巴克萊銀行：全球制造業(yè)活動放緩可能導致原油價格進一步下行

巴克萊銀行預計，從2023年第四季度到2024年第四季度，產(chǎn)能大國液體日產(chǎn)量將減少70萬桶

巴克萊銀行也沒有沖銷重新開放對原油需求的潛在提振

據(jù)油價網(wǎng)2023年1月10日報道，路透社報道說，巴克萊銀行周二警告稱，“我們可能會看到原油價格每桶下跌15至25美元的風險，而目前的預測是每桶98美元。”

在最近的一份報告中，巴克萊銀行將這種下行風險與全球制造業(yè)活動可能繼續(xù)放緩聯(lián)系起來。“考慮到宏觀經(jīng)濟背景的挑戰(zhàn)，（我們）強調(diào)，如果全球制造業(yè)活動惡化，重蹈2008至2009年的覆轍，我們的預估原油價格每桶將下跌15至25美元。”巴克萊銀行稱，“這意味著需求預估將日降100萬至200萬桶。”

巴克萊銀行表示，該行對油價仍持“建設(shè)性”態(tài)度，指出這是因為美國產(chǎn)量增長放緩，歐佩克+的市場反應，以及制裁導致產(chǎn)能大國原油供應退出市場。不過，巴克萊銀行表示，“石油的周期性需求趨勢正在下行” 。

巴克萊銀行預計，從2023年第四季度到2024年第四季度，產(chǎn)能大國的液體日產(chǎn)量將減少70萬桶。

與此同時，美國能源信息署（EIA）也發(fā)布了新的2023年布倫特原油預測。EIA周二發(fā)布的最新一期《短期能源展望》報告顯示，EIA預計今年布倫特原油的平均價格將為每桶83.10美元，低于去年的每桶100.94美元。

巴克萊銀行在強調(diào)潛在下行風險的同時，也沒有沖銷重新開放對原油需求的潛在提振。

巴克萊銀行去年10月將2022年和2023年的布倫特原油價格預測分別下調(diào)至每桶100美元和98美元，原因是預計全球石油需求增長將放緩——此前在8月，巴克萊銀行將這兩年的原油價格預測下調(diào)至每桶103美元。

李峻 編譯自 油價網(wǎng)

原文如下：

Barclays Sees $15-$25 Barrel Downside If Manufacturing Activity Slows

·     Barclays: slowdown in global manufacturing activity could lead to increased downside for crude prices.

·     Barclays sees an estimated decline in the third producer's liquids output of 700,000 bpd from Q4 2023 to Q4 2024.

·     Barclays also isn’t writing off a potential boost in demand from reopening.

Barclays cautioned on Tuesday that we could see a $15-$25 barrel downside risk for crude oil prices compared to its current forecast of $98 per barrel, according to Reuters.

In a recent note, Barclays linked that downside risk to a possible continued slowdown in global manufacturing activity. “Given the challenging macroeconomic backdrop (we) highlight $15-25/barrel of downside to our forecast if the slump in global manufacturing activity worsens similar to the 2008-09 episode,” Barclays said, adding that it “would imply 1-2 million barrels per day downside to our demand estimates.”

The bank said it remained “constructive” on oil prices, pointing to slowing U.S. output growth, market responses from OPEC+, and sanctions taking Russian crude supply off the market. Still, “the cyclical demand trends are pointing south for oil,” Barclays said.

Barclays sees an estimated decline in the third producer's liquids output of 700,000 bpd from Q4 2023 to Q4 2024.

The forecast comes as the EIA published a new 2023 Brent crude forecast as well. The Energy Information Administration estimates that the average price for Brent crude oil will be $83.10 per barrel this year—down from $100.94 per barrel last year, the latest edition of its Short Term Energy Outlook published on Tuesday shows.

While highlighting the potential downside risk, Barclays also isn’t writing off a potential boost in demand from reopening.

Barclays lowered its Brent crude oil price forecast for 2022 and 2023 last October to $100 and $98 per barrel, respectively, due to an expectation of slowing growth in oil demand—this followed a previous downward revision in August to $103 per barrel both years.