據Energiesnet網1月3日倫敦報道，就在歐佩克及其盟國考慮再次增產的前一天，該組織下調了對本季度全球石油市場盈余的估計。

該結果可能會鼓勵OPEC+的23個成員國繼續進行小幅增產，代表們在周二開會時表示預計產量會有所增加。以沙特阿拉伯和俄羅斯為首的該聯盟正在逐步恢復疫情期間停止的日產40萬桶的增產量。

根據石油輸出國組織（OPEC）及其盟國周一進行的內部研究顯示，該組織在2022年前三個月的每日盈余為140萬桶，比一個月前的估計減少約25%。這一變化的主要驅動力是聯盟競爭對手的供應前景減弱。

由于需求前景更為強勁，2022年的總體情況也略為強勁，全年日均盈余140萬桶，而不是委員會上個月看到的170萬桶。由位于維也納的歐佩克內部研究部匯編的該報告，正在由該聯盟的聯合技術委員會代表部長們進行評估。

石油期貨價格上漲，紐約市場早7點16分，西德克薩斯中質原油(West Texas Intermediate)上漲0.7%，至每桶75.76美元。

歐佩克重申，其認為奧密克戎變種的影響是“溫和而短暫的”，因為“世界變得更有能力應對新冠疫情及其相關挑戰”。

該報告還指出，歐佩克+可能在2022年晚些時候面臨更大的盈余。該組織曾多次表示，如果需要，它可以暫停甚至取消原定的供應增加計劃。

郝芬 譯自 能源網

原文如下：

OPEC Sees Tighter First Quarter As It Considers Output Hike

OPEC reduced its estimate of the surplus in global oil markets this quarter, the day before the group and its allies consider another output boost.

The findings may encourage the 23-nation OPEC+ coalition to proceed with the modest production increase that delegates say is expected when they gather on Tuesday. The alliance led by Saudi Arabia and Russia is gradually restoring output halted during the pandemic in installments of 400,000 barrels a day. 

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries sees a surplus of 1.4 million barrels a day in the first three months of 2022, about 25 per cent smaller than it estimated a month ago, according to internal research being reviewed by the group and its allies on Monday. The main driver of the change was a weaker outlook for supply from the coalition’s rivals.

The overall picture for 2022 is also slightly stronger as a result of a more robust demand outlook, with an average full-year surplus of 1.4 million barrels a day instead of the 1.7 million seen by the committee last month. The report, compiled by OPEC’s internal research department in Vienna, is being assessed by the alliance’s Joint Technical Committee on behalf of ministers. 

Oil futures rose. West Texas Intermediate crude gained 0.7 per cent to US$75.76 a barrel at 7:16 a.m. in New York. 

OPEC reiterated that it sees a “mild and short-lived” impact from the omicron variant, as “the world becomes better equipped to manage COVID-19 and its related challenges.”

The report also indicates that OPEC+ could face deeper surpluses later in 2022. The group has said several time that it has the option of pausing or even reversing its scheduled supply increases if needed.