據(jù)全球能源新聞網(wǎng)1月15日?qǐng)?bào)道，根據(jù)美國(guó)能源情報(bào)署（EIA）的預(yù)測(cè)，受非歐佩克產(chǎn)量大幅增長(zhǎng)的推動(dòng)，2024年全球液體燃料日產(chǎn)量將從2022年的1億桶增至1.028億桶。然而，產(chǎn)能大國(guó)石油供應(yīng)的不確定性將持續(xù)存在，特別是在2023年初。全球液體燃料消費(fèi)量預(yù)計(jì)將從2022年的平均9940萬(wàn)桶/天增加到2024年的1.022億桶/天。然而，對(duì)全球經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況的持續(xù)擔(dān)憂，增加了需求預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果的不確定性。由于預(yù)測(cè)全球石油產(chǎn)量高于消費(fèi)量，預(yù)計(jì)未來(lái)兩年全球石油庫(kù)存將增加。

據(jù)EIA預(yù)測(cè)，2023年布倫特原油均價(jià)為每桶83美元，較2022年下降18%，隨著全球石油庫(kù)存的增加，2024年將繼續(xù)下跌至78美元/桶，從而給原油價(jià)格帶來(lái)下行壓力。

郝芬 譯自 全球能源新聞網(wǎng)

原文如下：

EIA – GLOBAL LIQUID FUELS TO EXCEED 102 MILLION BARRELS PER DAY IN 2024

According to the EIA (US Energy Information Administration) Global production of liquid fuels in its forecast will reach an average of 102.8 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2024, up from 100.0 million b/d in 2022, driven by large growth in non-OPEC production. However, uncertainty over the third producer's oil supply will persist, particularly in early 2023. Global consumption of liquid fuels are expected to increase from an average of 99.4 million b/d in 2022 to 102.2 million b/d in 2024. ongoing concerns about global economic conditions , however, increase the uncertainty of the outcomes of the demand forecasts. With more global oil production than consumption in the forecast, global oil inventories are expected to increase over the next two years.

The EIA forecasts that the Brent crude oil price will average $83 per barrel in 2023, down 18% from 2022, and continue to fall to $78/b in 2024 as global oil inventories build, putting downward pressure on crude oil prices.