據美國鉆井網站2022年4月13日報道，惠譽解決方案國家風險和行業研究公司發布的一份新報告顯示，該公司將今年亨利中心天然氣期貨價格預測上調至4.9美元/百萬英熱單位。  

惠譽解決方案國家風險和行業研究公司的分析師在報告中指出，他們上調了之前4美元/ 百萬英熱單位的預測，因為他們預計美國液化天然氣（LNG）出口將繼續強勁增長，而美國國內夏季制冷用電需求強勁。 

展望未來，分析師在報告中預測，亨利中心明年的天然氣期貨平均價格將在4.5美元/百萬英熱單位，2024年在4.75美元/百萬英熱單位，2025年在4.85美元/百萬英熱單位，2026年在4.5美元/百萬英熱單位。 這一預測明顯高于彭博共識的預測。 彭博共識預計，亨利中心天然氣期貨的平均價格今年為4.1美元/百萬英熱單位，2023年為3.9美元/百萬英熱單位，2024年為4美元/百萬英熱單位，2025年為3.9美元/百萬英熱單位，2026年為3.4美元/百萬英熱單位。  

分析師說：“在更大范圍內實施禁止煤炭、石油和天然氣貿易的制裁措施的可能性，都對亨利中心的天然氣期貨價格有利，因為買家在可能的情況下急于取代進口。如果對歐洲能源貿易的持續影響出現，正如我們所預期的那樣，美國液化天然氣進口的增長勢頭將強勁，為未來幾年新增產能提供了一個現成的目的地。”

“然而，由于歐洲買家仍致力于限制排放的氣候目標，對頁巖氣產生的環境影響的擔憂，可能會限制新建立的貿易關系的長期可行性。”分析師如是說。  

惠譽解決方案國家風險和行業研究公司報告出爐時，亨利中心的天然氣現貨價格為6.4美元/百萬英熱單位。 

在4月12日發送給美國鉆井網站的一份市場報告中，挪威雷斯塔能源公司高級分析師Vinicius Romano強調，亨利中心的天然氣期貨價格在4月12日上午達到了13年來的最高點，超過了6.7美元/百萬英熱單位，原因是美國北部和加拿大南部的大部分地區正在經歷一個漫長的冬季。

李峻 編譯自 美國鉆井網站

原文如下：

Fitch Solutions Raises Henry Hub Price Forecast

Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research has raised its 2022 Henry Hub price forecast to $4.9 per MMBTU, a new report from the company has revealed.

Analysts at the company outlined in the report that they increased their previous forecast of $4 per MMBTU as they expect continued strong growth in U.S. LNG exports against strong domestic consumption for electricity for summer cooling.

Looking further ahead, the analysts forecasted in the report that the Henry Hub price would average $4.5 in 2023, $4.75 in 2024, $4.85 in 2025, and $4.5 in 2026. The projections were notably higher than the Bloomberg Consensus, which was also highlighted in the report. The Bloomberg Consensus sees the Henry Hub price averaging $4.1 this year, $3.9 in 2023, $4 in 2024, $3.9 in 2025, and $3.4 in 2026.

“The outbreak of Russia Ukraine war in late February 2022 is keeping energy markets on edge, with uncertainty on the scale of disruptions to energy trade remaining a key concern, keeping energy price volatility high,” the Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research analysts stated in the report.

“The potential to implement sanctions banning coal, oil and natural gas trade on a wider scale are all bullish for Henry Hub prices as buyers rush to replace Russian imports where possible. If lasting impacts to energy trade to Europe emerge, as we expect, the upside for U.S. LNG imports is strong, adding a ready destination for new capacity additions in the coming years,” the analysts added in the report.

“However, concerns about environmental impacts linked to the shale derived natural gas, could limit the long-term viability of new-found trade relationships as European buyers remain committed to climate targets limiting emissions,” the analysts continued.

Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research’s report was created when the Henry Hub spot price was $6.4.

In a market note sent to Rigzone on April 12, Rystad Energy’s senior analyst Vinicius Romano highlighted that the Henry Hub price was at a 13-year high on Tuesday morning, topping $6.7MMBTU, “as large swathes of the northern U.S. and Southern Canada experience a prolonged winter”.