據(jù)鉆機(jī)地帶6月15日消息，由于新冠疫情危機(jī)的影響，未來(lái)兩年油價(jià)上漲的條件已經(jīng)成熟。

　　波士頓咨詢集團(tuán)(BCG)周一發(fā)布的一份新報(bào)告稱，該公司認(rèn)為，疫苗接種計(jì)劃極有可能“釋放全球經(jīng)濟(jì)關(guān)鍵領(lǐng)域被壓制的巨大石油需求”。該公司表示，這種激增的需求將同時(shí)伴隨著去年油價(jià)下跌時(shí)生產(chǎn)商大幅削減資本支出 (CAPEX) 造成的供應(yīng)短缺。

　　BCG在報(bào)告中指出，鑒于即將到來(lái)的需求增長(zhǎng)的快速發(fā)展，下一個(gè)超級(jí)周期的出現(xiàn)時(shí)間可能會(huì)比之前的價(jià)格上漲期所對(duì)應(yīng)的周期要短。該公司強(qiáng)調(diào)，這種快速增長(zhǎng)將給供應(yīng)商和用戶帶來(lái)壓力。

　　BCG在報(bào)告中表示:“因此，我們認(rèn)為價(jià)格上漲發(fā)生的可能性很高，但也可能很快結(jié)束——在18個(gè)月內(nèi)，甚至更短的時(shí)間內(nèi)。”

　　“也許更重要的是，這次石油增長(zhǎng)期可能是全球史上最后一次。石油市場(chǎng)體系繼續(xù)變得更加靈活，供需都比過(guò)去更有彈性，這使得增長(zhǎng)發(fā)生的可能性更小。即使出現(xiàn)這種情況，峰值價(jià)格也可能會(huì)更低。”BCG在報(bào)告中補(bǔ)充道。

　　BCG警告稱，有幾個(gè)因素可能會(huì)影響增長(zhǎng)的時(shí)機(jī)，抑制或加劇未來(lái)的價(jià)格上漲。該公司強(qiáng)調(diào)，進(jìn)一步的封鎖限制或新冠病毒變種的出現(xiàn)可能會(huì)立即阻止需求的上升，推遲甚至結(jié)束任何正在出現(xiàn)的油價(jià)上漲。

　　裘寅 編譯自 鉆機(jī)地帶

　　原文如下：

　　Conditions Ripe for Oil Price Boom

　　As a result of the Covid-19 crisis, conditions are ripe for an oil price boom during the next two years.

　　That’s according to a new report published by Boston Consulting Group (BCG) on Monday, which outlined that the company sees high potential for vaccination programs to “unleash huge pent-up demand for oil in key areas of the global economy”. The company said this surging demand will coincide with a supply shortfall created by producers that cut capital expenditure (CAPEX) sharply when oil prices fell last year.

　　Given the rapid development of the upcoming boom, the next supercycle will likely occur on a time scale that will be shorter than the ones associated with prior price booms, BCG noted in the report. The company highlighted that this quick rise will put pressure on suppliers and end users.

　　“We therefore see a high probability that a price boom will occur but also that it could be over quite quickly - within 18 months, or even less,” BCG stated in the report.

　　“Perhaps more important, this oil boom could be the world’s last. The oil market system continues to become more flexible, with both supply and demand more elastic than in the past, making booms less likely to happen. And even if they do occur, peak prices are likely to be lower,” BCG added in the report.

　　BCG warned that several factors could affect the timing of a boom and either curb or exacerbate future price rises. Further lockdown restrictions or the appearance of new Covid-19 variants could immediately halt upward demand movement and delay or even end any emerging oil price boom, the company highlighted.

免責(zé)聲明：本網(wǎng)轉(zhuǎn)載自其它媒體的文章，目的在于弘揚(yáng)石化精神，傳遞更多石化信息，并不代表本網(wǎng)贊同其觀點(diǎn)和對(duì)其真實(shí)性負(fù)責(zé)，在此我們謹(jǐn)向原作者和原媒體致以敬意。如果您認(rèn)為本站文章侵犯了您的版權(quán)，請(qǐng)與我們聯(lián)系，我們將第一時(shí)間刪除。