據(jù)烴加工網(wǎng)7月24日報(bào)道，預(yù)計(jì)美國煉油利潤將從去年的歷史最高水平下滑，但仍將保持強(qiáng)勁，因國內(nèi)煉油廠停產(chǎn)和外國競爭加劇帶來挑戰(zhàn)。

在疫情時(shí)期工廠關(guān)閉和地緣政治沖突提振利潤率后，煉油商經(jīng)歷了一波有利的定價(jià)和強(qiáng)勁的需求。經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)放緩和全球煉油產(chǎn)能增加，已使市場從去年的高點(diǎn)回落。

TD Cowen分析師Jason Gabelman表示，收入絕不會(huì)疲軟，但應(yīng)該更為正常。

歐佩克+第二季度的石油減產(chǎn)使美國煉油商從市場上廉價(jià)購買重質(zhì)、含硫的原油，以從燃料銷售中獲得更高的利潤。

今年早些時(shí)候，由于冬季餾分油短缺，煉油商能夠以比柴油高得多的價(jià)格出售航空燃油，這種情況也有所緩解。Gabelman表示，原油價(jià)差和航空燃油對柴油的溢價(jià)回到了接近歷史水平的水平。

馬拉松石油公司(Marathon)和Phillips 66等煉油廠在得克薩斯州和新澤西州的主要設(shè)施的大型燃料生產(chǎn)裝置也存在問題，使它們無法充分實(shí)現(xiàn)潛在利潤。

根據(jù)煉油情報(bào)公司IIR Energy的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，2023年6月，計(jì)劃外停產(chǎn)平均接近55萬桶/天，而2022年6月接近29萬桶/天。

按產(chǎn)能計(jì)算為美國第二大煉油商Valero Energy周四將公布業(yè)績，根據(jù)Refinitiv收集的17位分析師的平均預(yù)估，該公司每股獲利將下滑逾一半至5.07美元，上年同期為11.36美元。

根據(jù)Refinitiv的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，美國最大的煉油商馬拉松石油公司預(yù)計(jì)每股利潤為4.60美元，而一年前為10.61美元，而Phillips 66的每股利潤為3.58美元，而一年前為6.77美元。兩家公司都計(jì)劃于8月初公布財(cái)報(bào)。

本月早些時(shí)候，埃克森美孚表示，煉油利潤率也使其汽油和柴油業(yè)務(wù)的經(jīng)營業(yè)績減少了21億美元。

根據(jù)Refinitiv的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，未來煉油商將受益于持續(xù)的高裂解價(jià)差，該價(jià)差目前徘徊在每桶37.50美元左右。裂解價(jià)差是煉油利潤率的一個(gè)指標(biāo)。

但Gabelman表示，由于亞洲和中東的新煉油產(chǎn)能投產(chǎn)，以及卡車和貨運(yùn)市場放緩導(dǎo)致柴油需求疲軟，煉油商可能面臨挑戰(zhàn)。并補(bǔ)充道，“對前景沒有太多信心”。

郝芬 譯自 烴加工網(wǎng)

原文如下：

US. fuel maker profits to fall from last year's records

U.S. refining profits are expected to fall from last year's records but remain strong as domestic refining outages and increased foreign competition pose challenges.

Refiners have come off a wave of favorable pricing and strong demand after pandemic-era plant closings and the war boosted margins. Slowing economic activity and an increase in global refining capacity has brought the market down from last year's highs.

"Earnings will not be weak by any stretch, but should be more normal," said TD Cowen analyst Jason Gabelman.

Oil production cuts from OPEC+ in the second quarter took heavy, sour barrels from the market that US refiners buy cheaply to make a higher profit off fuel sales.

A winter shortage of distillate fuels that allowed refiners to fetch a much higher price for jet fuel compared with diesel earlier in the year has also eased. Crude differentials and jet premiums to diesel are back near historical levels, Gabelman said.

Refiners such as Marathon and Phillips 66 also had problems with large fuel producing units in major facilities in Texas and New Jersey, preventing them from fully realizing potential profits.

Unplanned outages averaged near 550,000 bpd in June, 2023, compared to near 290,000 bpd in June 2022, according to data from refining intelligence firm IIR Energy.

Valero Energy, the second-largest U.S. refiner by capacity, kicks off earnings on Thursday with per share profit expected to fall by more than half at $5.07, based on the mean estimate of 17 analysts compiled by Refinitiv, compared to a whopping $11.36 per share a year ago.

Top U.S. refiner by volume Marathon Petroleum is forecast to show a per share profit of $4.60 compared to $10.61 a year ago, while Phillips 66 could deliver a $3.58 per share, compared to $6.77 a year ago, according to Refinitiv. Both are scheduled to report in early August.

Earlier this month, Exxon signaled that refining margins also reduced operating results at its gasoline and diesel business by $2.1 B.

Going forward, refiners should benefit from a sustained, high crack spread - a proxy for refining margins - which is hovering around $37.50 per barrel, Refinitiv data showed.

But refiners could face challenges with new refining capacity coming online in Asia and the Middle East and weaker demand for diesel due to slowing in trucking and freight markets, Gabelman said.

"There's not a lot of conviction in the outlook," he added.