據(jù)油價(jià)網(wǎng)9月13日?qǐng)?bào)道，二疊紀(jì)盆地的石油產(chǎn)量預(yù)計(jì)將在下月創(chuàng)下歷史新高，EIA預(yù)測(cè)10月份的產(chǎn)量為541.3萬(wàn)桶/日。

值得注意的是，美國(guó)本土48個(gè)州的所有油田預(yù)計(jì)都將在10月份增產(chǎn)或保持產(chǎn)量。

盡管美國(guó)石油總產(chǎn)量仍低于疫情前的紀(jì)錄高位，但EIA認(rèn)為明年產(chǎn)量可能會(huì)創(chuàng)下新高。

美國(guó)能源情報(bào)署（EIA）在其最新的鉆井生產(chǎn)率報(bào)告中稱，二疊紀(jì)盆地原油產(chǎn)量下月將達(dá)到創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄高位，較9月增加6.6萬(wàn)桶/天，至541.3萬(wàn)桶/天。

EIA在其報(bào)告中還指出，從本月到下個(gè)月，美國(guó)本土48個(gè)州的石油總體日產(chǎn)量預(yù)計(jì)將增加13.2萬(wàn)桶，達(dá)到911.5萬(wàn)桶/日。10月份，所有油田的產(chǎn)量都會(huì)增加，沒(méi)有一個(gè)油田會(huì)下降，只有海恩斯維爾的產(chǎn)量保持不變。

美國(guó)能源情報(bào)署的最新數(shù)據(jù)顯示，美國(guó)石油總產(chǎn)量在6月份升至自2020年4月以來(lái)的最高水平，達(dá)到1180萬(wàn)桶/天。這仍低于疫情暴發(fā)前美國(guó)鉆井公司達(dá)到的創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄產(chǎn)量，但產(chǎn)量已從疫情崩潰中顯著復(fù)蘇。

石油公司仍對(duì)不惜任何代價(jià)的增長(zhǎng)保持警惕，尤其是因?yàn)樵O(shè)備和工人短缺等持續(xù)的限制，以及通脹導(dǎo)致的成本上升。但根據(jù)數(shù)據(jù)顯示，由于需求強(qiáng)勁，產(chǎn)出正在小幅上升，不僅是在美國(guó)，在國(guó)外也是如此。

然而，并非所有人都如此樂(lè)觀：先鋒自然資源公司（Pioneer Natural Resources）的斯科特?謝菲爾德（Scott Sheffield）上周表示，美國(guó)明年的石油產(chǎn)量增長(zhǎng)可能會(huì)低于今年，令人失望。

據(jù)路透社上周報(bào)道，由于上述限制因素，先鋒石油公司的首席執(zhí)行官預(yù)測(cè)，美國(guó)石油產(chǎn)量今年將增加50萬(wàn)桶/天，但2023年的產(chǎn)量增幅可能會(huì)低于這一數(shù)字。EIA預(yù)計(jì)2023年日產(chǎn)量將增長(zhǎng)80萬(wàn)桶。

根據(jù)該機(jī)構(gòu)的預(yù)測(cè)，美國(guó)原油產(chǎn)量明年可能達(dá)到創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的1260萬(wàn)桶/天，超過(guò)2019年疫情前創(chuàng)下的1230萬(wàn)桶/天的紀(jì)錄。

郝芬 譯自 油價(jià)網(wǎng)

原文如下：

Permian Oil Production Is Set To Hit A Record High

Permian Basin oil production is projected to hit a record high next month, with the EIA forecasting October production of 5.413 million bpd

It is notable that all plays in the Lower 48 are expected to increase or maintain production in October.

While total U.S. oil production remains below the pre-pandemic record high, the EIA believes production could hit new highs next year.

Crude oil production in the Permian Basin is set to hit a record high next month, adding 66,000 bpd from September to 5.413 million bpd, the Energy Information Administration said in its latest Drilling Productivity Report.

Total oil production in the Lower 48 is seen adding 132,000 bpd from this month to next, to reach a total of 9.115 million bpd, the EIA also noted in its report. All plays will see additions in output in October and none will see a decline, with only Haynesville’s output rate remaining unchanged.

The latest factual data from the EIA shows U.S. total oil production rose to the highest since April 2020 in June, to 11.8 million bpd. That’s still below the record-high rate of production U.S. drillers had reached right before the pandemic struck but a significant recovery from the pandemic collapse in production.

Oil companies remain wary of growth at any cost, not least because of continuing constraints such as equipment and worker shortages and higher costs due to inflation. Yet the data suggests output is inching up in response to robust demand, not only in the U.S. but abroad as well.

Yet not everyone is so optimistic: Pioneer Natural Resources’ Scott Sheffield said last week that U.S. oil production growth next year is likely to disappoint by being lower than this year’s.

The chief executive of Pioneer has forecast that U.S. oil production will add half a million barrels per day this year but in 2023 the production gains may be lower than this, Reuters reported last week, because of the above-mentioned constraints. The EIA forecasts production growth of 800,000 bpd for 2023.

According to the authority’s forecast, U.S. crude oil production could hit a record high of 12.6 million bpd next year, beating its pre-pandemic record of 12.3 million bpd, set in 2019.