???? 據(jù)今日油價3月4日報道，疫情、2020年原油價格暴跌和持續(xù)的全球石油供應過剩幾乎沒有減緩南美大規(guī)模近海石油繁榮的蓬勃勢頭。圭亞那興起了巨大的石油熱潮，而蘇里南也在處在發(fā)展的關鍵時刻，該地區(qū)最大的經(jīng)濟體巴西現(xiàn)在是世界第十大石油生產(chǎn)國。正是這些國家蓬勃發(fā)展的近海石油工業(yè)，將使南美成為世界領先的近海石油生產(chǎn)地區(qū)，甚至超過北美。盡管疫情和2020年油價暴跌，巴西的近海石油行業(yè)仍經(jīng)歷了強勁增長。年均油氣產(chǎn)量同比增長5%。正是巴西的鹽下油田和巴西國家石油公司(Petrobras)將重點放在開發(fā)超深水油田上，才促成了這種健康增長。鹽下石油產(chǎn)量飆升了近18%，達到260萬桶/天，占巴西總產(chǎn)量的69%。巴西國家石油公司公布了迄今為止最好的經(jīng)營業(yè)績，包括創(chuàng)紀錄的出口，該公司日均石油產(chǎn)量達228萬桶。2021年1月，巴西國家石油公司通過其Angra dos Reis終端的出口量達到了1930萬桶的新高。
??? 巴西鹽下油區(qū)極具吸引力的經(jīng)濟型資產(chǎn)將推動更大的投資和產(chǎn)量增長。在布倫特原油平均價格預計在60 - 70美元/桶的情況下，有許多資產(chǎn)都在以35美元/桶甚至更低的盈虧價格開采低硫中質(zhì)原油，這使它們獲得了很高的利潤。
????巴西國家石油公司已承諾在2021年至2025年期間投資550億美元，其中84.5%(465億美元)將用于勘探和生產(chǎn)活動，2021年用于勘探和生產(chǎn)的資金為81億美元。該公司計劃將其5年465億美元的勘探開發(fā)預算的70%(即325億美元)用于其鹽下油田，其中130億美元用于坎波斯盆地，117億美元用于桑托斯盆地的Buzios油田。即使出售了相當一部分淺水和非核心資產(chǎn)，到2025年，巴西石油的平均日產(chǎn)量仍將達到230萬桶，比2020年增加3%。由于有利的經(jīng)濟條件，外國能源巨頭也在與巴西國家石油公司一起投資巴西的鹽下油田。行業(yè)咨詢公司Rystad Energy預計，在中長期內(nèi)，巴西的原油產(chǎn)量將達到平均每天350萬桶以上。
????不僅是巴西的石油工業(yè)吸引了大量投資，并推動了該地區(qū)的油氣產(chǎn)量。圭亞那也正在經(jīng)歷自己的石油繁榮，估計盈虧平衡的價格在每桶23美元到35美元之間，這使得這個該國受到了能源投資者的重點關注。自2015年初以來，全球石油巨頭埃克森美孚在圭亞那近海發(fā)現(xiàn)了18處石油，估計其可采原油資源超過80億桶。盡管埃克森在2020年11月和2021年1月分別在Kaieteur和Stabroek區(qū)塊鉆了兩口干井，但該公司仍在繼續(xù)推進其在圭亞那近海的勘探計劃。這家石油巨頭上個月在Canje區(qū)塊開探了bullet - wood-1井，該井可能儲存超過5億桶石油當量。Canje與多產(chǎn)的Stabroek區(qū)塊和蘇里南近海58區(qū)塊接壤，Apache和道達爾自2020年1月以來在這里獲得了4個發(fā)現(xiàn)，而運營商Kosmos計劃在2021年在42個區(qū)塊開發(fā)一口探井。埃克森的Payara開發(fā)項目在2020年獲得批準，Liza 2在Stabroek區(qū)塊啟動，到2026年，這家石油巨頭的日產(chǎn)量將達到至少75萬桶。
????蘇里南的國有石油公司和油氣監(jiān)管機構statatsolie預計，到2025年，該國將在近海生產(chǎn)原油。根據(jù)行業(yè)咨詢公司GlobalData的數(shù)據(jù)，位于蘇里南近海58區(qū)塊的Maka Central-1油田是阿帕奇公司在圭亞那-蘇里南盆地首次發(fā)現(xiàn)的油田，該油田的原油儲量至少為3億桶。有分析師和業(yè)內(nèi)人士猜測，該油田可能比埃克森美孚位于Stabroek區(qū)塊的Liza油藏更大，后者擁有8億多桶原油。Apache預計將在2025年左右從58區(qū)塊開采原油。
????雖然巴西、圭亞那和蘇里南是南美洲主要的近海鉆井管轄區(qū)，但鄰近的哥倫比亞也希望加入競爭。自2020年疫情封鎖結(jié)束以來，這個安第斯國家一直在努力啟動其油氣行業(yè)。哥倫比亞為促進經(jīng)濟增長和關鍵的油氣儲量而采取的舉措之一是在2020年實施近海石油工業(yè)的新框架。能源部聲稱已經(jīng)為哥倫比亞的近海石油和天然氣項目獲得了16億美元的投資。這不僅會增加這個安第斯山脈國家的石油和天然氣儲量，還會推動產(chǎn)量的提高，特別是波哥大將重點放在吸引對經(jīng)濟至關重要的石油工業(yè)的進一步投資上。與圭亞那、蘇里南和巴西一樣，哥倫比亞近海油田的經(jīng)濟前景也很誘人，據(jù)自然資源管理研究所估計，其平均保本價格為每桶31.77美元。再加上波哥大有利的石油產(chǎn)業(yè)政策和政治穩(wěn)定，哥倫比亞應該能夠成功吸引國際能源公司的海外投資。
????咨詢公司IHS Markit的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，自2012年以來，拉丁美洲近海發(fā)現(xiàn)的石油數(shù)量穩(wěn)步上升，常規(guī)石油儲量的發(fā)現(xiàn)主要集中在近海地區(qū)。出于這些原因， GlobalData在2020年11月發(fā)布的一份新聞稿中稱，到2024年，南美的近海石油產(chǎn)量將超過北美的近海石油產(chǎn)量。Rystad預計，南美將引領疫情后的近海石油復蘇，這主要是因為該地區(qū)的經(jīng)濟優(yōu)勢，從現(xiàn)在到2025年，巴西和圭亞那將獲得超過三分之一的所有近海石油投資。因此，南美洲的近海油氣產(chǎn)量將在未來幾年飆升，并有可能成為世界上領先的近海鉆井地區(qū)。
????王佳晶 摘譯自 今日油價
????原文如下：
????Is This The World’s Next Big Offshore Oil Region?
????The COVID-19 pandemic, 2020 crude oil price crash and ongoing global petroleum supply glut have done little to slow the growth of South America’s massive offshore oil boom. The colossal oil boom underway in the tiny South American nation of Guyana is gaining momentum, while Suriname is on the cusp of experiencing its own and the region’s largest economy Brazil is now the world’s tenth largest oil producer. It is their booming offshore oil industries which will be responsible for South America becoming the world’s leading offshore petroleum producing regions, even surpassing North America. Despite the COVID-19 pandemic and 2020 oil price crash, Brazil’s offshore oil industry experienced strong growth. Annual average hydrocarbon output grew 5% year over year to barrels of oil equivalent daily. It was Brazil’s pre-salt oilfields and national oil company Petrobras’ focus on developing those ultra-deep-water fields which was responsible for that healthy growth. Pre-salt oil output soared by almost 18% to 2.6 million barrels daily to make up 69% of Brazil’s total hydrocarbon output. Petrobras announced its best-yet operational results, including record exports and annual average oil production of 2.28 million barrels per day. For January 2021, Brazil’s national oil company’s exports reached a new peak of 19.3 million barrels through its Angra dos Reis terminal.
????It is the attractive economics of Brazil’s pre-salt oil region which will drive greater investment and production growth. Many of those assets are pumping sweet medium grade crude oil at a breakeven price of $35 per barrel or even less, making them highly profitable in an operating environment where Brent is expected to average $60 to $70 per barrel.
????Petrobras has committed to investing $55 billion between 2021 and 2025 of which 84.5% or $46.5 billion will be directed to exploration and production activities with $8.1 billion being spent on E&P in 2021. The national oil company plans to spend 70% of its five-year $46.5 billion E&P budget, which is $33.5 billion, on its pre-salt oilfields with $13 billion earmarked for the Campos Basin and $11.7 billion on the Buzios oilfield in the Santos Basin. Even after selling a significant portion of its shallow water and non-core assets Petrobras’ oil production will average 2.3 million barrels daily by 2025, which is 3% greater than 2020. Foreign energy majors are also investing in Brazil’s pre-salt oilfields alongside Petrobras because of the favorable economics. Industry consultancy Rystad Energy predicted Brazil’s crude oil output will reach an average of over 3.5 million barrels daily over the medium to long-term.
????It is not only Brazil’s petroleum industry which is attracting considerable investment and driving higher regional hydrocarbon production. Offshore Guyana is experiencing its own major oil boom with particularly low estimated breakeven prices of anywhere between $23 to $35 per barrel boosting the attention the former British colony is receiving from energy investors. Global oil supermajor Exxon has made 18 oil discoveries in offshore Guyana since the start of 2015 and estimates that it has over eight billion barrels of recoverable crude oil resources. Despite drilling two dry wells during November 2020 and January 2021 in the Kaieteur and Stabroek blocks, Exxon is pressing ahead with its exploration plan in offshore Guyana. The oil supermajor, last month, spudded the Bulletwood-1 well in the Canje Block which could hold more than 500 million barrels of oil equivalent. Canje borders the prolific Stabroek Block as well as offshore Suriname blocks 58, where Apache and Total have made four discoveries since January 2020 and 42 where operator Kosmos has planned an exploration well for 2021. The 2020 approval of Exxon’s Payara development and the start-up of Liza 2 in the Stabroek block will see the oil major pumping at least 750,000 barrels daily by 2026.
????Suriname’s state-controlled oil company and hydrocarbon regulator Staatsolie expects the former Dutch colony to be producing crude oil offshore by 2025. According to industry consultancy GlobalData the Maka Central-1 field in Suriname offshore Block 58, Apache’s first discovery in the Guyana-Suriname Basin, holds at least 300 million barrels of crude oil. There is speculation from analysts and industry insiders that the oilfield could be even larger than Exxon’s Liza reservoir in the Stabroek block which holds over 800 million barrels of crude oil. Apache expects to be pumping crude oil from Block 58 by around 2025.
????While Brazil, Guyana and Suriname are the leading offshore drilling jurisdictions in South America, nearby Colombia is hoping to join the fray. The Andean country is struggling to kickstart its hydrocarbon sector since the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic lockdown ended. Part of Colombia’s initiatives to bolster economic growth along with crucial hydrocarbon reserves was to implement a new framework for its offshore petroleum industry during 2020. The energy ministry claims to have secured $1.6 billion of investment in offshore oil and natural gas projects for Colombia. That will not only bolster the Andean country’s oil and natural gas reserves but drive greater production, particularly with Bogota focused on attracting further investment in the economically crucial petroleum industry. Like Guyana, Suriname and Brazil, offshore Colombia offers attractive economics with the Natural Resource Governance Institute estimating an average breakeven price of $31.77 per barrel. When coupled with Bogota’s favorable petroleum industry policies and political stability, Colombia should successfully coax offshore investment from international energy companies.
????The volume of offshore oil discoveries in Latin America has risen steadily since 2012, according to consultancy IHS Markit, to see the volume of conventional oil reserve discoveries being made predominantly offshore. For these reasons, industry consultancy GlobalData, in a November 2020 media release, claimed South America’s offshore oil production will overtake North America’s offshore oil output by 2024. Rystad expects South America to lead the post-pandemic recovery of offshore, primarily because of the region’s advantageous economics with Brazil and Guyana earmarked to receive over a third of all offshore oil investment between now and 2025. For these reasons South America’s offshore hydrocarbon output will soar over the coming years, seeing it potentially become the world’s leading offshore drilling region.
