???? 據今日油價4月5日報道，在過去的一個季度里，美國石油生產商對油價和需求的態度變得更加樂觀，并且已經從去年的低谷開始增加了鉆井活動。在2020年12月和2021年1月，原油產量穩定在1110萬桶/天左右，而目前WTI原油價格超過60美元/桶，石油鉆機數量的增加預示著今年下半年的月度產量將上升。

????路透社專欄作家John Kemp表示，考慮到鉆井活動在開始反映高油價之前還有幾個月的滯后時間，鉆井活動與石油產量變化之間還有6個月的滯后時間，最早將在本季度將開始看到美國產量增加。

????如果美國油價維持在每桶60美元左右，今年下半年產量增長可能進一步加劇。在這個價格點上，美國頁巖區塊的許多開采都是有利可圖的。

????預計今年石油產量的增長將只是漸進的，因為許多大型上市生產商更愿意提高股東回報，而不是將現金流以外的資金投入到鉆井項目上。然而，一些私營頁巖生產商可能會繼續為了產量增長而增加鉆井。這是因為每桶60-65美元的油價將在這些產量增加的水平上給他們的收入帶來相當大的提升，特別是在沒有華爾街審查產出決定的情況下。

????分析人士表示，目前的鉆井活動速度遠低于去年年初，可能僅夠維持美國石油產量的穩定。但每桶60美元的油價也不應被低估。

????上周最新的達拉斯聯邦能源調查顯示，在美國所有產油區，新井的盈虧平衡價格在46美元/桶至58美元/桶之間，二疊紀盆地的盈虧平衡價格平均為50美元/桶。Enverus董事總經理伊恩?尼布爾(Ian Nieboer)上月向英國《金融時報》表示:“在每桶65美元的油價下，沒有什么東西是行不通的。”他指出，新發現的規律可能會逐漸消失。

????美國石油鉆機數量顯示鉆井活動正在恢復。貝克休斯最新的鉆機數量報告顯示，上周美國公司的鉆機數量達到了去年1月以來的最高水平，在一周內增加了13臺鉆機。

????達拉斯聯儲調查顯示，2021年第一季度，石油和天然氣活動強勁擴張。六個月前景也明顯改善，該指數從2020年第四季度的21.6升至2021年第一季度的70.6，為該調查五年歷史上的最高水平。

????根據EIA的最新數據，2021年1月美國原油產量為1108萬桶/天，而2020年12月為1110萬桶/天，德克薩斯州1月原油產量環比增長0.5%，至466.3萬桶/天。2月和3月的數據因德克薩斯州的冰凍天氣而下降，導致每日數百萬桶的石油生產關閉了一個多星期。

????從第二季度開始，溫暖的天氣、超過60美元/桶的油價以及顯著改善的前景將重振美國的鉆井活動。由于油價上漲、鉆井活動和產量增加的滯后，今年的收益可能微乎其微。然而，明年美國的平均產量可能高達1200萬桶/天。這是EIA在3月份的《短期能源展望》(STEO)中做出的最新預測。由于預期油價較高，EIA將2022年的日產量預期較2月份的預測上調50萬桶。當然，美國的石油產量和高于預期的增長速度不會被歐佩克及其盟國忽視。

????上個月，該聯盟基本上把減產時間延長到了4月份，或多或少是押注于美國生產商將繼續限制產量。但本月，歐佩克+決定在未來三個月逐步恢復每月增產，增加的產量將超過100萬桶/天。這一決定在很大程度上是基于以下預期:隨著出行季的開始，以及主要經濟體推出刺激經濟增長的計劃，全球石油需求將會增強。

????如果美國鉆探活動的增長超過預期,歐佩克+可能再次陷入兩難境地：通過向市場投放更多石油，讓油價下滑；或者通過每月謹慎的上調石油供應規模，繼續支撐油價，但會讓美國頁巖油占得便宜。

????王佳晶 摘譯自 今日油價

????原文如下：

????U.S. Oil Production Is about To Climb

????Over the past quarter, U.S. oil producers have turned much more optimistic about oil prices and demand and have already increased drilling activity from last year’s trough.

????Crude oil production has stabilized at around 11.1 million barrels per day (bpd) in December 2020 and January 2021, while current oil prices at over $60 per barrel WTI and rising numbers of oil-directed rigs point to monthly rises in output later this year.

????Considering that there is a lag of several months before drilling activity begins to reflect higher oil prices and another six-month lag between drilling activity trends and changes in oil production, the U.S. is about to start seeing increased output as early as this quarter, Reuters columnist John Kemp says.

????Output gains could further intensify in the second half of the year if U.S. oil prices hold around $60 a barrel. At this price point, many - if not all - areas in the U.S. shale patch are profitable to drill.

????The rise in oil production is expected to be only gradual this year because many large listed producers would prefer to improve shareholder returns instead of investing beyond their cash flows into drilling. However, some private shale producers could continue to boost drilling for production growth’s sake. This is because $60-65 oil would give a sizable boost to their revenues at those increased production levels, especially since they don’t have Wall Street scrutinizing (and punishing) their output decisions.

????The current pace of drilling activity is much lower than at the start of last year, and it is likely just enough to keep U.S. oil production stable, analysts say. But the ‘siren song’ of $60 oil shouldn’t be underestimated.

????Across all U.S. oil-producing regions, average breakeven prices to profitably drill a new well range from $46 to $58 per barrel, with breakeven prices in the Permian averaging $50 a barrel, the latest Dallas Fed energy survey for Q1 showed last week. “There’s nothing that doesn’t work at $65 a barrel,” Ian Nieboer, a managing director at Enverus, told the Financial Times last month, noting that the newly-found discipline could fade away.

????The U.S. oil rig count points to recovering drilling activity. American firms added last week the highest number of rigs, 13, in one week since January last year, the latest Baker Hughes Rig Count report showed.

????During the first quarter of 2021, oil and gas activity expanded strongly, the Dallas Fed survey showed. Six-month outlooks also improved notably, with the index rising from 21.6 in Q4 2020 to 70.6 in Q1 2021, which was the highest reading in the survey’s five-year history.

????As per the latest available EIA data, U.S. crude oil production stood at 11.08 million bpd in January 2021, compared to 11.1 million bpd in December 2020, with Texas oil production rising by 0.5 percent month over month to 4.663 million bpd in January.

????The figures in February and March will be lower due to the Texas Freeze, which shut in millions of barrels of oil production per day for more than a week.

????Beginning in the second quarter, warmer weather, $60-plus oil prices, and significantly improved outlooks are set to reinvigorate American drilling activity. This year’s gains could be minimal because of the lag from oil price hikes to drilling activity to production boost. Next year, however, U.S. production could average as much as 12 million bpd. That’s the latest EIA forecast from the March Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). The EIA raised its 2022 production outlook by 500,000 bpd compared to the estimate from February because of higher expected oil prices.

????Of course, U.S. oil production and faster-than-expected increases will not go unnoticed by OPEC and its allies in the OPEC+ group.

????Last month, the alliance essentially rolled over the production cuts into April, more or less betting on continued restraint from American producers. But this month, OPEC+ decided it is gradually returning to monthly production hikes over the next three months for a total of more than 1 million bpd. Much of the decision was based on expectations that global oil demand will strengthen with the start of the driving season and with major economies rolling out packages to support growth.

????If U.S. drilling activity grows more than initially expected, OPEC+ could be caught between a rock and a hard place this summer, again: let oil prices slide by putting more oil on the market, or continue supporting oil prices with careful monthly increases, thus letting U.S. shale to take advantage.