現(xiàn)貨均價(jià)為每桶83.63美元，WTI現(xiàn)貨均價(jià)為每桶77.84美元。

3月和2月的STEO對(duì)2024年油價(jià)的預(yù)測(cè)相同。他們都預(yù)測(cè)，明年布倫特原油和WTI原油的現(xiàn)貨均價(jià)分別為每桶77.57美元和71.57美元。

EIA在其最新的STEO中表示，預(yù)計(jì)布倫特原油現(xiàn)貨均價(jià)將從2023年第二季度的每桶84美元降至第四季度的每桶81美元，然后2024年降至每桶78美元。

EIA在STEO報(bào)告中補(bǔ)充稱(chēng)，盡管預(yù)計(jì)全球石油庫(kù)存將在整個(gè)預(yù)測(cè)期內(nèi)增加，但由于煉油利潤(rùn)率上升，煉油廠(chǎng)對(duì)原油的高需求將在今年第二季度限制原油價(jià)格的下行壓力，因?yàn)闊捰蜕虒⒕S持高水平的原油投入，以最大限度地提高餾分燃料產(chǎn)量。

EIA在其最新的STEO中指出，預(yù)計(jì)2023年全球石油和液體燃料的日均產(chǎn)量將達(dá)到1.015億桶，該組織預(yù)計(jì)這一產(chǎn)量將比2022年增加160萬(wàn)桶。EIA在3月份的STEO中表示，預(yù)計(jì)到2023年，全球液體燃料消費(fèi)量將比2022年增加150萬(wàn)桶/天。該組織目前預(yù)計(jì)，2023年全球消費(fèi)量將達(dá)到1.009億桶/天。

其他機(jī)構(gòu)預(yù)測(cè)

而在本周發(fā)給鉆機(jī)地帶的一份油價(jià)展望報(bào)告中，惠譽(yù)解決方案國(guó)家風(fēng)險(xiǎn)與行業(yè)研究下調(diào)了2023年布倫特原油價(jià)格預(yù)測(cè)。根據(jù)該公司的報(bào)告，惠譽(yù)解決方案目前預(yù)計(jì)今年布倫特原油均價(jià)為每桶90美元。該公司在2月初發(fā)送給鉆機(jī)地帶的上一份油價(jià)展望報(bào)告顯示，該公司預(yù)計(jì)今年布倫特原油均價(jià)為每桶95美元。

惠譽(yù)解決方案的兩份報(bào)告還包括彭博共識(shí)(Bloomberg Consensus)， 惠譽(yù)解決方案是該報(bào)告的貢獻(xiàn)者之一。最新報(bào)告中的彭博共識(shí)認(rèn)為，布倫特原油今年將達(dá)到每桶88美元，而上一份報(bào)告中彭博共識(shí)認(rèn)為，2023年布倫特原油將達(dá)到每桶87.3美元。

在本周發(fā)給鉆機(jī)地帶的另一份報(bào)告中，渣打銀行(Standard Chartered)維持了今年布倫特原油價(jià)格每桶91美元的預(yù)測(cè)。根據(jù)渣打銀行今年2月和1月發(fā)送給鉆機(jī)地帶的報(bào)告顯示，2023年布倫特原油價(jià)格預(yù)測(cè)相同。

在撰寫(xiě)本文時(shí)，布倫特原油價(jià)格為每桶82.52美元，WTI價(jià)格為每桶76.51美元。

到目前為止，布倫特原油2023年的峰值收于1月23日，為每桶88.19美元，而該商品2023年迄今為止的最低收于1月4日，為每桶77.84美元。到目前為止，2023年WTI的峰值收盤(pán)價(jià)是在1月26日，每桶87.47美元，2023年WTI的最低收盤(pán)價(jià)是在1月4日，每桶72.84美元。

郝芬 譯自 鉆機(jī)地帶

原文如下：

USA EIA Cuts 2023 Oil Price Forecasts

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) lowered its Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price forecasts for 2023 in its latest short term energy outlook (STEO), which was released this week.

According to the March STEO, the EIA now sees the Brent spot price averaging $82.95 per barrel and the WTI spot price averaging $77.10 per barrel this year. In its previous STEO, which was released at the start of February, the EIA projected that the Brent spot price would average $83.63 per barrel and that the WTI spot price would average $77.84 per barrel in 2023.

The March and February STEOs had identical oil price forecasts for 2024. They both saw the Brent spot price averaging $77.57 per barrel and the WTI spot price averaging $71.57 per barrel next year.

“We expect that the Brent crude oil spot price will fall from an average of $84 per barrel in the second quarter of 2023 to $81 per barrel in 4Q23, and then average $78 per barrel in 2024,” the EIA stated in its latest STEO.

“Although we expect global oil inventories will build throughout the forecast period, we expect that high demand for crude oil from refineries because of elevated refining margins will limit downward pressure on crude oil prices through 2Q23 as refiners maintain high levels of crude oil inputs to maximize distillate fuel production,” the EIA added in the STEO.

“It was a key supplier of distillate fuel to Europe, and changes in distillate trade flows as Europe reduced imports of distillate from the largger producer in recent months have kept distillate fuel margins well-above five-year averages. However, we forecast that increasing global oil inventories will contribute to falling crude oil prices beginning in 3Q23,” the EIA continued.

In its latest STEO, the EIA noted that it expects global oil and liquid fuels production will average 101.5 million barrels per day in 2023, which the organization outlined would be up 1.6 million barrels per day from 2022. The EIA stated in its March STEO that it expects global liquid fuels consumption to increase by 1.5 million barrels per day in 2023 from 2022. The organization is currently projecting total world consumption of 100.90 million barrels per day in 2023.

Fitch Solutions, Standard Chartered, Current Price

In an oil price outlook report sent to Rigzone this week, Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research lowered its Brent oil price forecast for 2023. According to the company’s report, Fitch Solutions now sees Brent averaging $90 per barrel this year. The company’s previous oil price outlook report, which was sent to Rigzone at the start of February, showed that the company expected Brent to average $95 per barrel in 2023.

Both Fitch Solutions reports also included a Bloomberg Consensus, which Fitch Solutions is a contributor to. The Bloomberg Consensus in the latest report saw Brent coming in at $88 per barrel this year, while the Bloomberg Consensus in the previous report saw Brent at $87.3 per barrel in 2023.

In a separate report sent to Rigzone this week, Standard Chartered maintained its Brent oil price forecast of $91 per barrel for this year. Standard Chartered reports sent to Rigzone in February and January this year showed the same Brent price projection for 2023.

At the time of writing, the price of Brent crude oil stood at $82.52 per barrel and the price of WTI stood at $76.51 per barrel.

The 2023 Brent peak close, so far, was seen on January 23, at $88.19 per barrel, while the commodity’s lowest 2023 close, so far, was seen on January 4, at $77.84 per barrel. The 2023 WTI peak close, so far, was on January 26, at $87.47 per barrel, and the lowest 2023 WTI close, so far, was seen on January 4, at $72.84 per barrel.