據(jù)油價(jià)網(wǎng)12月6日消息稱，在通貨膨脹、地緣政治危機(jī)和供應(yīng)鏈不安全加劇了全球經(jīng)濟(jì)不確定性的一年里，中東見證了連續(xù)第二年的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)，該地區(qū)國(guó)家投資于新技術(shù)和項(xiàng)目，這可能預(yù)示著未來(lái)幾年更大程度的區(qū)域一體化。

根據(jù)國(guó)際貨幣基金組織10月的預(yù)測(cè)，全球GDP增長(zhǎng)預(yù)計(jì)將從2021年的6%放緩至2022年的3.2%，而持續(xù)的高油價(jià)將推動(dòng)中東的GDP增長(zhǎng)從2021年的4.1%升至2022年的5%。盡管預(yù)計(jì)到2023年，區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)增速將放緩至3.6%，但仍超過(guò)了2.7%的全球預(yù)測(cè)數(shù)字。

海灣合作委員會(huì)的產(chǎn)油國(guó)是該地區(qū)今年表現(xiàn)最好的國(guó)家：科威特的GDP預(yù)計(jì)將在2022年增長(zhǎng)8.7%，其次是沙特阿拉伯（7.6%）、阿聯(lián)酋（5.1%）和阿曼（4.4%）。與此同時(shí)，在石油的支撐下，伊拉克的GDP增長(zhǎng)了9.3%，埃及(6.6%)和阿爾及利亞(4.7%)繼續(xù)在后疫情時(shí)代復(fù)蘇。

石油收入帶來(lái)的意外之財(cái)帶來(lái)了更大的財(cái)政靈活性和外部平衡盈余，使海灣合作委員會(huì)成員國(guó)能夠繼續(xù)為其多樣化努力提供資金，同時(shí)改善外交關(guān)系為加強(qiáng)區(qū)域和全球一體化提供了可能性。

曹海斌 摘譯自 油價(jià)網(wǎng)

原文如下：

High Oil Prices Are Fueling Economic Growth In The Middle East

In a year of global economic uncertainty fuelled by inflation, geopolitical crises and supply chain insecurity, the Middle East witnessed a second consecutive year of economic growth, with countries in the region investing in new technologies and projects that could herald greater integration in the years ahead.

Whereas global GDP expansion is projected to slow from 6% in 2021 to 3.2% in 2022, sustained high oil prices are set to push GDP growth in the Middle East from 4.1% in 2021 to 5% in 2022, according to an October forecast from the IMF. Although regional economic expansion is slated to moderate somewhat to 3.6% in 2023, this nonetheless outpaces the projected global figure of 2.7%.

Oil-producing countries in the GCC were the region’s top performers this year: Kuwait’s GDP is expected to expand by 8.7% in 2022, followed by Saudi Arabia (7.6%), the UAE (5.1%) and Oman (4.4%). Iraq, meanwhile, saw GDP growth of 9.3% on the back of oil, while Egypt (6.6%) and Algeria (4.7%) continued their post-Covid-19-pandemic recoveries.

The windfall from oil revenue has generated more fiscal flexibility and external balance surpluses, allowing GCC members to continue to fund their diversification efforts, while improving diplomatic relations have opened the possibility for enhanced regional and global integration.