海上油氣鉆井市場(chǎng)看起來(lái)正處于投資和活動(dòng)上升周期的早期階段 

斯倫貝謝公司和瑞士越洋鉆探公司都認(rèn)為，即將到來(lái)的周期將超過(guò)2016年-2019年的投資周期和最終投資決定（FID）活動(dòng)  

海上工程船和鉆機(jī)的需求正在攀升，大多數(shù)新鉆機(jī)合同的日費(fèi)率都高于之前的合同

據(jù)美國(guó)油價(jià)網(wǎng)8月8日?qǐng)?bào)道，全球主要油田服務(wù)和鉆機(jī)供應(yīng)商表示，在經(jīng)歷了多年的不確定性和停滯之后，海上鉆井市場(chǎng)正在反彈，正處于投資和活動(dòng)上升周期的早期階段，其速度將超過(guò)2016年-2019年周期。分析師和高管表示，海上鉆機(jī)利用率和日費(fèi)率也在上升，預(yù)計(jì)未來(lái)海上鉆井市場(chǎng)將趨緊。

在一份最新的全球海上鉆井展望報(bào)告中，承包商巨頭瑞士越洋鉆探公司表示，全球海上鉆井市場(chǎng)正在復(fù)蘇，而復(fù)蘇勢(shì)頭正在加快。 

瑞士越洋鉆探公司首席執(zhí)行官Jeremy Thigpen上周在評(píng)論公司第二季度業(yè)績(jī)時(shí)表示：“盡管過(guò)去8年對(duì)整個(gè)行業(yè)來(lái)說(shuō)都是極具挑戰(zhàn)性的，但隨著合同活動(dòng)、高規(guī)格超深水和惡劣環(huán)境資產(chǎn)的利用率以及日費(fèi)率的持續(xù)上升，海上鉆井市場(chǎng)的復(fù)蘇顯然正在進(jìn)行。” 

“而且，在油氣供應(yīng)面臨挑戰(zhàn)的背景下，我們?cè)絹?lái)越相信這種勢(shì)頭在可預(yù)見(jiàn)的未來(lái)會(huì)繼續(xù)下去。”Thigpen補(bǔ)充道。 

隨著世界繼續(xù)消耗大量的石油和天然氣，在地緣政治沖突發(fā)生以后，許多國(guó)家的政府將能源安全放在加速能源轉(zhuǎn)型的優(yōu)先地位，全球海上鉆井活動(dòng)將出現(xiàn)好轉(zhuǎn)。

“我們認(rèn)為情況很清楚，勘探和生產(chǎn)公司將繼續(xù)從事勘探和開(kāi)發(fā)工作，以滿足全球需求，補(bǔ)充不斷減少的儲(chǔ)量。這在需要我們的資產(chǎn)和服務(wù)的海上盆地尤其如此，這些地區(qū)的可采儲(chǔ)量水平較高，碳強(qiáng)度相對(duì)較低。”Thigpen在財(cái)報(bào)電話會(huì)議上如是表示。 

這位高管補(bǔ)充稱(chēng)：“隨著大宗商品價(jià)格持續(xù)走高，海上鉆井項(xiàng)目的經(jīng)濟(jì)效益仍具有持續(xù)發(fā)展的吸引力。”

Thigpen表示，隨著鉆井船利用率保持在90%以上，瑞士越洋鉆探公司認(rèn)為海上高產(chǎn)能鉆井資產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)將迅速收緊，未來(lái)還將進(jìn)一步收緊。 

上個(gè)月，世界上最大的油田服務(wù)提供商斯倫貝謝公司也對(duì)海上油氣鉆井市場(chǎng)表達(dá)了類(lèi)似的樂(lè)觀態(tài)度。  

斯倫貝謝公司首席執(zhí)行官Olivier Le Peuch在7月份舉行的公司財(cái)報(bào)電話會(huì)議上表示：“2022年-2025年海外投資和FID活動(dòng)的前景將明顯超過(guò)2016年-2019年周期。因此，我們迎來(lái)了這個(gè)海上周期的早期階段，但它非常有吸引力。”

他說(shuō)：“我們也看到了海上油氣資源的回歸，這是一個(gè)只會(huì)繼續(xù)擴(kuò)大的特點(diǎn)。如果僅僅從數(shù)量上看，在淺水區(qū)作業(yè)的自升式大型鉆機(jī)的需求數(shù)量實(shí)際上比之前的周期要高，超過(guò)了300部，深水鉆機(jī)也開(kāi)始趕上來(lái)。”Le Peuch補(bǔ)充道。 

Rystad能源服務(wù)研究高級(jí)副總裁Oddmund F?re在今年6月表示，海上工程船和海上鉆機(jī)的使用率不斷上升，日費(fèi)率也隨之上升，“多年來(lái)一直處于困境的海上鉆井市場(chǎng)終于可以從之前的努力中獲益”。

韋斯特伍德全球能源集團(tuán)海上能源服務(wù)經(jīng)理Mark Adeosun在一份關(guān)于承包商未來(lái)幾年海上支出的報(bào)告中寫(xiě)道：“在2020年-2021年期間，由于疫情、石油需求下降和油價(jià)暴跌，海上油氣行業(yè)將迎來(lái)一輪投資熱潮，以彌補(bǔ)過(guò)去幾年有限的支出。”

韋斯特伍德全球能源集團(tuán)鉆機(jī)市場(chǎng)情報(bào)服務(wù)機(jī)構(gòu)RigLogix的研究總監(jiān)Teresa Wilkie表示，據(jù)韋斯特伍德稱(chēng)，鉆機(jī)利用率呈上升趨勢(shì)，越來(lái)越多目前閑置的設(shè)備將進(jìn)入海上鉆井船隊(duì)。  

Wilkie指出：“近幾年來(lái)，由于承諾使用率的增加，大多數(shù)新鉆機(jī)合同的日費(fèi)率都高于之前的合同，這是海上鉆機(jī)市場(chǎng)趨緊的另一個(gè)指標(biāo)。”

李峻 編譯自 美國(guó)油價(jià)網(wǎng)

原文如下：

Offshore Drilling Is Coming Back With A Bang

·     It looks like the offshore oil and gas drilling market is in the early innings of an upcycle in investment and activity.

·     Both Schlumberger and Transocean believe that the upcoming cycle will outpace the 2016-2019 cycle of investment and FID activity.

·     Demand for offshore vessels and rigs is climbing, with most new rig contracts being fixed at day rates that are higher than their prior contracts.

After years of uncertainty and stagnation, the offshore drilling market is on the rebound and is in the early innings of an upcycle in investment and activity that will outpace the 2016-2019 cycle, major services and rig providers say.  Analysts and top offshore drilling executives say that offshore rig utilization and day rates are also rising in a market that is expected to tighten going forward.

In one of the latest outlooks on global offshore drilling, contractor giant Transocean says that the market is recovering, with momentum accelerating.  

"While the past eight years have been extremely challenging for the entire industry, it is clear that the recovery in offshore drilling is underway, as contracting activity, utilization rates for high-specification ultra-deepwater and harsh-environment assets, and dayrates all continue to rise," Transocean CEO Jeremy Thigpen said last week, commenting on the company's Q2 performance. 

"And, with a backdrop of hydrocarbon supply challenges, we are increasingly encouraged that this momentum could continue for the foreseeable future,"

Thigpen added.

As the world continues to consume a lot of oil and gas and many governments are prioritizing energy security to an accelerated energy transition after the war, the offshore drilling activity is set for an upturn. 

"We believe the case is clear that E&P companies will continue to engage in exploration and development work to meet worldwide demand and replenish diminishing reserves. This is especially true in the offshore basins requiring our assets and services where recoverable reserve levels are high and carbon intensity is relatively low," Transocean's Thigpen said on the earnings call. 

"With sustained constructive commodity prices, the economics of offshore projects remain compelling for continued development," the executive added. 

The company sees a rapid tightening of the offshore market for high capability drilling assets in various regions with committed drillship utilization remaining above 90%, and further tightening is on the horizon, Thigpen said. 

Last month, the world's largest oilfield services provider, Schlumberger, expressed a similarly optimistic view on offshore oil and gas drilling.

"The outlook for 2022, 2025 on offshore investments and FID activity will outpace visibly at 2016-2019 cycle. So we have early innings of this offshore cycle, but it's quite interesting," Schlumberger's CEO Olivier Le Peuch said on the earnings call in July. 

"We see also offshore, the return of offshore being a characteristic that will only expand going forward. If you were to just look at the -- in terms of numbers, the number of jack-up big operating in shallow waters is actually on par higher than it has been for the previous cycles, more than 300, and deepwater is starting to catch up," Le Peuch added. 

The market for offshore vessels and rigs sees utilization on the rise, followed by day rates, "finally allowing a market that has been in distress for many years to reap the benefits of the hard work that has been put down in the interim," Oddmund F?re, Senior Vice President, Energy Service Research, at Rystad Energy said in June. 

"After a turbulent 2020-21 period denominated by the Covid-19 pandemic, the erosion of oil demand and a crash in oil prices, the offshore O&G sector is prime for a flurry of investment to make up for limited spending over the last few years," Mark Adeosun, Manager - Offshore Energy Services, at Westwood Global Energy Group, wrote in an insight on contractor spending offshore over the next few years.

According to Westwood, rig utilization is trending higher, and more currently inactive units are set to enter the offshore vessel fleet, says Teresa Wilkie, Research Director of Westwood's rig market intelligence service RigLogix. 

"For the first time in several years, due to this increasing committed utilisation, most new rig contracts are being fixed at dayrates that are higher than their prior contracts - another indicator of a tightening rig market," Wilkie noted.