高盛投資公司認為，強勁的需求增長可能會讓布倫特原油價格在2023年第四季度攀升至105美元

高盛投資公司認為，由于歐佩克+干預石油市場的能力，石油市場的下行空間有限

據油價網2023年1月10日報道，高盛投資公司表示，全球石油需求的強勁增長將推動油價今年突破100美元，布倫特原油價格到今年第四季度可能達到每桶105美元。

這家美國投資銀行在《國家報》(the National)上發表的一份報告中稱，2023年世界石油日需求將增加270萬桶，市場需求將在今年下半年重新出現赤字。

周一油價上漲4%。至少在這一天，市場參與者關注的是石油需求的光明前景，而不是發達經濟體即將出現經濟衰退的擔憂。

高盛投資公司表示，對今年需求強勁增長的預期，應能讓歐佩克+集團在2023年下半年解除去年10月宣布的減產措施。

但高盛投資銀行表示，如果需求低于預期，歐佩克+“可能會堅持去年10月份的減產，或進一步減產，因為其具有強大的定價權”。

高盛投資公司指出：“總體而言，‘歐佩克賣出期權’限制了我們看漲油價預測的下行風險。” 

去年12月中旬，高盛投資公司表示，供應短缺和對新供應的投資不足將導致2023年大宗商品迎來豐收之年。

李峻 編譯自 油價網

原文如下：

Goldman Sachs: Oil Prices To Hit $105 On Solid Demand Growth

·     Goldman Sachs believes solid demand growth could send Brent climbing to $105 by the fourth quarter of 2023.

·     Goldman Sachs believes the downside for oil markets is limited due to the ability of OPEC+ to intervene in oil markets.

Solid growth in global oil demand is set to drive oil prices to above $100 this year and Brent Crude could trade at $105 per barrel by the fourth quarter, according to Goldman Sachs.  

World oil demand is set to increase by 2.7 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2023 and the market would return to deficit in the second half of the year, the U.S. investment bank said in a note carried by The National.

Oil prices jumped by 4% on Monday. Market participants focused – at least for a day – on brighter prospects of oil demand, instead of on fears that recessions in developed economies are imminent.

Expectations of solid demand growth this year should allow the OPEC+ group to unwind in the second half of 2023 the production cut announced in October, Goldman Sachs said.

But if demand is softer than predicted, OPEC+ “could stick to its October cuts or cut production even further, given its significant pricing power,” the bank said.

In mid-December, Goldman said that supply shortages and insufficient investment in new supply would result in a bumper year for commodities in 2023.