沙特宣布將自愿減產(chǎn)100萬(wàn)桶/天的協(xié)議延長(zhǎng)至8月

非歐佩克成員國(guó)產(chǎn)量的增加阻礙了歐佩克+提振原油價(jià)格的努力

據(jù)油價(jià)網(wǎng)7月10日?qǐng)?bào)道，阿聯(lián)酋宣布，它不會(huì)加入沙特自愿減產(chǎn)的行列，并稱沙特的減產(chǎn)足以平衡市場(chǎng)。考慮到阿聯(lián)酋過(guò)去曾稱，應(yīng)該允許它的產(chǎn)量超過(guò)目前的歐佩克配額，這一點(diǎn)也不奇怪。阿聯(lián)酋計(jì)劃到2027年將其原油產(chǎn)能提高到500萬(wàn)桶/天，遠(yuǎn)高于歐佩克300萬(wàn)桶/天的配額。

一周前，沙特連續(xù)第二個(gè)月將自愿減產(chǎn)100萬(wàn)桶/天的協(xié)議再延長(zhǎng)一個(gè)月至8月。此次減產(chǎn)將使沙特的日產(chǎn)量降至900萬(wàn)桶，為幾年來(lái)的最低水平。為了提振疲軟的油價(jià)，沙特一直在單兵作戰(zhàn)犧牲銷(xiāo)量，但由于包括美國(guó)在內(nèi)的非歐佩克產(chǎn)油國(guó)的供應(yīng)增加，迄今為止收效甚微。

EIA報(bào)告稱，今年美國(guó)原油產(chǎn)量有望創(chuàng)下歷史最高水平，到4月份為止，原油產(chǎn)量同比增長(zhǎng)9%。EIA預(yù)測(cè)，今年美國(guó)的石油總產(chǎn)量將達(dá)到1261萬(wàn)桶/天，高于2019年創(chuàng)下的1232萬(wàn)桶/天，并輕松超過(guò)去年的1189萬(wàn)桶/天。盡管歐佩克及其盟友已宣布減產(chǎn)約占2022年產(chǎn)量的6%，但雷斯塔能源估計(jì)，歐佩克以外國(guó)家的產(chǎn)量約占減產(chǎn)量的三分之二，這使歐佩克提振油價(jià)的努力受挫。

盡管原油價(jià)格較低，但效率提高和技術(shù)更新使美國(guó)石油公司的利潤(rùn)更高。據(jù)摩根大通估計(jì)，自2014年以來(lái)，美國(guó)頁(yè)巖油的鉆井和水力壓裂成本下降了36%。目前石油巨頭埃克森美孚押注頁(yè)巖油生產(chǎn)商可以通過(guò)采用新式的水力壓裂技術(shù)將現(xiàn)有產(chǎn)量提高一倍。

“有很多石油被留在地下。”埃克森美孚首席執(zhí)行官達(dá)倫·伍茲周四在伯恩斯坦戰(zhàn)略決策會(huì)議上表示，“水力壓裂法已經(jīng)存在了很長(zhǎng)時(shí)間，但水力壓裂法的實(shí)際作用并沒(méi)有得到很好的理解。”伍茲透露，埃克森美孚目前正在兩個(gè)具體領(lǐng)域改進(jìn)水力壓裂技術(shù)。該公司正試圖沿著油井更精確地追蹤油跡，以便找出更多被石油浸透的巖石。該公司還在尋找方法，讓裂縫保持更長(zhǎng)時(shí)間，以促進(jìn)石油流動(dòng)。

壽琳玲 譯自 油價(jià)網(wǎng)

原文如下：

UAE Will Not Make Voluntary Oil Production Cuts

The UAE has announced it will not make any additional voluntary oil production cuts.

Saudi Arabia announced it will extend its voluntary 1 million bpd production cut through August.

Increasing production from non-OPEC members has frustrated OPEC+ efforts to bolster crude prices.

The United Arab Emirates has announced that it will not join Saudi Arabia in making voluntary oil production cuts, claiming that the cuts by the Saudis are enough to balance the markets.  This is hardly surprising considering that the UAE has in the past argued that it should be allowed to pump more than its current OPEC quota.  The UAE has plans to ramp up its crude production capacity to five million barrels per day (bpd) by 2027, well above OPEC’s quota of 3 mb/d.

A week ago, for the second month running, Saudi Arabia extended its voluntary 1M bbl/day oil production cut for another month, this time till August.  The reduction will take the country’s production to ~9M bbl/day, the lowest level in several years.  The Kingdom has been single-handedly sacrificing sales volume in a bid to goose weak oil prices, but has so far reaped little reward, thanks to increased supply by non-OPEC producers including the United States.

The Energy Information Administration has reported that U.S. crude oil production is on track to set a record this year, up 9% Y/Y through April.  EIA has forecast total U.S. output will hit 12.61M bbl/day in the current year, above the previous record of 12.32M bbl/day set in 2019 and easily beating last year's 11.89M bbl/day.  Although OPEC and its allies have announced cuts amounting to ~6% of 2022's production, Rystad Energy estimates output in countries outside OPEC is making up for about two-thirds of those reductions, frustrating OPEC’s efforts to goose prices.

Improved efficiency and newer technologies have made U.S. oil companies more profitable, even at lower crude prices, with J.P. Morgan estimating that the cost of drilling and fracking in the U.S. shale has dropped by 36% since 2014.  Shale giant ExxonMobil Corp. (NYSE:XOM) is now betting that shale producers can double crude output from their existing wells by employing novel fracking technologies.

“There’s just a lot of oil being left in the ground. Fracking’s been around for a really long time, but the science of fracking is not well understood,” Exxon Chief Executive Officer Darren Woods said Thursday at the Bernstein Strategic Decisions conference. Woods has revealed that Exxon is currently working on two specific areas to improve fracking. First off, the company is trying to frack more precisely along the well so that more oil-soaked rock gets drained. It’s also looking for ways to keep the fracked cracks open longer so as to boost the flow of oil.