據美國油價網2022年8月25日報道，瑞士聯合銀行（瑞銀/UBS）策略師預計，油價在未來幾個月將反彈至每桶125美元，原因是基本面因素指向油價上漲，備用產能正在減少，庫存處于多年低位。

在周四的一份研究報告中，瑞銀策略師對沙特日前有關歐佩克+可能隨時減產的評論做出了上述回應，理由是基本面與石油期貨價格之間存在“脫節”。 

瑞銀策略師還指出，歐洲海運進口石油的禁令將于12月份生效，這將對石油市場造成沖擊。

“歐盟打算在12月5日前減少對海運原油進口的依賴，在明年2月5日前減少對成品油進口的依賴。 據《國家新聞報》報道，這可能會造成一些供應中斷，因為產能大國7月份向歐盟日出口原油達到280萬桶。”

瑞銀策略師表示，經合組織成員國停止釋放戰略石油儲備，將從11月份開始導致市場每日減少100多萬桶原油供應。  

瑞銀策略師認為，這將導致“今年年底全球石油市場趨緊”。  

本周早些時候，沙特阿拉伯能源大臣就歐佩克+可能削減石油產量發表了評論。 從那時起，油價又回升到每桶100美元以上。  

市場還將經濟增長放緩視為油價看跌因素。

李峻 編譯自 美國油價網

原文如下：

UBS Sees $125 Oil In The ’Coming Months

Swiss UBS strategists predict that oil will rebound to $125 in the coming months as fundamentals point to higher prices, spare capacity is ebbing and inventories are at multi-year lows. 

In a Thursday research note, UBS responded to Saudi comments to the effect that OPEC+ could cut production at any time, citing a “disconnect” between fundamentals and oil futures prices. 

The bank also noted coming disruption to oil markets when a European ban on the larger producer seaborne oil imports goes into effect in December. 

"The European Union intends to cut its dependence on the larger producer waterborne crude imports by December 5 and refined products by February 5. This will likely cause some disruptions as oil imports to the EU amounted to 2.8m bpd in July,” the research note said, as reported by The National News.  

UBS strategists said an end of releases from strategic petroleum reserves in OECD countries would end up taking more than 1 million barrels per day off the market beginning in November. 

This would lead to “tighter markets at the end of the year”, UBS wrote.  

The comments regarding OPEC+’s potential to cut oil production came from the Saudi Energy MInister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman earlier this week. Since then, oil prices have risen back above $100 per barrel. 

The market has also been factoring in slowing economic growth as a bearish weight.