???? 據(jù)油價(jià)網(wǎng)2月19日消息稱，雷斯塔能源本周在一份分析報(bào)告稱，全球新冠疫情對(duì)需求的沖擊和能源轉(zhuǎn)型戰(zhàn)略將使大型石油公司的原油和天然氣產(chǎn)量在2028年或?qū)⒏邕_(dá)到峰值，其產(chǎn)量將低于此前預(yù)期。

????埃克森美孚、雪佛龍、英國(guó)石油、殼牌和道達(dá)爾這五家綜合超級(jí)巨頭的原油和天然氣總產(chǎn)量將在2028年達(dá)到每天1800萬(wàn)桶石油當(dāng)量的峰值，而疫情之前的預(yù)測(cè)預(yù)計(jì)，它們的總產(chǎn)量將持續(xù)上升，至2030年將超過(guò)2000萬(wàn)桶/天。

????雷斯塔能源的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，與2019年相比，去年大型石油公司的油氣總產(chǎn)量下降了近5%，即90萬(wàn)桶/天。分析人士稱，2020年，由于油價(jià)和石油需求的崩潰，五大石油巨頭也總共遭受了創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的760億美元的損失。

????過(guò)去一年，減排目標(biāo)和戰(zhàn)略改變了超級(jí)石油巨頭的長(zhǎng)期生產(chǎn)前景。

????雷斯塔能源目前預(yù)計(jì)，2025年這些巨頭的凈產(chǎn)量約為1750萬(wàn)桶/天，2028年峰值約為1800萬(wàn)桶/天。就在新冠之前，雷斯塔能源曾預(yù)計(jì)2025年的產(chǎn)量為1900萬(wàn)桶/天，2028年將達(dá)到2000萬(wàn)桶/天。

????一些承諾在2050年前成為凈零排放企業(yè)的歐洲大型石油公司已經(jīng)表示，它們的石油產(chǎn)量將在未來(lái)幾年逐漸下降。

????例如，英國(guó)石油公司表示，它將把在低碳能源方面的投資增加10倍，達(dá)到每年50億美元，并在2030年前將石油和天然氣產(chǎn)量減少40%。本月早些時(shí)候，殼牌表示，其石油產(chǎn)量將在2019年見頂，并將在未來(lái)30年持續(xù)下降。

????雷斯塔能源的上游分析師RahulChodhary表示：“未來(lái)10年，五大石油巨頭成功的關(guān)鍵將是加強(qiáng)其在更具彈性的地區(qū)的業(yè)務(wù)，重組和調(diào)整規(guī)模以適應(yīng)市場(chǎng)需求，并償還其高負(fù)債水平。”

????朱佳妮 摘譯自 鉆井地帶

????原文如下：

????Big Oil To See Production Peak In 2028

????The pandemic shock to demand and the energy transition strategies are set to bring peak crude and natural gas production for Big Oil in 2028, at a lower volume and earlier than previously expected, Rystad Energy said in an analysis this week.

????The five integrated supermajors – ExxonMobil, Chevron, BP, Shell, and Total – will see their combined crude oil and natural gas production peak at 18 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd) in 2028, compared to projections from before COVID-19 that had expected the combined production to continue rising until 2030 at over 20 million bpd.

????Last year, Big Oil’s combined oil and gas production declined by close to 5 percent, or by 900,000 boepd, compared to 2019, according to Rystad Energy. In 2020, the five supermajors also incurred a record combined $76 billion loss due to the crash in oil prices and oil demand, the analysts said.

????Over the past year, emission reduction targets and strategies have altered the long-term outlook for the supermajors’ production.

????Rystad Energy now sees the majors’ net production at around 17.5 million boepd in 2025 and peaking at around 18 million boepd in 2028. Just before the pandemic, Rystad Energy had expected 2025 production to be at 19 million boepd and 20 million boepd in 2028.

????Some of the European supermajors that have committed to becoming net-zero emission businesses by 2050 have already said that their oil production would gradually drop over the years.

????BP, for example, said it would boost its investment in low-carbon energy ten times to US$5 billion a year and reduce oil and gas production by 40 percent by 2030. Earlier this month, Shell said its oil production peaked in 2019 and is set for a continual decline over the next three decades.

????“The key to success for the five majors over the next decade will be to strengthen their business in more resilient regions, restructure and resize to match the market needs, and pay back their high debt levels,” said Rahul Choudhary, upstream analyst at Rystad Energy.