據(jù)1月13日The Punch報(bào)道，國際石油基準(zhǔn)布倫特原油周三攀升至每桶84美元以上，原因是供應(yīng)緊張，市場緩解了對(duì)奧密克戎病毒對(duì)需求潛在影響的擔(dān)憂。
截至尼日利亞時(shí)間周三晚7點(diǎn)，布倫特原油價(jià)格上漲1.42美元，至每桶85.14美元。OANDA亞太高級(jí)市場分析師Jeffrey Halley在一份報(bào)告中表示，本季度布倫特油價(jià)可能會(huì)接近100美元/桶。
他表示，“假設(shè)經(jīng)濟(jì)不會(huì)急劇放緩，那么奧密克戎的影響微乎其微，而且歐佩克+提高產(chǎn)量能力明顯有限，我認(rèn)為布倫特原油沒有理由不能在第一季度達(dá)到每桶100美元，可能更早就能達(dá)到這一水平。不過“話雖如此，我承認(rèn)未來會(huì)有很多不同結(jié)果，最大的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)是疫情在亞洲的影響”。
Rigzone周二報(bào)告稱，美國能源信息署引其1月份短期能源展望，上調(diào)了布倫特2022年現(xiàn)貨平均價(jià)格預(yù)測(cè)。該組織目前預(yù)計(jì)，今年布倫特原油現(xiàn)貨價(jià)格平均為每桶74.95美元，比EIA去年12月在STEO上預(yù)測(cè)的每桶70.05美元高出4.9美元。
最新STEO預(yù)測(cè)，展望2023年，布倫特原油平均現(xiàn)貨價(jià)格2023年將首次跌至每桶67.50美元。EIA 1月份STEO報(bào)告指出，2021年布倫特原油現(xiàn)貨均價(jià)為每桶70.89美元。
該組織預(yù)計(jì)，到2022年，全球液體燃料消費(fèi)量將每天增加360萬桶，到2023年將增加180萬桶。預(yù)計(jì)到2022年，歐佩克原油產(chǎn)量將增加250萬桶/天，達(dá)到日均2880萬桶，到2023年將再增加10萬桶/天，達(dá)到日均2890萬桶。
EIA指出，其最新STEO反映出，由于當(dāng)前疫情影響，油價(jià)走勢(shì)的不確定性增加。
王佳晶 摘譯自 The Punch
原文如下：
Oil price surges above $85 amid Omicron impact
The international oil benchmark, Brent crude, climbed above $84 per barrel on Wednesday on tight supply and easing concerns about the potential impact of Omicron coronavirus variant on demand.
Brent, against which Nigeria’s crude oil is priced, rose by $1.42 to $85.14 per barrel as of 7.00pm Nigerian time on Wednesday.
The Senior Market Analyst, Asia Pacific at OANDA, Jeffrey Halley, said in a note that Bent could move towards $100 per barrel this quarter.
He said, “Assuming the economic doesn’t suffer a sharp slowdown, that omicron actually becomes omi-gone, and with OPEC+’s ability to raise production clearly limited, I see no reason why Brent crude cannot move towards $100.00 in Q1, possibly sooner.
“Having said that, I acknowledge there are plenty of variable outcomes in the previous sentence, the biggest threat being omicron in Asia.”
Rigzone reported on Tuesday that the US Energy Information Administration raised its Brent spot average price forecast for 2022, citing its January short-term energy outlook has revealed.
The organisation now sees Brent spot prices averaging $74.95 per barrel this year, which marks a $4.90 increase on its previous 2022 projection of $70.05, which was made in the EIA’s December STEO.
Looking ahead to 2023 for the first time, the latest STEO forecasts that average Brent spot prices will drop to $67.50 per barrel next year. Brent spot prices averaged $70.89 per barrel in 2021, the EIA’s January STEO highlighted.
The organisation expects global liquid fuels consumption will grow by 3.6 million barrels per day in 2022 and by 1.8 million barrels per day in 2023. OPEC crude oil production is expected to rise by 2.5 million barrels per day to average 28.8 million barrels per day in 2022 and by a further 100,000 barrels per day in 2023 to average 28.9 million barrels per day.
The EIA notes that its latest STEO continues to reflect heightened levels of uncertainty as a result of the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic.
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