據(jù)ICIS-MRC網(wǎng)站3月3日莫斯科報(bào)道，根據(jù)烴加工網(wǎng)信息顯示，EIA在其2月份的短期能源展望（STEO）中，對(duì)美國(guó)生物柴油、可再生柴油和其他生物燃料的生產(chǎn)、消費(fèi)以及凈進(jìn)口少于出口進(jìn)行了新的預(yù)測(cè)。

這一新突破為美國(guó)可再生柴油生產(chǎn)提供了更詳細(xì)的預(yù)測(cè)。在之前發(fā)布的STEO中，EIA預(yù)測(cè)了以生物質(zhì)為基礎(chǔ)的柴油消費(fèi)量，將美國(guó)消耗的生物柴油的生產(chǎn)和進(jìn)口總量加在一起。進(jìn)口可再生柴油量，不包括國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)的可再生柴油。將生物柴油與可再生柴油區(qū)分開(kāi)來(lái)，可以更精確地計(jì)算基于生物質(zhì)的柴油。

與生物柴油一樣，可再生柴油的使用也符合美國(guó)環(huán)保局(EPA)管理的《可再生燃料標(biāo)準(zhǔn)》(RFS)中關(guān)于生物質(zhì)柴油可再生量的規(guī)定。這兩種燃料還滿(mǎn)足了RFS對(duì)非纖維素先進(jìn)生物燃料95%或更高的要求 。EPA提出的2022 年規(guī)則要求提高這兩個(gè)類(lèi)別的產(chǎn)量。此外，包括加利福尼亞州的低碳燃料標(biāo)準(zhǔn)和俄勒岡州的清潔燃料計(jì)劃在內(nèi)的州級(jí)項(xiàng)目，已經(jīng)鼓勵(lì)幾家煉油廠(chǎng)改用可再生柴油。由于這些改造和可再生柴油煉油廠(chǎng)的新建，EIA預(yù)計(jì)到2023年底，美國(guó)可再生柴油的產(chǎn)能將從目前的7.7萬(wàn)桶/日增加近兩倍。

根據(jù)可再生柴油工廠(chǎng)建設(shè)和 EPA 提出的 2022 RFS 規(guī)則，EIA 預(yù)測(cè)可再生柴油產(chǎn)量將在2022年和2023年顯著增加。

EIA還認(rèn)為，美國(guó)可再生柴油產(chǎn)能的大幅提升，將給本已高企的原料油價(jià)格增加上行壓力，從而限制其預(yù)測(cè)中的實(shí)際產(chǎn)量增長(zhǎng)。

郝芬 譯自 ICIS-MRC

原文如下：

EIA inctorduces new forecasts of renewable diesel and other biofuels

In the EIA’s February Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), they introduced new forecasts of US production, consumption, and the net of imports less exports of biodiesel, renewable diesel, and other biofuels in the US, according to Hydrocarbonprocessing.

This new breakout provides a more detailed forecast for U.S. renewable diesel production. In previous STEO releases, the EIA forecast biomass-based diesel consumption, which combined all production and imports of biodiesel consumed in the US. with imported volumes of renewable diesel, not including domestically produced renewable diesel. Differentiating biodiesel from renewable diesel, provides a more precise accounting of biomass-based diesel.

Like biodiesel, renewable diesel is used to comply with the renewable volume obligations for biomass-based diesel in the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) administered by the US. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). The two fuels also supply 95% or more of the RFS requirement for non-cellulosic advanced biofuels. The EPA’s proposed rule for 2022 calls for higher production in both of these categories. In addition, state-level programs, including California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard and Oregon’s Clean Fuels Program, have encouraged several petroleum refineries to convert to renewable diesel. As a result of these conversions and new construction of renewable diesel refineries, the EIA expects US production capacity of renewable diesel to nearly triple by the end of 2023 from the current production capacity of 77,000 bpd.

based on renewable diesel plant construction and the EPA’s proposed rule for the 2022 RFS, the EIA forecasts that renewable diesel production will increase significantly in 2022 and 2023.

The EIA also assumes a significant ramp-up in the US production capacity of renewable diesel will add upward pressure to already high feedstock oil prices, which limits actual production growth in their forecast.