巴西國家石油、天然氣和生物燃料局(ANP)報告稱，巴西的石油產量正在穩步增加，預計巴西將成為世界第四大石油生產國

巴西的巨大石油儲量，特別是鹽下石油儲量，再加上勘探和鉆井活動的增加，凸顯了巴西大幅擴大石油產量的潛力

盡管擔心政府干預和稅收，但法國道達爾能源和挪威能源巨頭Equinor等外國公司仍在巴西大舉投資，表明巴西在全球石油行業的強勢地位

據油價網2023年6月12日報道，近二十年來，南美洲最大的經濟體巴西從2006年首次在海上超深水鹽下巖層發現的大規模石油繁榮中獲得了巨大的經濟收益。后來巴西國家石油公司(巴西國油/Petrobras)背負了巨額債務，幾乎被迫宣布破產，這一石油繁榮幾乎崩潰。從那時起，工業改革和合理化再加上高油價，重振了巴西正在進行的大規模化石燃料熱潮。有跡象表明，巴西正在成為全球第四大石油生產國，這將給巴西經濟帶來巨大的好處。

巴西碳氫化合物監管機構ANP公布的數據顯示，今年4月，巴西平均每天生產310萬桶石油。這個數字比前一個月增加近1%，比去年同期增加5%。今年4月巴西的碳氫化合物日總產量略高于400萬桶油當量，比3月份增加1.1%，比去年同期增加4.4%。這些數字代表了在今年3月暴跌之后的溫和復蘇。這一增加表明巴西有潛力成為世界上最大的石油生產國，特別是預計到今年巴西的石油日產量將增加30萬桶，到今年年底，石油日產量將達到340萬桶。

去年，巴西的石油產量在全球排名第九，超過科威特，石油平均日產量略高于300萬桶。假設這個拉丁美洲最大經濟體將成為世界第四大石油生產國，在這種情況下，巴西將需要每天開采出450多萬桶石油，以超過目前占據第一的加拿大。巴西能源部預計，到2029年前，巴西的石油日產量將達到540萬桶，比去年的300萬桶日產量高出80%。巴西碳氫化合物產量的持續逐年增加表明，巴西確實有潛力擴大石油產量，成為全球第四大石油生產國。

支持這些計劃的另一個關鍵因素是巴西豐富的碳氫化合物儲量。根據ANP公布的數據，截至去年年底，這個拉丁美洲最大的石油生產國已探明石油儲量總計149億桶，其中77%屬于鹽下石油儲量。還有219億桶探明和概算儲量和270億桶探明、概算和可能儲量。這表明巴西擁有相當大的碳氫化合物潛力和支持石油產量大幅增加所需的儲量。隨著勘探和開發鉆井活動的增加，這些儲量將繼續增加，貝克休斯公司公布的國際在用鉆機數量顯示，到今年5月底，巴西在用鉆機數增加17部，而去年同期為11部。

石油產量的巨大飛躍將受到鹽下石油產量擴大的推動，巴西能源部認為，巴西鹽下石油產量最終將占巴西碳氫化合物總產量的80%，而目前這個數字約為77%。要實現這一目標，必須大幅增加產量，而這只有在能源投資和鉆井活動大幅擴大的情況下才能實現。巴西能源部希望通過一項名為Potencializa勘探和生產計劃來刺激這一增長趨勢，這個計劃的主要原則是鼓勵對前沿、商業邊際和成熟石油盆地進行投資。此外，巴西還在努力擴大陸上鉆井的支出和活動，路透社指出，從現在到2029年，巴西中小型能源公司計劃在陸上鉆井業務上投資77億美元。

盡管巴國油將是如此大規模增產的關鍵推手，該公司承諾在5年內投資780億美元，但要實現這一目標，還需要外國能源巨頭的大量投資和技術注入。這樣做的原因很簡單，碳氫化合物產量的大幅增加必須得到可采儲量穩步增加和提高原油采收率技術的部署支持。其中包括小型能源公司計劃到2029年前在巴西陸上油田投資77億美元，這將擴大石油儲量和產量。

今年1月，法國超級能源巨頭道達爾能源批準了巴西桑托斯盆地Lapa southwest海上石油項目10億美元的最終投資決定(FID)。道達爾能源公司是這個項目的運營商，持有45%的股份，其合作伙伴殼牌公司和另外一家公司分別持有30%和25%的股份。這個項目包括開發三口井，連接到Lapa油田浮式產油、儲油和卸油 （FPSO）設施，該FPSO設施自2016年以來一直在Lapa油田西北部運營。預計在2025年投產后，這個FPSO設施將每天泵送2.5萬桶石油，將油田日總產量提高到6萬桶。

道達爾能源公司表示，這個項目與公司現有的巴西資產非常契合，將為公司的鹽下石油生產提供關鍵的增長杠桿。道達爾能源公司勘探和生產高級副總裁David Mendelson表示：“這一最新發展是道達爾能源公司在巴西的一個重要里程碑，它將增加其在桑托斯鹽下盆地的運營產量，這是公司的一個關鍵增長區域。”他接著說：“憑借其高效的工程方法和與現有設施的協同作用，這個項目體現了道達爾能源公司專注于低成本、低排放資產的戰略。”

今年5月底，道達爾能源公司及其合作伙伴巴國油、卡塔爾能源公司和馬來西亞國家石油公司共同簽署了Agua Marinha海上區塊的產量分成合同。Agua Marinha區塊位于Marlim Sul鹽下油田南部高產的坎波斯盆地，于去年12月開發合同被授予道達爾能源公司。據信，這個區塊有可能復制巴國油在2017年Marlim Sul鹽下石油發現的成功。道達爾能源公司勘探高級副總裁表示：“Agua Marinha區塊的產量分成合同簽署擴大了我們與三個戰略合作伙伴在坎波斯盆地鹽下這一充滿希望地區的影響力，我們期待著探索這個區塊并鉆探Touro遠景構造。”

今年5月初，挪威能源巨頭Equinor宣布，它與合作伙伴馬來西亞國家石油公司等一起批準了FID，以繼續在巴西海上進行價值90億美元的B-M-C-33項目的開發。此次作業包括3個鹽下天然氣和凝析油發現，可采儲量為10億桶油當量。預計在2028年啟動后，這個項目每天將開采出5.65億立方英尺天然氣，其中估計88%將用于出口。運營方Equinor持有35%的開采權益，其余30%由馬來西亞國家石油公司持有。

這些事件表明，巴西的海上投資仍然強勁。如前所述，外國能源巨頭繼續在巴西批準數十億美元的項目，這將大大提高產量。即使巴國油的脫碳計劃也不會對巴西石油生產和出口的增加產生什么影響，巴國油預計到2027年前其石油產量將增加19%。由于這些原因，巴西能源部設定的到2029年前每天開采出540萬桶石油的宏偉目標似乎是可以實現的。

李峻 編譯自 油價網

原文如下：

Brazil Gears Up To Become Fourth Largest Oil Producer

·     Brazil's National Agency of Petroleum, Natural Gas and Biofuels (ANP) reports that the country's oil production is steadily increasing, projecting the country to become the world's fourth largest oil producer.

·     The country's large reserves, particularly pre-salt reserves, coupled with a rise in exploration and drilling activities, underscore the potential for significant production expansion.

·     Despite concerns over government intervention and taxation, foreign energy companies like TotalEnergies and Equinor continue to invest heavily in Brazil, signalling the country's strong position in the global oil industry.

For nearly two decades, South America’s largest economy Brazil has been reaping a tremendous economic windfall from a massive oil boom that kicked off with the first offshore ultra deep-water pre-salt discovery in 2006. The boom nearly collapsed saw national oil company Petrobras laden with so much debt it was almost forced to declare bankruptcy. Since then, industry reforms and rationalization coupled with higher oil prices had reinvigorated the massive fossil fuel boom underway in Brazil, although it nearly faltered for a brief moment . There are indications that Brazil, regardless of the naysayers, is on track to become the world’s fourth-largest oil producer, which will be a tremendous boon for the economy.

Data from Brazil’s hydrocarbon regulator, the National Agency of Petroleum, Natural Gas and Biofuels (ANP – Portuguese initials), shows that for April 2023, the country pumped an average of 3.1 million barrels of oil per day. That number is almost 1% higher than a month earlier and 5% greater year over year. Total hydrocarbon output for April 2023 amounted to just over 4 million barrels of oil equivalent per day which was 1.1% higher month over month and 4.4% greater than a year earlier. Those numbers represent a modest recovery after a March 2023 slump. That growth indicates Brazil possesses the potential to become the world’s largest oil producer, especially when it is anticipated the country 2023 will add 300,000 barrels per day, taking production to 3.4 million barrels daily by the end of the year. 

During 2022, Brazil was ranked ninth globally by oil production, ahead of Kuwait, lifting an average of just over 3 million barrels per day. Suppose Latin America’s largest economy is to become the world’s fourth-largest oil producer. In that case, it will need to be pumping more than 4.5 million barrels of crude oil per day so as to overtake Canada, which currently holds that spot. Brazil’s energy ministry expects the country will be pumping 5.4 million barrels daily by 2029, which is a whopping 80% higher than the 3 million barrels of oil lifted daily during 2022. Consistent year-over-year growth in hydrocarbon production indicates that Brazil indeed possesses the potential to expand production and become the world’s fourth-largest oil producer. 

Another key aspect that will support those plans is Brazil’s copious hydrocarbon reserves. According to the ANP, at the end of 2022, Latin America’s largest oil producer held proven or 1P petroleum reserves totaling 14.9 billion barrels, of which 77% were categorized as pre-salt. There are also 21.9 billion barrels of proven and possible or 2P reserves and 27 billion barrels of 3P reserves, known as proven possible and probable reserves. This illustrates that Brazil possesses considerable hydrocarbon potential and the reserves required to support a significant increase in oil production. Those reserves will keep growing as exploration and development drilling gains momentum, with the Baker Hughes International Rig Count showing 17 active rigs at the end of May 2023 compared to 11 a year earlier.

Such a massive leap in oil output will be driven by expanding pre-salt oil production, which Brazil’s energy ministry believes will eventually be responsible for 80% of the country’s hydrocarbon output compared to around 77% at this time. For that to occur, there must be a significant increase in production which can only occur if energy investment and drilling expand substantially. The energy ministry hopes to stimulate this through a plan called the Potencializa E&P programme, the main tenets of which are to encourage investment in frontier, commercially marginal and mature oil basins. There is also a push to expand spending and activity on onshore drilling in Brazil, with news agency Reuters pointing out that small to medium-sized energy companies planning to invest $7.7 billion in onshore operations between now and 2029.

While Brazil’s national oil company Petrobras will be the key driver of such a massive expansion of production volumes, committing to spending $78 billion over five years, it will take considerable investment and injections of technology from foreign energy majors to achieve that goal. The reasons for this are simple, such a significant expansion of hydrocarbon output must be supported by a solid increase in exploitable reserves and the deployment of enhanced recovery techniques. This includes plans by smaller energy companies to invest $7.7 billion in onshore oilfields in Brazil by 2029, which will broaden petroleum reserves and production.

In January 2023, French supermajor TotalEnergies approved the $1 billion final investment decision, or FID, for Lapa South-west offshore oil project in the Santo Basin, Brazil. TotalEnergies is the operator of the operation, holding a 45% working interest, with partners Shell controlling 30% and Repsol Sinopec the remaining 25%. The project consists of developing three wells to be connected to the Lapa FPSO, which has been operating in the North-west of the Lapa field since 2016. Upon start-up, which is anticipated for 2025, the facility will pump 25,000 barrels of oil per day, lifting overall field production to 60,000 barrels daily. 

According to TotalEnergies, the project is a natural fit for its existing Brazilian assets and will boost a key growth lever for the company's pre-salt oil production. TotalEnergies Exploration and Production Senior Vice President David Mendelson stated: “This latest development is an important milestone for TotalEnergies in Brazil that will increase its operated production in the pre-salt Santos Basin, a key growth area for the Company." He then went on to say: “With its efficient engineering approach and synergies with existing facilities, this project illustrates TotalEnergies’ strategy of focusing on low cost, low emissions assets.”

In late-May 2023, TotalEnergies, which holds a 39% interest, and its partners, Petrobras with 30% and QatarEnergy as well as PETRonAS with a 20% interest each, signed a production sharing contract for the offshore Agua Marinha Block. The block is located in the prolific Campos Basin south of the pre-salt Marlim Sul oilfield and was awarded to TotalEnergies in December 2022. It is believed that the block has the potential to mirror Petrobras’ success with the 2017 Marlim Sul pre-salt oil discovery. TotalEnergies Senior Vice President Exploration said: “The signature of the PSC for Agua Marinha expands our presence in this promising area of the pre-salt Campos Basin alongside our three strategic partners, and we are looking forward looking to exploring the block and drilling the Touro prospect.”  

In early May 2023, Norwegian energy supermajor Equinor announced that it, along with partners Petrobras had approved the FID to proceed with the $9 billion development of the B-M-C-33 project in offshore Brazil. The operation covers three pre-salt natural gas and condensate discoveries with recoverable reserves of one billion barrels of oil equivalent. On start-up, which is anticipated to occur in 2028, the operation will pump 565 million cubic feet of natural gas per day, of which, an estimated 88% will be exported. Equinor, which is the operator, holds a 35% working interest, with the remaining 30% held by Petrobras.

These events demonstrate that the investment in offshore Brazil remains strong， Indeed, while he irked energy majors with the March 2023 introduction of a 9.2% levy on oil exports for three months. As discussed, foreign energy supermajors are continuing to approve billion-dollar projects in the country, which will significantly boost production. Even Petrobras’ plans to decarbonize operations will have little impact on growing Brazil’s oil production and exports, with the company expecting its oil production to expand by 19% by 2027. For these reasons, the ambitious target set by Brazil’s energy ministry to be pumping 5.4 million barrels per day by 2029 appears achievable.