據(jù)美國鉆井網(wǎng)站2022年3月9日?qǐng)?bào)道，美國能源信息署(EIA)發(fā)布的 3月短期能源展望(STEO)報(bào)告顯示，EIA把今年布倫特原油現(xiàn)貨平均價(jià)格預(yù)測(cè)每桶上調(diào)了22美元。  

EIA目前預(yù)測(cè)，今年布倫特原油的平均現(xiàn)貨價(jià)格將為每桶105.22美元，與2月份的STEO預(yù)測(cè)的今年布倫特原油的平均現(xiàn)貨價(jià)格為每桶82.87美元相比，大幅上調(diào)了22.35美元。

EIA在最新的STEO報(bào)告中強(qiáng)調(diào)，2月份布倫特原油現(xiàn)貨均價(jià)為每桶97美元，比1月份上漲了11美元。 EIA在3月STEO報(bào)告中指出，布倫特原油現(xiàn)貨價(jià)格在3月的第一周里報(bào)收于每桶近124美元。

EIA警告稱，這些事件發(fā)生的背景是低石油庫存和持續(xù)上漲的油價(jià)壓力，并補(bǔ)充稱，自2020年年中以來，全球石油庫存一直在穩(wěn)步下降。 EIA強(qiáng)調(diào)，截至2月，經(jīng)合組織的商業(yè)石油庫存為26.4億桶，這是自2014年年中以來的最低水平。

EIA在3月份的STEO報(bào)告中表示：“我們預(yù)計(jì)，3月份布倫特原油均價(jià)將達(dá)到每桶117美元，今年第二季度將為116美元，今年下半年將為102美元。”

EIA在STEO報(bào)告中補(bǔ)充道：“我們預(yù)計(jì)布倫特原油平均油價(jià)將在2023年跌至每桶89美元。 然而，這一價(jià)格預(yù)測(cè)具有很大的不確定性。

此外，其他產(chǎn)油國對(duì)當(dāng)前油價(jià)的反應(yīng)程度，以及宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展可能對(duì)全球石油需求的影響，都將是未來幾個(gè)月油價(jià)形成的重要因素。

但它仍預(yù)計(jì)，從2022年第二季度到2023年底，全球石油庫存將以平均每天50萬桶的速度增加。 EIA強(qiáng)調(diào)，預(yù)計(jì)這將給原油價(jià)格帶來下行壓力。

EIA在3月份的STEO報(bào)告中表示：“然而，如果其他地區(qū)的石油生產(chǎn)中斷超過我們的預(yù)測(cè)，那么原油價(jià)格將高于我們的預(yù)測(cè)。“

撰寫本文時(shí)，布倫特原油價(jià)格為每桶130.09美元。 去年這個(gè)時(shí)候，布倫特原油的價(jià)格在每桶67美元左右。 

李峻 編譯自 美國鉆井網(wǎng)站

原文如下：

EIA Makes Huge 2022 Oil Price Forecast Adjustment

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has raised its 2022 Brent spot average price forecast by more than $22 per barrel, the organization’s March Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO) has revealed.

The EIA now projects that the average Brent spot price will be $105.22 per barrel this year, which marks a $22.35 difference compared to its February STEO, which forecasted that the Brent spot price would average $82.87 per barrel in 2022.

In its latest STEO, the EIA highlighted that Brent crude oil spot prices averaged $97 per barrel in February, which the organization outlined was an $11 per barrel increase from January. The EIA noted in the March STEO that daily spot prices for Brent closed at almost $124 per barrel in the first week of March .

These events are occurring against a backdrop of low oil inventories and persistent upward oil price pressures, the EIA warned, adding that global oil inventories have fallen steadily since mid-2020. The EIA highlighted that commercial inventories in the OECD ended February at 2.64 billion barrels, which it said is the lowest level since mid-2014.

“We expect the Brent price will average $117 per barrel in March, $116 per barrel in 2Q22, and $102 per barrel in the second half of 2022,” the EIA stated in its March STEO.

“We expect the average price to fall to $89 per barrel in 2023. However, this price forecast is highly uncertain. any independent corporate actions affect oil production or the sale of oil in the global market,” the EIA added in the STEO.

“In addition, the degree to which other oil producers respond to current oil prices, as well as the effects macroeconomic developments might have on global oil demand, will be important for oil price formation in the coming months,” the EIA continued.

Although the EIA reduced oil production in its latest forecast, it still expects that global oil inventories will build at an average rate of 500,000 barrels per day from the second quarter of 2022 through the end of 2023. The organization highlighted that it expects this will put downward pressure on crude oil prices.

“However, if production disruptions - or elsewhere - are more than we forecast, resulting crude oil prices would be higher than our forecast,” the EIA said in its March STEO.

At the time of writing, the price of Brent crude oil stood at $130.09 per barrel. This time last year, Brent was trading at around $67 per barrel.