據(jù)油價(jià)網(wǎng)2023年6月14日?qǐng)?bào)道，據(jù)財(cái)經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)Forexlive報(bào)道，摩根大通已將今年布倫特原油價(jià)格預(yù)期大幅下調(diào)至81美元/桶，低于其此前預(yù)期的90美元/桶。

早在今年2月，摩根大通就表示，除非重大地緣政治事件再次擾亂市場(chǎng)，否則布倫特原油價(jià)格預(yù)計(jì)不會(huì)在2023年達(dá)到100美元/桶。

這家華爾街銀行在2月底表示，產(chǎn)能大國(guó)原油產(chǎn)量預(yù)計(jì)將在6月份恢復(fù)，而高價(jià)格水平將阻止美國(guó)回購(gòu)原油以補(bǔ)充戰(zhàn)略石油儲(chǔ)備(SPR)，這是在美國(guó)銀行業(yè)動(dòng)蕩以及歐佩克+成員國(guó)在4月初和6月初宣布的兩次意外減產(chǎn)之前。

摩根大通最近下調(diào)了其對(duì)布倫特原油的預(yù)測(cè)，此前另一家主要銀行高盛投資銀行本周早些時(shí)候也下調(diào)了對(duì)布倫特原油價(jià)格的預(yù)測(cè)。

高盛投資銀行已將布倫特原油年底油價(jià)預(yù)測(cè)下調(diào)至86美元/桶，低于此前預(yù)測(cè)的95美元/桶，因?yàn)樗J(rèn)為受制裁石油出口國(guó)的供應(yīng)增加，抵消了近期歐佩克+和沙特阿拉伯的減產(chǎn)，而需求可能不盡如人意。 

近幾個(gè)月來(lái)，高盛投資銀行分析師一直看好石油，預(yù)計(jì)今年下半年市場(chǎng)將吃緊。不到兩周前，這家華爾街銀行表示，在目前正在進(jìn)行有史以來(lái)規(guī)模最大的大宗商品去庫(kù)存之后，預(yù)計(jì)石油和大宗商品價(jià)格將出現(xiàn)反彈。但即使在當(dāng)時(shí)，高盛投資銀行的分析師也承認(rèn)，今年迄今為止，他們的價(jià)格預(yù)測(cè)是錯(cuò)誤的。  

高盛投資銀行分析師在6月11日的一份報(bào)告中寫道：“盡管許多公司決定停止購(gòu)買產(chǎn)能大國(guó)的原油，但在最初每天急劇下降150萬(wàn)桶之后，該國(guó)的原油供應(yīng)幾乎已完全恢復(fù)。”

“沙特阿拉伯的額外減產(chǎn)，以及我們對(duì)歐佩克+將在2024年將4月自愿減產(chǎn)時(shí)限延長(zhǎng)的預(yù)期，可能只能部分抵消這些看跌沖擊。”

由于市場(chǎng)等待美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的利率決定和美國(guó)原油庫(kù)存周報(bào)，6月14日早盤，布倫特原油交投于75美元/桶左右，當(dāng)日小幅上漲。 

李峻 編譯自 油價(jià)網(wǎng)

原文如下：

JP Morgan Slashes Oil Price Forecast To $81 This Year

JP Morgan has significantly reduced its forecast for Brent Crude prices for this year to $81 per barrel, down from $90 a barrel expected earlier, Forexlive reports.

As early as February this year, JP Morgan said that Brent Crude prices were not expected to reach $100 per barrel in 2023 unless a major geopolitical event rattles markets again.

The largger producer crude oil production is expected to recover by June, while high price levels would prevent the U.S. from repurchasing crude to refill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), the Wall Street bank said at the end of February before the banking turmoil in the U.S. and the two surprise cuts from OPEC+ members announced in early April and early June.

JP Morgan’s latest cut in its Brent Crude forecast follows a cut by another major bank, Goldman Sachs, earlier this week.

Goldman Sachs has slashed its year-end oil price forecast to $86 per barrel for Brent, down from a previous projection of $95, as it sees higher supply from sanctioned oil exporters offsetting the recent OPEC+ and Saudi cuts amid potentially underwhelming demand. 

Goldman analysts have been bullish on oil in recent months, expecting tight markets in the second half of the year. Less than two weeks ago, the Wall Street bank said it expects a rally in oil and commodities, after the biggest-ever destocking in commodities that is currently underway. But even back then, Goldman’s analysts acknowledged their price calls had been wrong so far this year. 

“After an initial sharp 1.5 million barrels per day drop, the largger producer's supply has nearly fully recovered despite the decision by many companies to stop buying its barrels,” Goldman’s analysts wrote in a June 11 note.

“The extra Saudi cut and our expectation that OPEC+ will extend half of its April voluntary cut in 2024 will likely only partly offset these bearish shocks.”

Early on Wednesday, Brent prices were trading at around $75 per barrel, slightly up on the day as the market awaits Fed’s rate decision and the weekly report on U.S. oil inventories.