據美國鉆井網站2022年12月27日報道，過去的一年是石油和天然氣行業的豐收年，油價上漲至十年來的高點。《投資新聞》(Investing News)近日發布了一份未來一年值得留心的記事清單。

疫情封鎖后的需求復蘇與對制裁造成的供應中斷相結合，推動西得克薩斯中質原油和布倫特原油在2022年上半年升至每桶120美元。下半年原油價格開始走低，這兩種原油的價格在年底均將保持在年初的水平。

與此同時，由于地緣政治沖突給全球市場和經濟注入了不確定性，歐洲的天然氣供應面臨障礙。截至8月份，用于家庭供暖的燃料價格已達到9.71美元/百萬英熱單位的14年來的高點。

FocusEconomics小組成員馬修·坎寧安說：“今年油價的大部分波動是由地緣政治沖突引起的——到3月初，油價飆升了30%左右——以及后來西方國家及其盟友宣布制裁。由于涉及北約的戰爭不太可能大幅升級，而且大多數重大制裁措施已經宣布，戰爭不太可能導致價格像2022年那樣大幅飆升或暴跌。

在高通脹和利率上升的背景下，全球經濟前景惡化，能源價格走低。11月份，原油價格跌至每桶90美元以下，此后一直保持在這一水平。

Fulp地質學家米奇·富爾普說：“這基本上是2022年的最低點。”“這在很大程度上與全球封鎖減少了需求有關，而高油價也減少了美國的需求。”

摩根大通經濟和政策研究主管布魯斯·卡斯曼寫道：“由于冬季將加劇疫情問題和歐洲的天然氣危機，全球增長前景仍然低迷，但我們認為全球經濟不會在2023年初陷入衰退。供應鏈和大宗商品價格沖擊的減弱，正在緩解金融狀況的拖累。”

值得注意的是，2022年的高通脹和嚴格的貨幣政策使全球GDP增長幾乎減半，從2021年的6%降至3.2%。預計到2023年，這一數字將萎縮至2.7%。是自2001年以來最疲弱的增長時期。 

石油和天然氣供應問題將持續存在

世界一直指望石油輸出國組織(歐佩克)提高原油產量。

11月份，歐佩克原油日產量減少了31萬桶。今年的第11個月也看到了歐佩克未能完成每天181萬桶的預期配額。另一方面，進入歐洲的液化天然氣進口激增，推動這種取暖燃料的價格降至5.28美元，為今年3月以來的最低點。

對于石油來說，供應仍然是一個問題。各國不僅需要確保穩定的石油供應以保持經濟運行，而且美國等國還需要補充今年早些時候動用的戰略石油儲備。

2022年，美國從戰略石油儲備中釋放了1.8億桶原油，收入40億美元。目前，美國戰略石油儲備為3.7862億桶，低于一年前的5.9892億桶。

Fulp說：“他們沒有為任何石油和天然氣企業提供資金，因此企業無法籌集到資金，產量也持平。”“自從我們從疫情流行中恢復以來，美國的產量一年半以來基本上一直持平，而且沒有上升。”

根據Fulp地質學家的說法，如果美國能找到更有效的國際運輸方式，它就有機會獲得液化天然氣。

石油和天然氣公司預計將表現良好

盡管機構投資者已經遠離石油和天然氣，但油氣行業在2022年仍獲得了巨大利潤。今年的強勁表現使惠譽評級(Fitch Ratings)給予油氣行業穩定展望評級。

報告指出：“2023年油氣行業的表現將與2022年大體一致，并明顯強于周期中期。”“我們預計明年石油和天然氣的平均價格將有所緩和，尤其是由于經濟放緩，但由于產能大國和歐佩克+的謹慎立場，石油和天然氣供應減少，碳氫化合物市場將繼續緊張。”

油氣行業監管機構預計，75%的石油和天然氣公司在分紅后的自由現金流為正。

高級總監Dmitry Marinchenko在一份報告中表示：“盡管一些國家引入了暴利稅，但全球石油和天然氣公司仍將繼續公布高收益。通貨膨脹會產生影響，但大多數油氣公司在低油價期間都大幅降低了成本，這將有助于他們的現金流。 ”

穆迪對未來一年持樂觀態度，認為亞洲需求增長將成為價格的催化劑。

根據惠譽的說法，如果歐佩克+保持謹慎，備用產能可能會受到影響，為價格增加利好因素。但更大規模、更長期的能源轉型可能導致需求放緩和價格疲軟。

2023年石油和天然氣價格預計將出現波動

FocusEconomic小組成員認為，受到最近削減產量配額的限制，2023年歐佩克的原油產量預計將基本停滯不前。由于更嚴厲的制裁，世界第三大產油國原油產量將下降，而美國的原油產量將增長，盡管由于頁巖生產商最近鉆井活動疲軟，增長速度有限。

因此，2023年的原油價格預計將出現一些波動，整體平均價格將比2022年低7%左右。此外，不確定性將使油價保持在過去十年的最高水平，維持在每桶90美元的水平。

李峻 編譯自 美國鉆井網站

原文如下：

Top Trends To Affect Oil and Gas In 2023

The past year was a banner year for the oil and gas sector as prices rallied to decade highs. Investing News published a list of things to look out for in the coming year.

A resurgence in demand following pandemic lockdowns converged with supply disruptions caused by sanctions , driving West Texas Intermediate and Brent crude to $120 per barrel during the first half of the year. Values began to trend lower in H2, leaving both crude types on course to end the year in the same price territory as they started.

Meanwhile, European natural gas supply faced hurdles as the war infused global markets and economies with uncertainty. By August, prices for the fuel used to heat homes had reached a 14 year high of $9.71 MMBtu.

Investing News quoted FocusEconomics claiming the war severely disrupted energy supply，which last year accounted for more than 10 percent of world crude supply and 40 percent of Europe’s natural gas imports.

“Most of the volatility seen in oil prices this year was caused by the announcement of the war— with prices spiking around 30 percent by early March — and the later announcement of sanctions by western countries and their allies. With a major escalation of the war involving NATO unlikely, and most significant sanctions already announced, the war is less likely to cause prices to spike or plummet as sharply as in 2022,” FocusEconomics panelist Matthew Cunningham said.

Amid high inflation and rising interest rates, the global economic outlook has worsened and pushed energy prices lower. Prices for crude fell below $90 in November and have remained at that level since.

“It's basically at a year-to-date low,” Mercenary Geologist Mickey Fulp said. “A lot of that has to do with lockdowns decreasing demand, and high gas prices have decreased demand in the US.”

“With the winter set to aggravate COVID problems and Europe’s natural gas crisis, the global growth outlook remains depressed, but we do not see the global economy at imminent risk of sliding into recession in early 2023. The financial conditions drag is being cushioned by a fading of supply chain and commodity price shocks,” wrote Bruce Kasman, head of economic and policy research at JPMorgan.

It is worth noting that 2022’s high inflation and strict monetary policy have shrunk global GDP growth by almost half, from 6 percent in 2021 to 3.2 percent. That number is forecast to contract to 2.7 percent in 2023, representing the weakest growth period since 2001.

Oil and gas supply questions to persist

The world has looked to the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to ramp up production.

In November, OPEC production contracted by 310,000 barrels per day. The 11th month of the year also saw the oil cartel fail to meet its projected quota by as much as 1.81 million barrels per day. On the flip side LNG imports into Europe jumped, helping to bring the price of the heating fuel to US$5.28, its lowest point since March.

For oil, supply remains a concern. Not only will countries need to secure a steady supply to keep their economies running, but nations like the US will also need to replenish reserves they tapped into earlier this year.

In 2022, the US released 180 million barrels of crude from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve, raking in a total of US$4 billion. Currently, the reserve houses 378.62 million barrels, down from 598.92 million one year ago.

“They are not funding any oil and gas ventures, so companies cannot raise money and their production is flat,” Fulp said. “Production has been flat in the US for basically a year and a half now since we recovered from the pandemic, and it's not going higher.”

According to the Mercenary Geologist, the US has an opportunity regarding LNG if it can find more efficient ways to transport it internationally.

Oil and gas companies expected to perform well

Even though institutional investors have moved away from oil and gas, the sector saw significant profits in 2022. The year’s strong performance has led to Fitch Ratings giving the sector a stable outlook score.

“Sector performance in 2023 will remain broadly in line with that in 2022 and significantly stronger than in the mid-cycle,” it states. “We expect average oil and gas prices to moderate in 2023, not least because of an economic slowdown, but the hydrocarbon markets will remain tight due to lower oil and in particular natural gas supplies from the third largest oil-producing nation and OPEC+’s cautious stance.”

The industry watchdog expects 75 percent of oil and gas companies to report positive free cash flow after dividends.

“[Oil and gas] companies across the globe will continue to report high earnings despite windfall taxes introduced by some countries. Inflation will bite but most companies have significantly reduced costs during the period of low oil prices, which will contribute to their cash flows,” Senior Director Dmitry Marinchenko said in a report.

Optimistic about the year ahead, the ratings group believes demand growth out of Asia will be a price catalyst. 

Spare capacity could be impacted if OPEC+ remains cautious, adding tailwinds to values, as per Fitch. But the larger, longer-term energy transition could lead to slowing demand and price weakness.

Expect oil and gas price volatility in 2023

FocusEconomic panelists see production from OPEC largely stagnating in 2023, capped by the recent output quota cut.production will fall due to tighter sanctions, while output in the US is set to grow, albeit at a limited rate because of recent weak drilling activity by shale producers.

As a result, prices are expected to see some volatility with crude prices overall to average around 7 percent lower in 2023 than they did in 2022. Also, uncertainty will keep prices at the highest levels in the past decade, holding in the $90 level.