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惠譽:2023年石油市場最大的下行風險

   2022-11-23 互聯網綜合消息

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核心提示:據油價網11月17日消息稱,今年短期油價預測一直看漲,大多數預測者預計明年某個時候基準油價將突破100美元

據油價網11月17日消息稱,今年短期油價預測一直看漲,大多數預測者預計明年某個時候基準油價將突破100美元。然而,從長遠來看,情況會發生變化。例如,高盛(Goldman Sachs)本周在一份報告中表示,預計油價可能會飆升至每桶125美元。其對2023年布倫特原油價格的基本預測為每桶110美元。

不過,至少惠譽解決方案認為,從長期來看,情況似乎會發生變化。該公司在一份獨家分享給Rigzone的報告中表示,預計油價將從今年的102美元下降到2023年的95美元,并在2026年進一步下降到85美元。

這種預期油價將在未來三年下跌的原因是宏觀經濟背景,世界許多地區幾個月來一直在發出衰退警告。在這種預期中,惠譽絕非個例。許多分析師預計經濟將出現衰退,盡管并非所有人都對這些經濟趨勢導致的油價走向達成一致。

正是由于對經濟衰退的擔憂,歐佩克自己下調了對石油需求的預期,而今年早些時候,盡管油價上漲,石油需求仍在以健康的速度增長。然而,在最新的《石油市場月度報告》中,情況并非如此。歐佩克在報告中表示,影響油價的經濟因素向下行傾斜,并將需求增長預期修正了10萬桶/天。

衰退預期對油價的影響有多強烈,幾乎每天都有所顯現:在有關油價的媒體報道中,對衰退的擔憂是任何交易時段油價下跌的原因,其頻率高于其他因素。

與此同時,有關經濟衰退的預測不斷出現,尤其是對歐洲的預測。

貝倫貝格首席經濟學家霍爾格·施米丁(Holger Schmieding)在談到歐盟經濟前景時對CNBC表示:“消費者信心大幅下降,衰退可能不會很表面。”

歐元區經濟增速料將從第二季的0.8%收縮至第三季的0.2%。這仍然是一個積極的數字,但經濟學家似乎對明年歐盟是否將面臨重新補充天然氣儲存設施的挑戰持懷疑態度。

路透社的約翰?坎普(John Kemp)在本月早些時候的一篇專欄文章中指出,經濟衰退肯定會壓低油價。他在信中說,盡管許多身居官方職位的經濟學家在“衰退”這個詞上轉來轉去,卻沒有真正使用這個詞,但美國的經濟放緩已經開始。這一點在歐盟也很明顯。

那么,從現在開始的問題是,這些經濟體的經濟還會放緩到什么程度。它們經濟恢復的速度越慢,對石油的需求破壞就越大,因此對國際價格的影響也就越大。

曹海斌 摘譯自 油價網

原文如下:

Fitch: This Is The Biggest Downward Risk For Oil Markets In 2023

Short-term oil price forecasts have been persistently bullish this year, with most forecasters expecting benchmarks to top $100 sometime next year. Over the longer term, however, things change. Goldman Sachs, for instance, this week said in a note that it expected oil could surge to $125 per barrel. Its base-case forecast for 2023 is for Brent at $110 per barrel, but stronger demand if and when restrictions end could push the price even higher.

Over the longer term, things appear to change, however, at least according to Fitch Solutions. The company said in a report shared exclusively with Rigzone that it expected oil prices to fall from $102 this year to $95 in 2023 and further to $85 in 2026.

The reason for this expectation that oil will decline in price over the next three years is the macroeconomic context that has been flashing recession warnings for months in many parts of the world. In that expectation, Fitch is far from alone. A lot of analysts expect a recession, although not all of them agree on the direction oil prices are going to take as a result of these economic trends.

It was because of recession concern that OPEC itself cut its forecast for oil demand, while earlier this year, it was growing at a healthy pace despite the price rally. Not in the latest Monthly Oil Market Report, however. In it, OPEC said that the economic factors affecting oil prices were skewed to the downside and revised demand growth predictions by 100,000 bpd.

Just how strong the influence of recession expectations is on oil prices can be seen on an almost daily basis: media reports on oil prices note fears of recession as a reason for any price drop during any trading session more frequently than any other factors.

Meanwhile, forecasts about the looming recession keep coming, especially for Europe.

“Consumer confidence has plunged so badly that the recession will likely not be shallow,” the chief economist of Berenberg, Holger Schmieding, told CNBC in the context of the economic outlook for the European Union.

The euro-area economy’s growth is seen contracting from 0.8 percent in the second quarter to 0.2 percent in the third quarter. It’s still a positive number, but economists appear to have their doubts about next year when the EU will face the challenge of refilling their gas storage facilities.

A recession is a surefire way to depress oil prices, as Reuters’ John Kemp noted in a column earlier this month. In it, he said that despite many economists in official positions dancing around the word recession without actually using it, the slowdown had already begun in the United States. It is also evident in the European Union.

The question from now on, then, is just how much more those economies will slow down. The more they slow down, the greater the demand destruction in oil would be and, consequently, the greater the effect on international prices.



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