據(jù)油價(jià)網(wǎng)3月2日消息稱(chēng)，隨著能源轉(zhuǎn)型的加快，各國(guó)和消費(fèi)者都在努力實(shí)現(xiàn)脫碳，全球電池需求可能呈指數(shù)級(jí)增長(zhǎng)，到2030年將達(dá)到每年9太瓦時(shí)(TWh)，是2021年水平的15倍。

Rystad Energy 研究表明，盡管 2021 年全球電池需求為 580 吉瓦時(shí) (GWh)，是 2020 年總量的兩倍多，但全球供應(yīng)仍然能夠保持下去。然而，隨著人們對(duì)乘用車(chē)電池技術(shù)和固定存儲(chǔ)技術(shù)的需求大幅增長(zhǎng)，這一局面將在未來(lái)幾年發(fā)生改變，這將給供應(yīng)鏈帶來(lái)壓力。

這一需求預(yù)測(cè)與全球變暖1.6度的情景和能源系統(tǒng)所需的變化是一致的。它也不受任何潛在供應(yīng)問(wèn)題的限制。在零部件方面，鋰離子電池將在這十年主導(dǎo)市場(chǎng)，而鈉離子電池的需求將在2030年實(shí)現(xiàn)。

乘用電動(dòng)汽車(chē) (EV) 將成為未來(lái)電池增長(zhǎng)的最重要貢獻(xiàn)者，到本世紀(jì)二十年代末將占總需求的 55% 左右。到2030年，這些電池的需求預(yù)計(jì)將達(dá)到4.9太瓦時(shí)，比2021年相對(duì)較小的373吉瓦時(shí)的總需求高出13倍以上。

固定存儲(chǔ)將是第二重要的貢獻(xiàn)者，預(yù)計(jì)到2030年的需求將超過(guò)2.5太瓦時(shí)，占總市場(chǎng)的29%。隨著世界逐漸遠(yuǎn)離化石燃料，不穩(wěn)定的可再生能源將扮演更重要的角色，因此到2021年，存儲(chǔ)需求將從139吉瓦時(shí)飆升。

輕型至中型商用車(chē)在未來(lái)將主要實(shí)現(xiàn)電氣化，到2030年將貢獻(xiàn)約1太瓦時(shí)的需求。電氣化的航空和航運(yùn)也會(huì)有電池需求，但這些行業(yè)的總需求不會(huì)對(duì)全球格局產(chǎn)生重大影響。

Rystad Energy全球能源系統(tǒng)負(fù)責(zé)人Marius Foss說(shuō)：“隨著能源轉(zhuǎn)型的加快，電池需求的增長(zhǎng)是不可避免的，但在不久的將來(lái)，如果沒(méi)有對(duì)電池技術(shù)的大量投資或改進(jìn)，全球供應(yīng)將出現(xiàn)短缺。根據(jù)已公布的目標(biāo)，到2030年電池供應(yīng)將達(dá)到5.5太瓦時(shí)，只能滿(mǎn)足約60%的預(yù)期需求。超級(jí)工廠正在全球迅速建立，這種供應(yīng)前景可能會(huì)改變。然而，這些持續(xù)投資的重要性不容低估。”

曹海斌 摘譯自 油價(jià)網(wǎng)

原文如下：

Global Battery Demand To Increase 15-Fold As EV Boom Takes Off

As the energy transition quickens and countries and consumers strive to decarbonize, global battery demand could surge exponentially and approach nine terawatt-hours (TWh) annually by 2030, 15 times the levels seen in 2021.

Rystad Energy research shows that although global battery demand in 2021 stood at 580 gigawatt-hours (GWh), more than double 2020’s total, global supply was still able to keep up. However, that is set to change in the coming years as the appetite for battery technologies in passenger vehicles and stationary storage grows significantly, straining the supply chain.

This demand projection is in line with a 1.6-degree global warming scenario and the changes required to energy systems. It is also unconstrained by any potential supply issues. In terms of components, lithium-ion batteries will dominate the market this decade, although sodium-ion battery demand will materialize by 2030.

Passenger electric vehicles (EV) will be the most significant contributor to future battery growth, accounting for about 55% of total demand by the end of the decade. Demand for these batteries is expected to hit 4.9 TWh by 2030, more than 13 times higher than 2021’s comparatively tiny total of 373 GWh.

Stationary storage will be the next-most significant contributor, with a projected demand of more than 2.5 TWh in 2030, 29% of the total market. The need for storage is set to soar from 139 GWh in 2021 because of the more prominent role that volatile renewable energy sources will play as the world shifts away from fossil fuels.

Light to medium-heavy commercial vehicles will mainly be electrified in the future, contributing about 1 TWh of demand by 2030. Electrified aviation and shipping will also have battery needs, but the total demand from these sectors will not significantly impact the global picture.

“Battery demand growth is inevitable as the energy transition quickens, but global supply will fall short without substantial investment or improvements in battery technology in the immediate future. based on announced targets, battery supply will hit 5.5 TWh by 2030, meeting only about 60% of the expected demand. Gigafactories are being built quickly worldwide, and this supply outlook will likely change. Still, the importance of these continued investments cannot be understated,” says Marius Foss, head of global energy systems at Rystad Energy.