據(jù)ICIS-MRC網(wǎng)站8月4日莫斯科報(bào)道，根據(jù)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾全球報(bào)告稱，英國石油公司8月3日將其2025年油價(jià)預(yù)期上調(diào)5美元/桶至60美元/桶，以反映預(yù)期的供應(yīng)約束，同時(shí)承諾在第二季度與維護(hù)相關(guān)的暴跌后，其自身產(chǎn)量將恢復(fù)。

　　這家石油公司在第二季度業(yè)績報(bào)告中，談到了行業(yè)環(huán)境的“改善前景”，并表示其自身的表現(xiàn)是“有彈性的”，盡管其上游石油生產(chǎn)和運(yùn)營部門的產(chǎn)量同比下降近25%，達(dá)到125萬桶/日石油當(dāng)量。其上游產(chǎn)量下滑被該公司專注于液化天然氣和低碳能源部門以及俄羅斯石油公司（Rosneft）更穩(wěn)定的產(chǎn)量所抵消，英國石油公司持有該公司近20%的股份。

　　英國石油表示，由于維修工作已經(jīng)完成，第三季度的產(chǎn)量應(yīng)該會(huì)提高。近幾個(gè)月來，維修工作阻礙了許多主要生產(chǎn)商的生產(chǎn)，同時(shí)重要的新項(xiàng)目也在增加。

　　該公司補(bǔ)充稱，預(yù)計(jì)印度、埃及、安哥拉和美國墨西哥灣的四個(gè)主要項(xiàng)目將在第二季度啟動(dòng)，從而提振產(chǎn)量。

　　據(jù)英國石油表示，石油市場正在重新平衡，全球庫存應(yīng)在2022年上半年恢復(fù)到歷史水平。因此，其提出了新的布倫特原油價(jià)格假設(shè)，將2025年的預(yù)測上調(diào)至60美元/桶，將2030年的預(yù)測維持在60美元/桶，但將2040年的預(yù)測從60美元/桶下調(diào)至55美元/桶，以反映向低碳能源轉(zhuǎn)型的加速。BP還將2050年的油價(jià)預(yù)期從50美元/桶下調(diào)至45美元/桶。

　　BP稱，在下游，該公司努力利用第二季度利潤率的廣泛改善，在需求強(qiáng)勁和北美重質(zhì)原油差異擴(kuò)大的支持下，預(yù)計(jì)煉油利潤率將略有提高。

　　郝芬 譯自 ICIS-MRC

　　原文如下：

　　BP increases oil price assumptions by USD5/b and promises output recovery following 25%-slump in Q2 2021

　　BP raised Aug. 3 its 2025 oil price assumption by USD5/b to USD60/b to reflect an expected supply constraint, while promising a recovery in its own production volumes following a maintenance-related slump in the second quarter, reported S&P Global.

　　In its Q2 results statement, the UK oil company spoke of an "improving outlook" in the industry environment and said its own performance was "resilient," even as production in its upstream oil production and operations unit fell nearly 25% on the year at 1.25 million b/d of oil equivalent. Its upstream production slump was offset by more stable production in the company's LNG-focused gas and low-carbon energy unit and at Rosneft, in which BP holds a near 20% stake.

　　BP said its third-quarter production should be higher due to the completion of maintenance, which has held back many of the major producers in recent months, as well as the ramp-up of key new projects.

　　Production is expected to get a boost from the startup of four main projects in Q2, in India, Egypt, Angola and the US Gulf of Mexico, the company added.

　　BP said the oil market was rebalancing and global stocks should revert to historical levels in the first half of 2022. It consequently set out new Brent oil price assumptions, raising its 2025 forecast to USD60/b, maintaining its 2030 forecast at USD60/b, but lowering its 2040 forecast to USD55/b from USD60/b to reflect an acceleration in the transition to low-carbon energy. BP also lowered its 2050 price assumption to USD45/b from USD50/b.

　　In downstream, where the company struggled to capitalize on broadly improved margins in Q2, "realized refining margins are expected to improve slightly supported by stronger demand and wider North American heavy crude oil differentials," BP said.