據(jù)全球能源新聞網(wǎng)5月8日?qǐng)?bào)道，被稱為“石油巨頭”的大型公司的已探明油氣儲(chǔ)量正在以驚人的速度下降，因?yàn)楫a(chǎn)量沒(méi)有完全被新發(fā)現(xiàn)所取代。根據(jù)雷斯塔能源（Rystad Energy）的一項(xiàng)分析顯示，去年石油巨頭的地下儲(chǔ)量減少了15%，剩余的儲(chǔ)量將在不到15年內(nèi)耗盡——除非這些公司能盡快發(fā)現(xiàn)更多的商業(yè)儲(chǔ)量。

　　隨著勘探投資的縮減和成功率的下降，這項(xiàng)任務(wù)變得越來(lái)越具有挑戰(zhàn)性。探明儲(chǔ)量的下降可能會(huì)給石油巨頭(埃克森美孚、英國(guó)石油、殼牌、雪佛龍、道達(dá)爾和埃尼)在未來(lái)幾年保持穩(wěn)定的生產(chǎn)水平帶來(lái)嚴(yán)重挑戰(zhàn)。這將導(dǎo)致收入減少，并對(duì)這些公司能源轉(zhuǎn)型計(jì)劃的融資構(gòu)成重大威脅。

　　石油巨頭發(fā)現(xiàn)其已探明儲(chǔ)量在2020年減少了130億桶油當(dāng)量，因?yàn)檫@些公司承擔(dān)了巨額減值支出，而且今年的勘探也沒(méi)有取得良好的開(kāi)端。全球油氣行業(yè)第一季度的發(fā)現(xiàn)量總計(jì)為12億桶油當(dāng)量，為七年來(lái)的最低水平，因?yàn)榕琶壳暗目碧竭h(yuǎn)景區(qū)未能開(kāi)采，而成功的初探油田只只獲得了中等規(guī)模的發(fā)現(xiàn)。

　　新冠疫情導(dǎo)致的原油需求和價(jià)格暴跌，以及對(duì)資本紀(jì)律的日益關(guān)注，導(dǎo)致了投資削減，這可能會(huì)加劇許多大型運(yùn)營(yíng)商在努力提高已探明儲(chǔ)量時(shí)面臨的挑戰(zhàn)。即使對(duì)于越來(lái)越關(guān)注能源轉(zhuǎn)型的歐洲巨頭來(lái)說(shuō)，商業(yè)模式也將繼續(xù)以油氣銷售為主。

　　雷斯塔能源負(fù)責(zé)上游研究的副總裁Parul Chopra表示，石油巨頭未來(lái)創(chuàng)收的能力將繼續(xù)取決于這些公司可供出售的石油和天然氣的量。如果儲(chǔ)量不足以維持生產(chǎn)水平，公司將發(fā)現(xiàn)難以為昂貴的能源轉(zhuǎn)型項(xiàng)目提供資金，從而導(dǎo)致其清潔能源計(jì)劃放緩。

　　?2020年，埃克森美孚的探明儲(chǔ)量比2019年減少了70億桶油當(dāng)量，即30%。這主要是由于加拿大油砂和美國(guó)頁(yè)巖氣儲(chǔ)量的減少。埃克森美孚在加拿大的液體探明儲(chǔ)量從48億桶石油調(diào)整為不到9億桶，而與瀝青相關(guān)的基爾和冷湖油砂項(xiàng)目的儲(chǔ)量從38億桶減少到不到1億桶。此外，美國(guó)一些頁(yè)巖油氣的液態(tài)儲(chǔ)量減少了10億桶。

　　?去年，殼牌已探明儲(chǔ)量下降20%，至90億桶油當(dāng)量。液態(tài)儲(chǔ)量占總儲(chǔ)量減少的三分之一，主要是美國(guó)和南美的項(xiàng)目，以及其它地區(qū)缺乏新發(fā)現(xiàn)的儲(chǔ)量。天然氣儲(chǔ)量占減少量的三分之二，其中澳大利亞項(xiàng)目調(diào)整為6億桶油當(dāng)量。

　　?盡管雪佛龍通過(guò)收購(gòu)來(lái)寶能源（Noble Energy）增加了約20億桶油當(dāng)量的已探明儲(chǔ)量，但由于減值，雪佛龍仍遭受了儲(chǔ)量損失。

　　?英國(guó)石油(BP)的探明總儲(chǔ)量從2019年的190億桶油當(dāng)量下降到2020年的180億桶油當(dāng)量，主要原因是出售現(xiàn)有資產(chǎn)和缺乏重大新發(fā)現(xiàn)。

　　?道達(dá)爾和埃尼集團(tuán)在過(guò)去十年中避免了探明儲(chǔ)量的任何減少。

　　作為衡量一家公司勘探業(yè)績(jī)指標(biāo)的新發(fā)現(xiàn)的儲(chǔ)量表明，石油巨頭在維持儲(chǔ)量基礎(chǔ)和向現(xiàn)有客戶供應(yīng)石油方面面臨巨大挑戰(zhàn)。在過(guò)去的五年里，這六家石油巨頭通過(guò)新發(fā)現(xiàn)的儲(chǔ)量?jī)H替代了45%的產(chǎn)量。埃克森美孚的表現(xiàn)好于同行，由于圭亞那近海Stabroek區(qū)塊發(fā)現(xiàn)了90億桶油當(dāng)量，增加了70%以上的已開(kāi)采儲(chǔ)量。

　　去年，道達(dá)爾在圭亞那-蘇里南盆地的勘探也取得了重大成功，而埃尼則得益于在非洲的成功。另一方面，雪佛龍和殼牌一直在努力登記新發(fā)現(xiàn)的儲(chǔ)量。從2016年到2020年，雪佛龍僅替換了15%的產(chǎn)量，而殼牌則替換了27%。

　　郝芬 譯自 全球能源新聞網(wǎng)

　　原文如下：

　　OIL AND GAS PROVEN RESERVES OF MAJOR COMPANIES ARE FALLING AT ALARMING RATE

　　The proven oil and gas reserves of the group of major companies called “Big Oil” are falling at an alarming rate, as produced volumes are not being fully replaced with new discoveries. A Rystad Energy analysis shows that Big Oil lost 15% of its stock levels in the ground last year, with remaining reserves set to run out in less than 15 years – unless the group makes more commercial discoveries, and fast.

　　The task is becoming more and more challenging as investments in exploration shrink and success rates slump. The declining proven reserves could create serious challenges for Big Oil (ExxonMobil, BP, Shell, Chevron, Total and Eni) to maintain stable production levels in coming years. This would in turn cause revenue to dwindle and pose a major threat to the financing of the group’s energy transition plans.

　　Big Oil saw its proven reserves drop by 13 billion barrels of oil equivalent (boe) in 2020 as the companies took large impairment charges, and this year’s exploration has not come off to a great start either. The industry’s global first-quarter discovered volumes totaled 1.2 billion boe, the lowest in seven years, as high-ranked prospects failed to deliver and successful wildcats only yielded modest-sized finds.

　　The collapse in crude oil demand and prices due to the Covid-19 pandemic and an increased focus on capital discipline has led to investment cuts that could aggravate the challenge of many major operators as they strive to boost their proven reserves. Even for European majors, which are increasingly focusing on the energy transition, business models will continue to be dominated by the sale of oil and gas.

　　“The ability of Big Oil to generate future revenues will continue to depend on the volume of oil and gas the companies have at their disposal to sell. If reserves are not high enough to sustain production levels, companies will find it difficult to fund expensive energy transition projects, resulting in a slowdown of their clean energy plans,“ says Parul Chopra, vice president of upstream research at Rystad Energy.

　　? ExxonMobil’s proven reserves shrank by 7 billion boe in 2020, or 30%, from 2019 levels. This was mainly due to reductions in Canadian oil sands and US shale gas properties. ExxonMobil’s proven reserves of liquids in Canada were revised from 4.8 billion barrels of oil to less than 900 million barrels, while bitumen-related reserves for the Kearl and Cold Lake oil sands projects were slashed from 3.8 billion barrels to less than 100 million barrels. In addition, liquid reserves related to some US shale plays have been reduced by 1 billion barrels.

　　? Shell saw its proven reserves fall by 20% to 9 billion boe last year. Liquid reserves accounted for one-third of total reductions and were mostly down to US and South American projects, and a lack of new discoveries elsewhere. Gas reserves accounted for two-thirds of the reductions, led by a 600 million boe revision in Australian projects.

　　? Chevron suffered reserve losses due to impairments, despite the addition of around 2 billion boe of proven reserves to its inventory through the acquisition of Noble Energy.

　　? BP saw its total proven reserves drop from 19 billion boe in 2019 to 18 billion boe in 2020, mainly due to the sale of existing assets and a lack of major new discoveries.

　　? Total and Eni have been able to avoid any reduction in proven reserves over the past decade.

　　New discovered volumes – a measurement of a company’s exploration performance – illustrates the daunting challenge faced by oil majors to maintain their reserves base and supply existing customers. Over the past five years, the six majors have replaced only 45% of their production through reserves from new discoveries. ExxonMobil fared better than its peers, adding more than 70% of the produced reserves thanks to 9 billion boe of discovered volumes in the offshore Stabroek Block in Guyana.

　　Total also enjoyed significant exploration success last year in the Guyana-Suriname basin, while Eni did well thanks to success in Africa. Chevron and Shell, on the other hand, have struggled to register new discovered volumes. Chevron managed to replace only 15% of its produced volumes from 2016 through 2020, while Shell replaced 27%.