據(jù)美國(guó)鉆井地帶網(wǎng)站2023年7月3日?qǐng)?bào)道，沙特阿拉伯將在7月份額外日減100萬桶原油產(chǎn)量，加上季節(jié)性需求走強(qiáng)，應(yīng)該有助于在今年第三季度實(shí)際收緊市場(chǎng)。

這是惠譽(yù)解決方案公司BMI的分析師們?cè)谝环菪聢?bào)告中作出的聲明。  

分析師們?cè)趫?bào)告中表示：“中東和北非(MENA)地區(qū)產(chǎn)油國(guó)在夏季傾向于減少原油出口，屆時(shí)原油產(chǎn)量將轉(zhuǎn)向國(guó)內(nèi)市場(chǎng)，以滿足國(guó)內(nèi)峰值需求。”

“這種趨勢(shì)并不局限于中東和北非地區(qū)，全球石油消費(fèi)通常在6月至9月期間上升。這在很大程度上是由于旅行增加刺激了對(duì)汽油和航空燃料的更高需求。”分析師們補(bǔ)充說。

分析師們繼續(xù)說：“空中交通仍在從疫情中復(fù)蘇，而美國(guó)的駕車季節(jié)也有了一個(gè)強(qiáng)勁的開端，這兩個(gè)因素都應(yīng)該會(huì)支撐季節(jié)性需求增長(zhǎng)趨勢(shì)。”

BMI分析師們?cè)趫?bào)告中承認(rèn)，沙特阿拉伯的額外減產(chǎn)最早可能在8月份恢復(fù)，但他們表示，“沙特阿拉伯似乎更有可能選擇將減產(chǎn)延續(xù)到7月以后的幾個(gè)月，或者交錯(cuò)增加產(chǎn)量，以避免價(jià)格再次上漲的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)”。

“從理論上講，這應(yīng)該會(huì)支持油價(jià)上漲。然而，在今年的大部分時(shí)間里，價(jià)格走勢(shì)已脫離基本面，而基本面仍相對(duì)有彈性”，分析師們?cè)趫?bào)告中表示。

分析師補(bǔ)充稱：“這在價(jià)差和布倫特原油管理資金頭寸的變化中很明顯……盡管歐佩克+對(duì)市場(chǎng)進(jìn)行了多次強(qiáng)有力的干預(yù)，但今年油價(jià)一直難以保持漲勢(shì)。”

“從上行方面看，布倫特原油似乎在70美元附近找到了底部，但反彈受到賣空者和普遍看跌的宏觀情緒的限制。”分析師們繼續(xù)說道。

劇烈漲落

在上周另一份報(bào)告中，渣打銀行分析師們表示，他們預(yù)計(jì)基本面將收緊到足以對(duì)原油價(jià)格產(chǎn)生更大影響的程度。

分析師們?cè)趫?bào)告中補(bǔ)充稱：“我們的供需模型顯示，受季節(jié)性需求波動(dòng)和中東主要產(chǎn)油國(guó)減產(chǎn)的影響，原油供應(yīng)將從4月份的每天141萬桶過剩大幅下滑至7月份每天133萬桶和8月份每天170萬桶的短缺。”

根據(jù)EIA 6月份發(fā)布的最新一期短期能源展望(STEO)報(bào)告，第三季度原油和其他液體庫存每天凈提取量預(yù)計(jì)為20萬桶，第四季度為1萬桶。STEO報(bào)告預(yù)計(jì)第二季度總庫存將日增52萬桶。

STEO報(bào)告表示，第二季度石油和其他液體產(chǎn)品的日總產(chǎn)量預(yù)計(jì)將達(dá)到1.0133億桶，第三季度達(dá)到1.0140億桶，第四季度達(dá)到1.0169億桶。STEO報(bào)告預(yù)計(jì)第二季度的石油和其他液體日總消費(fèi)量為1.0081億桶，第三季度為1.016億桶，第四季度為1.0169億桶。

在5月份發(fā)布的上一份STEO報(bào)告中，EIA預(yù)計(jì)第二季度總庫存日增29萬桶，第四季度日增4萬桶。在5月份的STEO報(bào)告中，預(yù)計(jì)第三季度的總庫存沒有變化。

沙特減產(chǎn)

瑞典北歐斯安銀行 (SEB)首席商品分析師Bjarne Schieldrop在6月份一份聲明中強(qiáng)調(diào)，沙特阿拉伯每天額外減產(chǎn)100萬桶原油產(chǎn)量“對(duì)市場(chǎng)來說是個(gè)大驚喜”。

Schieldrop在聲明中表示：“額外的減產(chǎn)將確保油價(jià)不會(huì)跌破每桶70美元，防止庫存上升，并為7月4日至6日的下一次歐佩克+會(huì)議奠定良好的戰(zhàn)術(shù)談判基礎(chǔ)。”

他補(bǔ)充說：“如果沒有必要每天削減100萬桶原油產(chǎn)量，那么沙特阿拉伯將在8月份解除，如果確實(shí)需要，那么沙特阿拉伯可以強(qiáng)力支持歐佩克+從8月份開始聯(lián)合減產(chǎn)。”

挪威雷斯塔能源公司高級(jí)副總裁喬治·利昂表示，“沙特7月份之后減產(chǎn)的純粹可能性將限制今年剩余時(shí)間內(nèi)的原油價(jià)格下行壓力”。

在最新的報(bào)告中利昂強(qiáng)調(diào)說，沙特阿拉伯7月份的原油日產(chǎn)量將降至略低于900萬桶，這是沙特阿拉伯原油產(chǎn)量自2021年6月以來的最低水平。

李峻 譯自 美國(guó)鉆井地帶網(wǎng)站

原文如下：

Analysts Say These Factors Should Help Physically Tighten Market in Q3

An additional one million barrel per day unilateral cut by Saudi Arabia, set to take effect in July, coupled with seasonally stronger demand, should help to physically tighten the market in the third quarter.

That’s according to analysts at BMI, a Fitch Solutions company, who made the statement in a new report sent to Rigzone.

“Middle East and North Africa (MENA) producers tend to export less crude during their summer season, when crude production is diverted to the domestic market, to meet peaking demand,” the analysts stated in the report.

“This trend is not limited to MENA, with global oil consumption typically rising between June and September. Much of this is driven by higher demand for gasoline and jet fuel, spurred by increased travel,” the analysts added.

“Air traffic is still recovering from the pandemic, while the U.S. driving is off to a strong start, both of which should bolster seasonal trends,” the analysts continued.

In the report, the BMI analysts conceded that the barrels from Saudi Arabia’s additional cut could be returned as early as August but stated that “it seems more likely that the kingdom will opt for either a rollover into subsequent months, or a staggered increase in production, so as not to risk a relapse in prices”.

“In theory, this should support gains in the oil price. However, price action over much of 2023 has been detached from the fundamentals, which remain relatively resilient,” the analysts said in the report.

“This is evident in the shifts seen in terms spreads and in managed money positioning in Brent … prices have struggled to hold gains this year, despite repeated and robust market interventions made by OPEC+,” the analysts added.

“On the upside, Brent appears to have found a floor around the low $70s, but rallies have been capped by short sellers and generally bearish macro sentiment,” the analysts continued.

Sharp Swing

In a separate report sent to Rigzone last week, analysts at Standard Chartered said they expect fundamentals to tighten enough to exert a greater pull on prices.

“Our supply-demand model shows a sharp swing from a 1.41 million barrel per day surplus in April to deficits of 1.33 million barrels per day in July and 1.70 million barrels per day in August helped by seasonal demand swings and output cuts by key Middle East producers,” the analysts added in that report.

In the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) latest short term energy outlook (STEO), which was released in June, total crude oil and other liquids inventory net withdrawals were projected to come in at 0.20 million barrels per day in the third quarter and 0.01 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter. The STEO projects a total stock build of 0.52 million barrels per day in the second quarter.

Total petroleum and other liquids production is expected to come in at 101.33 million barrels per day in the second quarter, 101.40 million barrels per day in the third quarter, and 101.69 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter, the STEO showed. Total petroleum and other liquids consumption is projected in the STEO to come in at 100.81 million barrels per day in the second quarter, 101.60 million barrels per day in the third quarter, and 101.69 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter.

In its previous STEO, which was released in May, the EIA projected a total stock build of 0.29 million barrels per day in the second quarter and 0.04 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter. A total stock draw of 0.00 million barrels per day was expected in the third quarter in the May STEO.

Saudi Cut

In a statement sent to Rigzone last month, Bjarne Schieldrop, the Chief Commodity Analyst at Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (SEB), highlighted that Saudi Arabia’s additional one million barrel per day cut was a “big surprise to the market”.

“The additional cut will make sure the oil price won't fall below $70 per barrel, prevent inventories from rising, and make for a great tactical negotiation setup for the next OPEC+ meeting on July 4-6,” Schieldrop said in the statement.

“If the one million barrel per day July cut is unnecessary, then it will be unwound for August and if it indeed was needed then Saudi Arabia can strong-arm rest of OPEC+ to make a combined cut from August,” he added.

In a market update sent to Rigzone in June, Rystad Energy Senior Vice President Jorge Leon said, “the pure possibility of the Saudi production cut extending beyond July will limit downside price pressure for the rest of 2023”.

In the update, Leon highlighted that Saudi crude production in July would drop to just below nine million barrels per day, which he noted is the country’s lowest level since June 2021.