???? 據鉆機地帶3月3日報道，挪威能源咨詢公司雷斯塔的最新分析表明，歐佩克+ 4月份可能會將產量提高130萬桶/天，保持市場平衡。

????據雷斯塔德石油市場負責人Bjornar Tonhaugen周二在一份發給Rigzone的聲明中表示:“我們還預計，沙特阿拉伯將逐步恢復其額外的每天100萬桶的減產，這并非協議的正式內容。”

????他補充稱:“到2021年晚些時候，沙特阿拉伯可能會在年底前略微削減產量。”

????在聲明中，Tonhaugen指出，目前的油價水平“非常健康”，已經引發了橫跨大西洋的美洲石油生產活動的增加。

????他表示:“歐佩克+當然不想錯過，許多石油盟國認為，現在是他們享受克制得來的果實、提高石油產量的時候了。”

????雷斯塔的代表預測，如果歐佩克+決定將產量提高50萬桶/天，即使價格將反映這一發展趨勢，其影響也將是“微不足道的”。

????“然而，歐佩克+的更大規模增產可能引發油價進一步下跌。然而，由于油價已經超過了60美元，這并不是一個真正可怕的打擊。只要油價超過50美元，不低于60美元的門檻，那么盈利能力仍然存在。”

????在仔細觀察沙特阿拉伯額外的每日減產100萬桶后，Tonhaugen警告稱，即使歐佩克+決定從4月起適度增產，如果沙特阿拉伯恢復額外的100萬桶，影響將是“相當大的”。

????他表示:“兩個月前，沙特出人意料地宣布取消石油生產，使得油價上漲了幾美元。若這一政策又忽然發生變化，那么上漲的油價也會受到影響。”

????Tonhaugen繼續表示:“如此大規模的意外政策變化帶來了市場大規模反應的風險，因此在即將到來的歐佩克+會議中，沙特的決定可能比集團政策更加重要。”

????歐佩克+計劃于3月4日通過視頻會議舉行會議。歐佩克+在1月份的上次會議上承認，有必要逐步向市場恢復200萬桶/日的產量，“速度將根據市場情況而定”。歐佩克＋還重申了上次會議的決定，即從2021年1月起，將日產量增加50萬桶，將減產幅度從770萬桶調整為720萬桶。

????裘寅 編譯自 Rigzone

????原文如下：

????OPEC+ Could Add 1.3MM Bpd and Keep Market Balanced

????Rystad Energy’s latest analysis indicates that OPEC+ could raise production by 1.3 million barrels per day (MMbpd) in April and keep the market balanced.

????“We also expect Saudi Arabia to gradually bring back its extra one million barrels per day in cuts, which are not officially part of the agreement,” Tonhaugen said in a statement sent to Rigzone on Tuesday.

????“Later in 2021, Saudi Arabia may slightly cut back on production volumes，” he added.

????In the statement, Tonhaugen noted that current oil price levels are “more than healthy” and have already triggered increased oil production activity across the Atlantic in the Americas.

????“OPEC+ reasonably will not want to miss out and not taste the cake it baked itself with hard work,” he said. “Many members of the alliance believe that it’s about time they enjoy the fruit of their restraint and raise oil output,” Tonhaugen added.

????The Rystad representative predicted that, if OPEC+ decides to lift output by 500,000 bpd, even though prices will reflect the development, the effect will be “marginal”.

????“A larger production boost by OPEC+ though could trigger a deeper decline in oil prices. However, since they are already topping $60, it won’t really be such a terrible blow. Profitability remains even below that threshold anyway, at above $50,” Tonhaugen stated.

????Looking closer at Saudi Arabia’s extra million barrel per day cuts, Tonhaugen warned that, even if OPEC+ decides a modest output hike from April, if Saudi Arabia brings back those extra million barrels the impact will be “quite massive”.

????“Oil prices rose by several dollars when the Saudis announced their surprise decision to remove that production two months ago and these extra dollars can be cut back if that soft pillow is suddenly lost,” he said.

????“Unexpected policy changes of that magnitude entail the risk of large market reactions, so in the coming OPEC+ meeting the Saudi decision could weigh even more in importance than the group policy,” Tonhaugen continued.

????OPEC+ is scheduled to meet via videoconference on March 4. OPEC+’s last meeting in January acknowledged the need to gradually return two million bpd to the market, “with the pace being determined according to market conditions”. It also reconfirmed the decision made at the previous meeting to increase production by 500,000 bpd starting in January 2021 and adjusting the production reduction from 7.7 MMbpd to 7.2 MMbpd.?