阿根廷蓬勃發展的頁巖探區瓦卡姆爾塔遠景區的原油產量可能在未來幾年激增，原油日產量到2030年結束前將達到100萬桶

缺乏運輸能力和鉆機可用性可能會抑制阿根廷的原油產量增長

截至今年2月，瓦卡姆爾塔頁巖遠景區的原油日總產量達到29.1萬桶，年增7.6萬桶

據油價網2023年5月31日報道，阿根廷瓦卡姆爾塔頁巖遠景區的原油日產量在未來幾年可能會激增，并在本十年結束前達到100萬桶，但前提是開采能力和可用鉆機數量不會限制產量增長。挪威著名能源研究和商業情報公司雷斯塔能源公司（Rystad Energy）的模型顯示，如果原油生產相對暢通，該遠景區原油日產量可能從今年2月的29.1萬桶增加到2030年下半年的100多萬桶。

預測的增長可能會提升瓦卡姆爾塔頁巖遠景區的地位，使其與美國兩個世界級頁巖盆地巴肯盆地或鷹福特盆地等開發項目一樣，成為頁巖油生產的主要來源。它還將幫助阿根廷內烏肯地區成為原油凈出口地區，到2030年前可能為該地區貢獻200億美元的總收入。原油出口可能會流向南美鄰國巴西、智利和秘魯，以及美國和歐洲。

不過，阿根廷的原油生產仍存在一些重大問題，這可能會改變阿根廷原油產量長期增長前景。外銷產能限制依然存在，可用鉆機數量仍然令人擔憂。對于瓦卡姆爾塔頁巖盆地的運營商來說，學習曲線非常陡峭，他們需要繼續保持這一趨勢，以最大限度地提高生產潛力。如果所有行業參與者共同努力，在這些限制變得至關重要之前解決這些問題，那么阿根廷的原油日產量可能很快就會超過100萬桶。

雷斯塔能源頁巖研究主管Alexandre Ramos Peon表示：“在經歷了十多年的原油產量下降之后，瓦卡姆爾塔頁巖遠景區可能是阿根廷未來能源經濟的關鍵。盡管面臨重大挑戰，但達到重要的日產100萬桶原油的門檻將改變阿根廷的能源敘事，減少對進口的依賴，并成為地區和全球石油市場的關鍵參與者。”

李峻 編譯自 油價網

原文如下：

Argentina's Vaca Muerta Shale Play Could Produce 1 Million Bpd In 2030

·     Crude oil production from Argentina’s burgeoning shale patch, Vaca Muerta, could surge in the coming years and top 1 million barrels per day by the end of the decade.

·     Lack of takeaway capacity and rig availability could curb production growth.

·     As of February 20223, Vaca Muerta’s gross oil production reached 291,000 bpd, an annual addition of 76,000 bpd.

Crude oil production from Argentina’s burgeoning shale patch, Vaca Muerta, could surge in the coming years and top 1 million barrels per day (bpd) by the end of the decade – but only if takeaway capacity and rig availability do not limit growth. Rystad Energy’s modeling shows that if production is relatively unimpeded, oil output could realistically grow from 291,000 bpd in February 2023 to more than 1 million bpd in the second half of 2030.

The forecast growth could lift Vaca Muerta’s profile and position it as a leading source of shale production, alongside the likes of the Bakken or Eagle Ford developments, two of the US’ world-class shale basins. It would also help the Neuquen region become a net oil exporter, potentially contributing $20 billion in total revenue by 2030. Crude exports could be making their way to South American neighbors Brazil, Chile and Peru, as well as the US and Europe.

Still, big question marks remain, which could potentially alter our long-term growth outlook. Takeaway capacity constraints linger, and rig availability remains an ongoing concern. The learning curve for operators in the basin has been steep, and they will need to continue this trend to maximize their production potential. If all industry participants work together to address these constraints before they become critical, output could top 1 million bpd sooner rather than later. 

“Vaca Muerta could hold the key to Argentina’s future energy economy following more than a decade of oil production declines. While major challenges lie ahead, reaching the important 1 million barrels per day threshold would change the country’s narrative, reduce its reliance on imports and become a key regional and global oil market player,” says Alexandre Ramos Peon, head of shale research at Rystad Energy.