據(jù)彭博新聞社2023年7月28日報道，全球石油供應趨緊，加上市場預期美聯(lián)儲的緊縮政策即將結束，推動原油價格創(chuàng)下一年多來最長的單周漲幅。

西得克薩斯中質(zhì)原油(WTI)在7月28日結束當周突破每桶80美元的心理關口，為始于6月底的漲勢畫上句號，這輪漲勢幾乎抹去了今年以來的跌幅。推動油價上漲的是歐佩克+的關鍵國家沙特阿拉伯等限制原油出口，這導致包括渣打銀行和瑞銀集團在內(nèi)的銀行預測未來幾個月全球平衡將趨緊。

現(xiàn)貨市場和金融市場都出現(xiàn)了供應緊張的跡象。在過去的四周里，位于俄克拉何馬州庫欣的美國主要儲存中心的庫存減少了750萬桶，使庫存降至5月份以來的最低水平。這支撐了WTI最近兩份合約的現(xiàn)貨溢價擴大，這種看漲的定價模式已升至去年11月以來的最高水平。

由于股市處于年度高點，更廣泛的風險偏好情緒也提振了油價。全球需求前景有所改善，有跡象表明亞洲經(jīng)濟將受到額外刺激，市場猜測美聯(lián)儲的加息已經(jīng)接近尾聲。

盡管油價上漲，但交易商仍在為可能出現(xiàn)的回調(diào)做準備，因本周原油在相對強勢的情況下多次處于超買區(qū)間。由于未平倉合約徘徊在今年1月以來的最低水平附近，油價仍不穩(wěn)定，容易出現(xiàn)大幅波動。

價格： 

紐約9月份交割的西得克薩斯中質(zhì)原油每桶上漲49美分，報收于每桶80.58美元。本周累計上漲4.6%。

布倫特原油9月份的結算價每桶上漲75美分，至每桶84.99美元。

李峻 譯自 彭博新聞社

原文如下：

Oil Posts Fifth Weekly Gain as Global Supply Tightens

Tightening global oil supplies and expectations that the Federal Reserve’s tightening is nearing an end propelled crude to the longest run of weekly gains in more than a year. 

West Texas Intermediate broke through the psychological level of $80 a barrel this week, capping a rally that started in late June and has nearly erased this year’s losses. Driving the advance are OPEC+ linchpins Saudi Arabia curbing exports, with Moscow reaffirming its commitment to those obligations this week. That has led banks, including Standard Chartered Plc and UBS Group AG, to forecast tightening global balances in the coming months.

Signs of supply tightness are showing up in both physical and financial markets. Inventories at the key US storage hub in Cushing, Oklahoma, have declined by 7.5 million barrels during the past four weeks, pushing stockpiles to their lowest since May. That’s supporting a widening in the backwardation of WTI’s nearest two contracts, a bullish pricing pattern that has grown to its largest since November.

Prices also have been aided by broader risk-on sentiment, as equity markets are trading at yearly highs. The global outlook for demand improved amid signs of additional stimulus for the Asian economy and speculation that the Federal Reserve’s rate hikes are near or at an end. 

Despite the rally, traders are bracing for a potential correction as crude has traded in overbought territory on its relative strength on several occasions this week. Prices remain volatile and prone to large swings as open interest hovers near the lowest levels since January.

Prices:

WTI for September delivery rose 49 cents to settle at $80.58 in New York..It’s up 4.6% for the week.

Brent for September settlement rose 75 cents to settle $84.99 a barrel.